The Buffalo Bills (6-2) could have their fifth straight AFC East title wrapped up by Thanksgiving. The Miami Dolphins (2-5) would at least bring some intrigue back into the division race with a road upset at Highmark Stadium on Sunday.
It’s been a season of streaks for the Bills, who are currently riding their second three-game winning streak of the campaign. Those stretches off success are sandwiched around a two-game losing skid. The current run has vaulted quarterback Josh Allen to the forefront of the NFL MVP conversation.
Meanwhile, Dolphins signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa returned last week after missing the previous four games with a concussion suffered against the Bills in Week 2. His return sparked the dormant offense, but the ‘Phins still fell short against the Arizona Cardinals, 28-27.
Miami and Buffalo are scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on CBS.
Dolphins-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 9)
X-Factors
Dolphins: DE Calais Campbell
Miami’s pass rush has been a major problem all season. It’s tied for 30th in the NFL with just nine sacks, and only three players have taken down the opposing quarterback more than once: Campbell, Zach Sieler, and Emmanuel Ogbah. Both Sieler (eye) and Ogbah (bicep/illness) are dealing with injuries and could miss Sunday’s game.
In turn, Campbell will carry a heavy burden on his shoulders trying to contain Allen. The six-time Pro Bowler has recorded 107.5 career sacks, but the fact he’s the Dolphins’ most effective pass-rusher at the age of 38 speaks to the defense’s issues in that area.
When facing the Bills, however, keeping Allen in the pocket and then getting even a modest push up the middle is usually most effective. He’s most effective when he can escape and create in space. He doesn’t look as comfortable when constrained in a muddled pocket.
Campbell also has a potentially exploitable matchup against Buffalo left tackle Dion Dawkins. Although Dawkins has typically been one of the NFL’s most reliable blindside blockers, he hasn’t been as consistent this season, as showcased by his modest 67.1 overall grade from Pro Football Focus.
The Dolphins need far more pressure Sunday than they created in their first seven games to have a chance against the division leaders.
Bills: WR Khalil Shakir
Shakir, like the Bills as a whole, was enduring an up-and-down campaign at the outset. The trade for Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns brought a much-needed element to the offense, and it’s allowed the third-year wide receiver to take off.
Here are the 24-year-old Boise State product’s numbers since Cooper’s arrival:
- Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans: 7 catches for 65 yards
- Week 8 vs. Seattle Seahawks: 9 catches for 107 yards, 1 TD
Having a proven weapon like Cooper on the field rather than a replacement-level player like Mack Hollins has opened everything up in Buffalo’s passing game. Putting Cooper, Shakir, Keon Coleman, and tight end Dalton Kincaid on the field at the same time creates matchup nightmares for opponents.
Shakir is the most important player in that group because Allen trusts him in crucial situations, especially key third downs. He leads an upgraded version of the “everybody eats” philosophy the team was using early in the season.
This week, Cooper is dealing with a wrist injury, and Coleman figures to see a lot of Miami’s top cornerback, Jalen Ramsey. So, it could once again be a double-digit target game for Shakir, who still isn’t getting the type of attention he deserves around the league.
Key Matchup
Dolphins Running Backs vs. Bills’ Front Seven
Tagovailoa’s absence didn’t just crush the Dolphins’ passing game. The lack of a threat under center—whether it be Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, or Tim Boyle—allowed opponents to stack the box against Miami’s typically dangerous rushing attack.
So, it’s no surprise the ground game looked better against the Cardinals. De’Von Achane averaged nearly 10 yards per carry (97 yards on 10 attempts), and Raheem Mostert found the end zone twice despite tallying just 19 yards. Third-string back Jaylen Wright added 19 yards on only two carries.
It illustrates how much having Tua on the field changes everything. The mere threat of actually using the team’s big-play receivers causes defenses to back off. Miami’s rushers benefit greatly.
Now the group gets to face a Bills defense that’s tied for 25th in yards allowed per rush (4.8).
Injuries to the starting linebacker tandem of Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have forced the team to start Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector at times. That’s a massive downgrade. Milano has yet to play this season because of a bicep injury. Bernard has missed three games and parts of other with pectoral and ankle ailments.
Since the Bills don’t play a third linebacker—either slot corner Taron Johnson or safety Taylor Rapp becomes the extra member of the front seven depending on the alignment—the absences at the position create a worrisome weakness against power football.
That said, Buffalo did hold the Seahawks to 32 rushing yards on 17 carries (1.9 YPC) last week. It was a promising sign, though it’ll take more than one strong outing to declare their problems against the run fixed.
If the Dolphins can establish the run early, it’ll open up the play-action passing game, and the Bills defense may struggle to contain all of Miami’s offensive arsenal.
Final Score Prediction: 27-21 Dolphins
Miami is a desperate team. Its playoff hopes are already fading. A loss Sunday would essentially end its chances of coming back in the AFC East. So, expect head coach Mike McDaniel to use an aggressive game plan. It’s as close to a must-win game as it gets for early November.
The Dolphins’ offense looked capable of making some noise down the stretch with Tagovailoa back at the helm. Now the pressure is on defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver. His unit must rise to meet the challenge of slowing down an in-form Bills offense.
On the flip side, this is the start of another tough schedule stretch for the Bills. It includes a pair of games against last year’s Super Bowl combatants.
- Week 9: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 10: at Indianapolis Colts
- Week 11: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 14: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 15: at Detroit Lions
So, while Buffalo is in an enviable situation now, its work is far from finished. There are no gimme wins during that stretch. The Colts are more competitive with Joe Flacco under center, and the Rams’ star-studded offense is now healthy. It’s a really tough set of games.
Last year, the Bills trailed the Dolphins by three games with five weeks left. They came back to win the division crown. It makes both sides well aware this race isn’t over despite the current standings. Buffalo will want to put Miami out of reach as soon as possible.
Expected a spirited battle in Orchard Park, and don’t be shocked if the Dolphins pull off the upset.
Main Image: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports
