Speculating wins and losses for teams in the preseason is always one of the media’s favorite preseason exercises. From the moment the schedule drops in May, analysts can be found circling wins and losses. And that’s exactly what we will be doing here in a more summarized way, breaking up the season into three key stretches.
Perhaps the biggest thing folks in the industry get wrong during this exercise is assuming a team will be the same team at the end of the season as they were when they started. One such example for 2024 will be the Vikings, who are extremely likely to undergo a quarterback change midseason. For better or worse, the Sam Darnold-led Vikings will certainly be a different challenge than the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings. When looking at the Vikings schedule, there appears to be a clear date for when a transition could occur.
Preseason Look at Vikings Schedule Provides Answers to Speculation
The Brutal Five Weeks Before an Early Bye
Week 1: @ Giants, Week 2: 49ers, Week 3: Texans, Week 4: @ Packers, Week 5: Jets (London)
The Vikings schedule starts with arguably their roughest stretch of the season before the early Week 6 bye. While Minnesota’s coaches might not admit it, the early opponents could certainly factor into the quarterback transition strategy. All five teams figure to have above-average defenses this year, with even the Giants featuring an elite pass rush. In short, Sam Darnold will absolutely have his work cut out for him assuming he’s the Week 1 starter.
The only one of those games that the Vikings could be favored in is the opener in the Meadowlands. It also might be one of the few opponents in the league that Darnold might have a quarterback edge against. That makes it a must-win of the highest degree for both the team and Darnold. Even then, Darnold would likely need to play well and pull off a few big upsets against a quartet of projected elite teams to keep the job. That’s just hard to see happening.
The 49ers are going to be double-digit favorites and should be able to overpower the Vikings in Minnesota. The Texans are probably a little overhyped at this point, but the quarterback edge will make them road favorites. A trip to Lambeau and a neutral site game against former Packer legend Aaron Rodgers would also be considered major upset territory for the Vikings to win either of those games. The fact is that there is a very real chance the Vikings will be limping heavily into the bye. Sam Darnold will likely need to have the Vikings sitting at 3-2 at minimum to keep their confidence. Against such a brutal slate of opponents, that just doesn’t seem likely.
Projected Record End of Week 5: 1-4
The Vikings Schedule Becomes More Manageable Midseason
Week 7: Lions, Week 8: @ Rams (TNF), Week 9: Colts, Week 10: @ Jaguars, Week 11 @ Titans, Week 12 @ Bears, Week 13 Cardinals
After facing top-tier defenses their first five games, they don’t project to face another above-average defense the next several games coming out of the bye. Assuming Minnesota stumbles early as projected, that makes Week 7 an obvious target to transition McCarthy into the starting role. The unfortunate reality would also be that Head Coach Kevin O’Connell would suddenly be coaching for his job. He will have to show that he can develop McCarthy while also keeping Minnesota in the hunt during this stretch to get himself off the hot seat.
The biggest trick will be beating the Lions at home or the Rams on the road in primetime. Both were playoff teams a year ago, but both have defenses that can be scored on. If the Vikings can get some offensive momentum and win some shootouts, they could still salvage something of their season. Consecutive games facing the weak AFC South against the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans all should be very winnable. Even the Bears in Chicago, who look like a much tougher test on paper, have yet to prove anything. Wrapping up this stretch with another winnable game at home against the Cardinals could provide the juice the Vikings need to stay competitive down the stretch.
The realistically optimistic projection here is that they do indeed somewhat recover and reel off a 4-3 stretch. With a new quarterback at the helm that would provide room for plenty of optimism going into the home stretch. On the downside, anything worse than that and the remainder of the season would prove a slog.
Projected Record End of Week 13: 5-7
The Home Stretch Filled with Familiar Faces
Week 14: Falcons, Week 15: Bears (MNF), Week 16: @ Seahawks, Week 17: Packers, Week 18: @ Lions
If the Vikings do manage to stay within the “In the Hunt” graphic, this final stretch of games will at least be intriguing. That stretch includes the big Kirk Cousins reunion game against Atlanta and three NFC North contests. Any potential path to the playoffs definitely feels like an uphill climb with the opponents they have left. The home games against Atlanta and Chicago both should be tough but winnable. Anything less than a sweep there to get them back to .500 would likely end their postseason hopes.
Even then, a final stretch against three projected playoff contenders hardly figures to make the Vikings a wild-card team. The best the Vikings can reasonably hope for is that they play well enough to keep O’Connell employed. That along with evidence that J.J. McCarthy looks like the future would be more important than limping into the playoffs in any case.
Looking at the Vikings schedule holistically, it’s a good example of how important the first few games are. If Minnesota had an easier start, you could easily see an offensively gifted roster building momentum around a young quarterback. That’s just not the case this year though. Unless the Vikings greatly outperform expectations before the bye, they are likely in for a very long season.
Projected Record End of Season: 6-11
Main Photo: [Jeffery Becker] – USA Today Sports
