Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty is one of the biggest names in fantasy football, and with good reason. Despite never playing a snap at the professional level, the Boise State product is currently going off the board as the RB5 with the ninth-overall pick, per FantasyCalc Average Draft Position. Can he justify such a high ranking, or will he fail to reach such sky-high expectations out of the gate?
Fantasy Football: Ashton Jeanty Outlook
Historical Comparisons
The running back position isn’t as valuable as it used to be, yet Ashton Jeanty was still a top-10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This makes him one of the best prospects in recent memory, and just about every metric justifies this high selection.
Over the past decade, only five other running backs have been top-10 picks: Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson. Each one of these players finished as a top-10 running back as a rookie, with Barkley and Elliott putting up RB1 overall and RB2 overall finishes, respectively. This shows us running backs with top-10 draft capital are a near-guarantee to put up an RB1 season.
Four of the five aforementioned running backs immediately earned a spot among the league’s elite players, and Ashton Jeanty has the profile to be a top-five real-life running back just like those other guys. However, he still hasn’t played a snap, and prospects fail to live up to expectations all the time. So, what happens if he’s not as good as we think?
Fortunately, Leonard Fournette’s presence answers this. Fournette wasn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but the LSU product never justified his top-five draft capital. Despite this, he still finished as RB9 in 13 games, simply because his draft capital demanded a sizable workload. Going even further back, Trent Richardson finished his rookie season as the RB6, and he’s one of the most notorious busts in the game.
Draft capital sets the floor in fantasy football for Ashton Jeanty, but talent and situation set the ceiling. Barring injury, he should finish as a top-10 running back, but can he earn a top-five finish?
Ashton Jeanty’s Ceiling In Fantasy Football
Nobody should question Ashton Jeanty’s talent or opportunity as the clear-cut RB1 in Las Vegas, but can the offense support him? While nobody will confuse this unit with the 2007 New England Patriots, they have enough tools to be successful. Geno Smith is a borderline top-10 quarterback, Brock Bowers already looks like the best tight end in football, and Jakobi Meyers is a perfect second option in any passing attack. The offensive line, meanwhile, is around the middle of the pack and should be able to clear enough rushing lanes for an elite talent like Jeanty. In short, this team won’t lead the league in scoring, but Ashton Jeanty should have enough opportunities to find the endzone.
Jeany also has the benefit of playing under a run-obsessed head coach in Pete Carroll. An old-school football mind, Carroll believes in winning games with a dominant rushing attack that sets up play actions and wears down opposing defenses. Ashton Jeanty will be the heart of this offense and has an elite fantasy football ceiling with this type of coach and offensive talent. As the best running back Carroll’s worked with since Marshawn Lynch, nobody should be surprised if Jeanty finishes the season with over 300 combined touches.
This is all one long way of saying that Ashton Jeanty is a smart first-round pick in your fantasy football drafts. Carroll will use him early and often, the Raiders have a solid offense with a reliable quarterback, and Jeanty has the talent and build to handle 300 touches without losing efficiency.
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