In a highly anticipated showdown between two of the NFC’s top teams, the 8-2 New Orleans Saints will visit the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams in week 12. New Orleans currently holds third place in the NFC while the Rams sit at number four; both teams need a win in order to stay competitive with the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings for the top playoff seeds. The winner will also earn more attention and respect from the rest of the league as they enter the final stretch of the regular season.
Week 12 New Orleans Saints Keys to Victory
Another Big Rushing Performance
The Saints currently lead the NFL in yards per carry (4.8) and rushing touchdowns (15), while ranking third in yards per game (144.0). In their current eight-game win streak, New Orleans has run for over 100 yards in all but one game. That’s no coincidence as the Saints have transformed into a run-first offense behind the dynamic duo of Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara.
Run defense is one of the Rams few weaknesses. They currently rank 28th in both rushing yards and touchdowns allowed, and have given up a 4.5 yard rushing average thus far (27th in the NFL). In losses to the Washington Redskins and Vikings, Los Angeles surrendered 229 and 171 yards, respectively. They also allowed over 160 rushing yards in close wins over the Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Meanwhile the Rams are playing much better against the pass, ranking among the top ten in fewest passing yards and touchdowns allowed. They’ve also intercepted 12 passes (tied for fourth), and opposing quarterbacks have a combined 76.4 passer rating, and a 58.9% completion percentage against Los Angeles. Needless to say, the Saints should continue their emphasis on the run game this week.
Contain Running Back Todd Gurley
Like the Rams, the Saints Achilles heel is their run defense. They are giving up a 30th ranked 4.7 yards per rush, and have allowed 119 or more rushing yards in six games this season. However these struggles have yet to severely impact New Orleans because they’ve played with a lead throughout most of their games, and opponents have had to play catch up by throwing the ball. As a result, opposing offenses have 245 rushing attempts against the Saints, which is the sixth-fewest attempts against any NFL defense.
New Orleans can’t let their woes against the run show up on Sunday as they face Todd Gurley, who ranks fifth in the NFL with 791 rushing yards. He’s tied with Mark Ingram for the most rushing touchdowns with eight so far. Gurley has also quietly become a formidable receiving threat this season. Among all NFL running backs, Gurley ranks in the top ten for catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. The return of the Saints dynamic safety Kenny Vaccaro from injury this week should help New Orleans gameplan against Gurley.
Ball Control
One surprising statistic from the Rams is that their average time of possession is just 29:52. The Atlanta Falcons are the only team on track to make the postseason that’s doing worse in this area. Meanwhile the Saints have possessed the ball for an average of 32:14 this season, good for fourth in the NFL. Time of possession will depend heavily on the other two keys to victory. Whoever runs more effectively will likely control the clock.
This would be a good week for the Saints defense to get back to forcing turnovers after failing to do so last week, and recording only one takeaway in each of their previous four games. In their three losses this season, Los Angeles has turned the ball over a combined eight times, compared to only five times in their seven wins. If the Saints can force a takeaway or two early, it will help disrupt the Rams efficient offense, and quiet the home crowd.
After not turning the ball over once in their first four games, New Orleans recorded nine giveaways in their next four games. However, they have started to control the ball better again recently, recording one giveaway versus the Buffalo Bills and Redskins. The Saints need this trend to continue since Los Angeles ranks fourth in the NFL with 19 takeaways. The turnover battle may determine the outcome between these two very similar, and evenly-matched teams.
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