Nailing the number one fantasy football pick in drafts is crucial as that spot doesn’t come up again to draft until either picks 20 or 24 (10 or 12 team drafts). This season, the two options for 1.01 are running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Most drafters only look at these two players when determining who to draft. This article gives an overview of each player and then looks at some potential players to draft in the next rounds based on who gets drafted number one overall.
Who to Take #1 Overall in Fantasy Drafts: Christian McCaffrey or CeeDee Lamb
Christian McCaffrey Overview
McCaffrey scored 391.3 PPR fantasy points last season which was over 100 points higher than the next highest player (Breece Hall) giving him a massive positional advantage. Only Josh Allen and Lamb scored more fantasy points than McCaffrey. He had one of the most dominant seasons for a fantasy running back in recent history on his way to winning offensive player of the year in his first full season with the San Francisco 49ers. He was then rewarded with a two-year, $38 million contract extension.
The 49ers are one of the best offenses in the NFL as head coach Kyle Shanahan finds ways to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, especially McCaffrey. McCaffrey is a PPR and touchdown machine. However, he just recently injured his calf and is out for the remainder of the preseason. It doesn’t sound like it is a long injury, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Assuming full health, McCaffrey is well deserved as the number one fantasy football pick.
CeeDee Lamb Overview
Lamb led all players across all positions in PPR points last season with 403.2 points which was 27 points better than Tyreek Hill who finished 2nd. He led all wide receivers with 135 receptions. Through his first 4 seasons in the NFL, Lamb has never missed a game due to injury. The wide receiver depth behind the Dallas Cowboys is not strong in Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert. Lamb is the true alpha WR1 in the Cowboys offense with little competition for targets.
The only concern around Lamb is that he is currently holding out in preseason as he is looking for a new contract. Lamb and the Cowboys should be able to work something out before the season starts as Jerry Jones wants to go “All In” on the season. However, as the start of the season gets closer, and if there is not a contract, then it might be time to start worrying about Lamb. For now, there is no problem with taking him as the number one fantasy football pick.
Double coverage? Triple coverage? CeeDee is still going to EAT 🍽️ pic.twitter.com/VZIUtC8AkG
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) August 3, 2024
Mock Draft/Potential Team Builds
An underrated but important factor in deciding who to take with the first overall pick is the potential players available in the next two rounds at the turn. One key to drafting well is to draft strong wide receivers early as there will be more running backs available on waiver wires throughout the year as there are more injuries to running backs. However, it is also important to have a balance of positions to start. For example, drafting three wide receivers or three running backs within the first three picks is probably a bad idea as too many positions are being sacrificed. Therefore, within the first three picks, a good goal is to have at least one WR and one RB.
Taking Christian McCaffrey at the 1.01
Based on ADPs and Sleeper Mock Drafts, the top wide receivers most commonly available at picks 20-21 in a 10-team mock draft are Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, and Mike Evans. These guys are in the WR12-14 range making them strong WR2s. In 12-team drafts, players like Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs could be the best WR options. This means that if McCaffrey is taken number one overall, the best wide receiver on the team is a solid WR2. There are a lot more wide receivers being drafted in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts meaning it is hard to get an elite one if passing on a WR at 1.01.
Taking CeeDee Lamb at the 1.01
On the other hand, the running backs available at picks 20-21 and 24-25 are Travis Etienne, Devon Achane, and Derrick Henry. These guys are in the RB7-9 range putting them as RB1s. If Lamb goes number one overall, he can be paired with an RB1 with one of those three guys. With all the wide receivers going early in fantasy drafts, there are much better running back options compared to wide receiver options in rounds 2-3. There are elite running backs available at the end of the 2nd round.
To summarize, taking Lamb first pairs him with an RB1, but taking McCaffrey first pairs him with a WR2.
Some other positions available here are quarterback Josh Allen and tight end Sam LaPorta. This could set up a build of Lamb-Allen-LaPorta by going the no-RB strategy while having the best WR, best QB, and best TE in fantasy. This is harder in 12-team leagues for both Allen and LaPorta to make it to pick 24. If going McCaffrey number one, it is probably safe to draft two wide receivers to build a strong WR-core making it risky to take either a QB or TE because the WR position will be weak as the draft goes on.
Recap
To recap, some of the potential first three-round builds drafting at the number one overall spot are:
Lamb-Etienne-Olave or Lamb-Etienne-Aiyuk
McCaffrey-Olave-Aiyuk or McCaffrey-Olave-Evans
Lamb-Allen-LaPorta
Whichever of these builds is the strongest should be factored into who goes number one overall.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there seem to be more options with taking Lamb first overall even though McCaffrey is the better player. It is up to each individual drafter to make their decision, but factoring in the next couple of rounds is a key variable in determining who to take with the number one fantasy football pick.
Main Image: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
