Week three of the NFL kicks off on Thursday night when the New England Patriots (2-0) host the Houston Texans (2-0), and there is serious concern surrounding the quarterback situation in New England heading into the game.
Just as Jimmy Garoppolo was gaining respect and winning over the hearts of Patriots fans, he sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder versus the Miami Dolphins. Amid conflicting reports of just how long Garoppolo will be sidelined, the only certainty seems to be that rookie Jacoby Brissett will get the start this Thursday.
#Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo (sprained AC joint) won’t start Thursday vs. #Texans. But there is hope he’s back by Week 4. Huge break for NE
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 19, 2016
The fact that New England hasn’t brought in another quarterback speaks to the speculation of Garoppolo being available as a backup option.
New England Patriots Week Three Keys to Victory
This week’s match up will pit New England’s high-powered offense against Houston’s dominant defense. If New England wants to maintain its perfect record, there are a few things they need to focus on in order to overcome J.J Watt and the rest of the Houston Texans.
Here are the New England Patriots week three keys to victory:
Running the Ball
The Patriots ground game has been a major key to their success so far this season. New England has ran the ball 69 times in 2016, tied for the most attempts in the NFL. They have also amassed 267 rushing yards, the seventh most in the NFL. Responsible for that success is Legarrette Blount, who hurdled Miami’s Byron Maxwell in Sunday’s 31-24 victory.
.@LG_Blount is hurdling humans AGAIN!
Just another day at the office. ? #MIAvsNE https://t.co/nf8wTEjhqL
— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2016
Blount has one touchdown and over 20 carries in each game this year. A similar workload against Houston will be vital to the Patriots success this week. If there is a weakness on Houston’s defense so far, it is definitely defending the run. Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels will need to take advantage of this and keep Houston’s blizters honest by running the ball out of many different offensive packages.
Protecting Jacoby Brissett
The Texans defense has racked up nine sacks through their first two contests, which is the most in the league. In order to beat the Texans, the Patriots will have to avoid sacks. The best ways to avoid a sack are hand-offs and quick throws, so expect another night of 20+ touches for Blount and plenty of receptions for Julian Edelman. New England’s offensive line held its own against the Arizona Cardinals defense, but didn’t face a lot of pressure. Against the Dolphins defensive front, however, was a different story.
According to a tweet from Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, the pass protection couldn’t handle Miami’s pressure on Sunday. It’s not going to be any easier on Thursday, given that the Texans have six players with at least one sack. New England may have to rely on their tight ends to help block, which reduces Brissett’s options downfield.
Winning the Battle on Third Down
This could very well end up being the game’s deciding factor.
New England enters the contest having converted 56.7% of their third down chances, which is best in the league. Meanwhile, Houston only allows teams to move the chains 25.9% of the time on third down (third lowest percentage in the NFL).
Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola have been big contributors on third down so far this season, but that was with Garoppolo throwing the ball. It will most likely be a different story with Jacoby Brissett, who was 2-4 in third down situations against the Dolphins and only registered one first down through the air.
Neutralizing Houston’s Aerial Threats
Although Houston’s 469 passing yards ranks 23rd in the NFL, they have had at least one receiver go over 100 receiving yards in each game so far. Both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller went over the 100-yard mark against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. To compliment the talents of DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans now have a viable threat in first-round pick Will Fuller. Fuller is currently tied for 4th in the league with 211 receiving yards and has great speed and acceleration.
The Patriots will have to shut down at least one of the two in order to win. If the secondary plays like it did in the second half against Miami, Brock Osweiler could get the better of New England for the second time in as many tries. Malcolm Butler and company also allowed Larry Fitzgerald to have a big game when the Patriots played the Cardinals.
Last Word
Playing on short rest will be tough for both teams. If last week’s Thursday night game was any indication of how teams play on short rest, expect a sloppy performance from both sides.
The winner of this game will simply make less mistakes than the loser. The Patriots need to limit the amount of penalties they commit and not turn the ball over. The Texans need to be more efficient on offense, as they only convert 45.7% of their third downs, have only 32 first downs overall, and have only scored three touchdowns on the season.
Houston may have a slight advantage this week only because the Patriots secondary has a lot of work to do to prepare for Hopkins and Fuller, but in order to win on the road in Gillette Stadium, they’ll have to put touchdowns on the board instead of field goals.
PREDICTION: New England 26 – Houston 23
