In only their second meeting, Matt Ryan might have to carry the Falcons past Andy Dalton. Let’s dive into the numbers behind the Falcons vs Bengals matchup.

The Falcons experienced most of their devastating injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That means that for better or worse the Offense will have to carry this team.

Atlanta Falcons-Cincinnati Bengals: A Detailed Breakdown of the Matchup

When the Falcons Have the Ball

The Bengals match up well with the Falcons, with the notable exception being the run game. The Falcons so far have struggled to establish an efficient ground game. The Bengals front seven is stout and will pose a challenge. Let’s have detailed look how the Falcons can flip the table in this matchup.

The Falcons have been a predominantly wide zone run team through Dan Quinn’s tenure. In 2018, only 19 percent of their running back carries came behind center or guard. This is by far the lowest rate of the league. The second-lowest is Washington at 35 percent while the league average is 55 percent (!).

Part of that is injuries (Andy Levitre) but part of it is also smart scheming. When you play Fletcher Cox and Kawaan Short in your first two weeks, running up the middle invites trouble. Nevertheless, on the few occasions that the Falcons did run up the middle, they lead the league on ALY, Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards stat. Opponents were so focused on taking away the Falcons bread and butter – the wide zone – that the counter move up the middle developed a significant punch.

The Bengals, on the other hand, only have the 25th best run defense up the middle. It will be an interesting chess match to see if Steve Sarkisian will dial up more runs up the middle to surprise Teryl Austin.

First Down Runs

Of particular note here is first down. The Bengals got dominated by both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Wilkins on first down runs with success rates of 71 percent and 60 percent respectively. Especially out of 11 personnel, runs on first down work against this defense. 17 carries so far have produced 7.5 yards per carry and a 71 percent success rate. This ranks the Bengals defense as the by far worst run defense on 11 personnel runs on first downs so far.

When the Falcons run the ball on first down, they do it quite often out of 11 personnel (55 percent of the time). Their success rate of 61 percent ranks seventh in the league in those situations.  They have a mismatch here to exploit, if they want to.

In the pass game, the Bengals are great at taking away number one wide receivers ever since William Jackson’s emergence as a shutdown corner. Julio Jones might have a hard time dominating this one. Keep an eye out for Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith in the pass game. The Bengals allow the 25th best DVOA on passes to running backs. Their linebacking corps is thinned out with the suspension of Vontaze Burfict.

When the Bengals Have the Ball

The Bengals should have no trouble scoring against a decimated Falcons defense. Especially with the way they have protected Andy Dalton so far, there is very little hope for an anemic Falcons pass rush to get through.

The Bengals offense can pick and choose which way to attack the Falcons. On the ground, runs around left end (second vs 20th in ALY) and behind right tackle and at Vic Beasley (third vs 27th) are very favorable matchups. The Bengals run most of their runs inside (42 percent) where the Falcons rank 28th in defending them.

In terms of success rate, the Bengals have the fourth-best run game so far. The Falcons run defense ranks 31st. The Bengals will have no trouble chewing up clock or run out a lead. They can keep the Falcons offense on the sideline and/or control the tempo of the game if they chose to do so.

The Andy Dalton Checkdown Show

In the pass game, the Falcons will lack the playmakers to cover Tyler Eifert. Brian Poole has struggled to cover the opponents’ other wide receivers (Falcons rank 31st in passing DVOA defending them). John Ross certainly appreciates that.

The Falcons actually rank okay defending the deep ball (eighth) which has always been a staple of Dan Quinn defenses. With their recent tackling issues though, they are simply giving away free yards and first downs underneath on short throws (26th).

The Importance of Fullbacks

The Bengals will also look to win this side of the ball with their 12 personnel. It’s their second favorite grouping and the most successful one with a 72 percent success rate. When they run behind a fullback, their success rate climbs to 82 percent.

The Falcons allow a 54 percent success rate versus 12 personnel, so it will be interesting to see how they defend this wrinkle. The Falcons have only faced seven runs out of 12 personnel so far this season. We will find out about this aspect of their game on Sunday.

Falcons vs Bengals: The Outlook

This game will be hard to win for the Falcons. The Bengals are the type of team that they struggle with the most. They are good at running the ball and controlling the tempo. Plus, they are capable of keeping Matt Ryan on the sidelines and still potent enough for a shootout.

The Falcons best hopes are to get out to an early lead to take away the run game and then match Andy Dalton touchdown for touchdown. Without another stellar performance by Matt Ryan, the Bengals might prove to be a bad matchup. This Falcons team does not have the physicality to keep up in the trenches.

Dan Quinn Versus Unfamiliar Teams

One last thing to note is that Dan Quinn is usually a better coach when he faces an opponent he is familiar with. He is 18-11 versus teams has already faced as head coach and 15-12 versus “new” opponents. Last year, the Falcons went 3-2 versus the teams that Quinn faced for the first time. All five games were one-score matches, with the Bears and Lions victories especially coming down to a final play.

If we look at the two losses, we see a possible blueprint for the Bengals game. The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills both came into Atlanta after two back-back-weeks where the Falcons scored 30 points or more. Both were underdogs and teams Quinn is unfamiliar with. Both tried to win the game in the trenches to keep the Falcons offense off the field and control the clock.

Another example would be the 2016 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. They were for all intents and purposes a new team with a new quarterback and head coach in town.

This is a game the Falcons have a tendency to lose. If they do emerge victorious, it will be a big step forward in salvaging a season that is threatening to get derailed by injuries.

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