The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams returned to the headlines today, agreeing to the latest trade in what has been a very active off-season for both teams. The Patriots have agreed to trade fifth-year receiver Brandin Cooks and a 2018 fourth-round pick to the Rams. In return, New England will receive the 23rd overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft and a sixth-round selection. The teams had reportedly discussed the trade for a month in advance.
Patriots and Rams have discussed a potential Brandin Cooks trade for over a month, before Rams and Giants discussed a potential Odell Beckham Jr. trade. Rams liked this situation better.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 3, 2018
Cooks, 24, finished off his first and only year in New England with strong (yet to some disappointing) numbers. The former first-round selection accumulated 1,082 yards on 65 receptions, scoring seven touchdowns while playing in all 16 games. These numbers, especially for a receiver on a rookie-scale contract, are nothing to write off. Cooks’ receiving yards total ranked 11th in the NFL in 2017, while Spotrac lists Cooks as only the 67th highest-paid receiver in the game.
This begs the question, however. Why did the Patriots decide to move on from the speedy receiver after only one season? On the surface, the answer is simple: money. Bill Belichick and the Patriots are not one to shell out record-breaking contracts in free agency (minus Stephon Gilmore). With the market paying big money to names such as Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins, the Patriots would have needed to break the bank to retain the likes of Cooks.
However, the real reasons for any Belichick move lie far below the surface. In this article, we will outline three possible motives the Patriots had to acquire more draft capital, and where the team goes from here.
After the Brandin Cooks Trade, Where Do The New England Patriots Go From Here?
Trade Up in the Draft
All Patriots fans know of Belichick’s infatuation with trades during draft time. While the usual move is a trade down, the Patriots now have enough ammunition to trade up in the draft. Under Belichick, the Patriots have never used this much early-round capital. Now owning four selections in the first two rounds of the draft (two first-round picks), New England has the ability to move upwards in the draft to fill their holes with higher-upside talent
NESN’s Doug Kyed proposed the idea of the Patriots moving up twice in the first round to acquire higher-talent players.
The Patriots could presumably move up twice in the first round. Package No. 23 and 43/63 to move up and package No. 31 and 43/63 to move up.
The Patriots also could move way up and give up everything.
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) April 3, 2018
Given this draft’s top-end talent, moving into the top five for Tom Brady’s heir apparent is likely out of the question. If the New York Giants second overall pick was available, the Buffalo Bills would have presumably traded into that selection. Given this is not happening (yet), it is not likely the Patriots can move that high up the order.
The more likely situation here is a trade into the later picks in the top ten, or potentially the early teen selections. The Indianapolis Colts have shown they are open for business, and more teams will presumably follow that path.
However, this idea only works based on how the picks align on draft night. If top names such as Minkah Fitzpatrick, Josh Jackson, or Roquan Smith slip outside the top 10 selections, any team picking can expect to field a call from Belichick. The potential is there for a Patriots trade up. For who is currently unknown.
Trade Assets For Another Star
Speaking of Cooks, he is the latest example of Belichick trading high-end draft capital for established NFL talent. The Patriots notably acquired Cooks last off-season from the New Orleans Saints in exchange for a first and third-round pick. The Patriots have never shied away from turning draft assets into established talent, and there is no reason to suspect that will change.
If the Patriots have already chosen this route, it is not without a second move in place. For Belichick to trade away a 1,000-yard receiver, the next move would presumably bring in a player even better. The Giants have reportedly shopped star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the tune of one (or more) first-round selections. Fittingly, the Patriots have two selections in the first round, and a new hole at wide receiver. A Patriots trade for Beckham is not likely but also not out of the realm of possibility.
The Patriots are not limited to trading for Cooks’ replacement, however. The team’s receiving corps is still strong with the return of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell to join Chris Hogan, Kenny Britt, and Phillip Dorsett. At the rate the off-season has been moving, no player is out of the discussion for the Patriots.
Stand Pat
Out of these three options, standing pat appears to be the best move. It is not a usual Belichick move, but potentially the smartest option available. If the Patriots move up in the draft, they might sacrifice two (or more) high draft picks for a singular player. By trading for a player such as Beckham, the team forces itself into the same situation it had with Cooks. Next off-season, the team would have to pay a high price tag to retain Beckham. This seems somewhat counterproductive to the trading of Cooks.
However, if New England stays where they are, the potential to fill more holes with more young talent early arises. By acquiring a second first-round selection, the team now has increased flexibility to address its own needs. In our pre-trade mock draft, we identified positions of need for the Patriots, who now have more assets to fill them.
The Patriots have numerous options at their newly acquired first-round choice. The team may choose to fill the left tackle void with prospects like Connor Williams, Kolton Miller, or Mike McGlinchey. Boise State linebacker Leighton Vander Esch and Boston College’s Harold Landry offer intriguing options in the early 20s.
If the Patriots choose to hang onto their early selections, they will be able to fill their biggest needs early. Adding young talent to a Super Bowl winning team is a recipe for success, and one the Patriots must not be afraid to try.
Overall Outlook
Overall, the Patriots lose an impact receiver but gain much more flexibility in this year’s draft. Not to mention, the team will increase its salary cap number to roughly $15 million for the moment, which allows for needs to be filled outside of the draft.
The Patriots’ operations are done with a very under-the-radar approach, as seen in this move. We may not know of Belichick’s true intentions until the moment they happen. In any case, we know the Patriots have set themselves up for a very exciting month ahead.
