Last week – and for the first time in 23 years – the New England Patriots (3-1) were shut out at home. The loss certainly shocked Patriots fans given the record of success Bill Belichick has against Rex Ryan, but in true Patriots fashion the team will move on from their ugly game against the Buffalo Bills (2-2) and begin preparing for their game this Sunday against the Cleveland Browns (0-4).
This week’s preparation, however, will be different. The Patriots welcome back Tom Brady and Rob Ninkovich, who were both suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season. Both will be welcome additions after the Patriots were able to make it through the first quarter of the season with a 3-1 record and remain relatively healthy, but now that Brady is back it’s officially go-time in New England’s offensive scheme.
New England Patriots Week Five Keys to Victory
1. Brady’s Return
With Tom Brady officially back from his four game suspension for his role in “Deflategate”, the New England Patriots can finally open up the offensive playbook. Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels has to be ecstatic to have one of the NFL‘s all-time greats back under center after trotting out two backup quarterbacks to start the season.
Tom Brady is one of the league’s best at reading the opposing defense before the snap. His ability to change certain blocking assignments or routes run by receivers will open up the Browns defense and allow the Patriots to move the chains all afternoon both on the ground and through the air.
While getting Brady back on the field is great news for New England, there are no guarantees that he comes back 100% ready. He hasn’t been able to get first-team reps at practice until this week, so there may be some rust to watch out for.
2. Get off the field on third downs
This is an area the Patriots struggled with last week against the Bills; allowing them to convert on 7 of 15 attempts. The Bills were able to stay on the field and control the pace of the game, which was a key reason why the Patriots were shut out. The Patriots season numbers on third down aren’t that great either. Through four games the Patriots have allowed opponents a 46% conversion rate on third downs, which is third worst in the NFL. New England hopes the return of Rob Ninkovich will help them in those situations.
Much like LeSean McCoy, Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor has some play-making ability from multiple spots on the field. He has become the number one target in the Browns passing game as well. If the Patriots cannot force the Browns to punt in key situations, then Pryor and the league’s leading rushing offense could extend drives and put points on the board much like Buffalo did.
3. Take advantage of Cleveland’s shaky defense
Cleveland is 0-4 for a reason. The defense has given up just over 28 points per game and a lot of first downs – 92 to be exact. Of those 92, 58 have come through the air and eight have come from defensive penalties. This bodes well for Brady, as he will look to get off to a hot start in proving his doubters wrong.
Defending the run isn’t a strong suit for the Browns either, having allowed 118.2 yards per game thus far. A balance of LeGarrette Blount and James White should give the offense good match-ups all game.
The Browns’ struggles to get off the field on third downs will also be something to take advantage of. So far this season, Browns opponents have succeeded on 43% of their third down attempts. Of the 92 first downs Cleveland has allowed, 21 have been on a third down conversion. Even more alarming for Cleveland is the fact that 42% of their opponents’ drives are scoring drives.
Last Word
Dating back to 2003, the Patriots are 36-6 in games following a loss. Tom Brady will look to make that 37-6 this Sunday in his return. The Browns are the perfect opponent for the Patriots this week. Cleveland’s defense has been average at best against the pass, which favors Brady and the offense considerably.
Something else to keep an eye on is Cleveland’s weakness against the pass in the red zone. With Brady back on the field, the Patriots don’t have to rely as much on the run as they have so far. Ten of the 13 touchdowns allowed by the Browns defense this season have come through the air. This is something Josh McDaniels has to capitalize on to get the Patriots back on track after a stunning loss to Buffalo.
Prediction: New England 36 – Cleveland 20
