Fantasy takeaways from the 2024 season continue today with our next installment on running backs. Our articles are designed to help you formulate your 2025 draft plan. Whether you won a high-stakes fantasy championship or are a recreational player who won your home league, you must be proactive. The NFL calendar is year-round, and savvy fantasy players are on top of past season results, coaching movement, and free agency. Our targeted focus will again be on the volatile running back positional trends and data. It is a grind but we want to offer you the best chance to build a championship roster for the 2025 fantasy season. We have two more backs to discuss and see where the data points us in preparation for 2025.
Running Back Takeaways From The 2024 Season: Part 2
James Cook Due for Running Back Regression
Full disclosure from me, I was a year or early on James Cook. I had several shares of him in 2023 when even though he closed as the overall PPR RB12, his production was backloaded. In five of his first ten games, he finished with 10 or fewer fantasy points. His best output came in weeks 14 and 15, for most, that is the fantasy playoffs. The year to be in on Cook was last season, where he not only finished as the overall RB8 but was much more consistent every week. Consistency is vital to fantasy success. In 2024, Cook had double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his first 13 games.
As we looked further into Cook’s 2024 fantasy season, we can argue few players, over-achieved more. Cook was top 11 in PPR scoring but ranked just 27th in expected scoring. That category mark was top four amongst fantasy running backs. Cook had 18 touchdowns on just 239 touches by comparison Saquan Barkley had 15 touchdowns on 378 touches. Cook’s 207 rushes ranked just 21st amongst fantasy running backs. As you can see he is due for negative regression. Our biggest takeaway, we are not so sure Cook will repeat the same fantasy success in 2025.
Is Jahmyr Gibbs Due for the Same Statistical Regression?
I am by no means telling you not to draft last season’s overall PPR RB1, but to simply consider what the data is telling us. Jamyr Gibbs, similar to Cook, scoring output exceeded his expected output last season. In weeks one through thirteen, Gibbs with David Montgomery active, ranked sixth in fantasy points per game but just 20th in expected fantasy output. Montgomery also ranked better in three key receiving metrics: yards per target, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade.
After Montgomery went down with the knee injury, Gibbs was top-three in actual and expected fantasy points. Multiple takeaways here, if you draft Gibbs at RB3 with an ADP of pick 8 you are buying him at his ceiling. Next, if you wait four rounds later, you can get the RB20 in David Montgomery. He has the potential to outproduce his fifth-round ADP making him a great value. Despite the injury, Montgomery finished as the PPR RB18, amassing 775 yards and 12 touchdowns in 14 games. Lastly, besides the potential regression, you have to consider the effect that Montgomery has or will have on Gibbs’ workload. Gibbs averaged a 48% snap rate with a healthy Montgomery and scored 38% of his rushing touchdowns after injury.
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