It’s the most important position in football. But for fantasy football, quarterback and metrics used to help us find which ones are going to help us find the most value is a skill that isn’t learned overnight.
As the game has become more sophisticated, websites like PFF and PlayerProfiler allow to dive beyond box scores and make more well-informed decisions on where to draft players. For advanced players, diving into stable metrics to find over or underachieving is where championships are usually won or lost.
Stable metrics are exactly what they sound like, statistics that are more predictable for determining success on an annual basis. The goal is to give you a better idea of how they work and players that should be more highly valued using these stats.
Today, we’ll dive into quarterbacks where we’ll look at PFF’s Passing Grade, Air Yards per Attempt, and Adjusted Completion Percentage. The goal is to identify three quarterbacks who performed well in those areas in 2023.
Understanding Analytics: QB Metrics in Fantasy Football
Metric One: PFF Passing Grade
What is it?
PFF grades every play by every player in a season. A “zero” grade is earned when a player meets expectations on a given play and the play is scored up or down in half-point increments up to plus-two or minus-two. At the end of the season, the higher a player grades out the more consistently they played at a high level throughout the year. The higher the number, the better they were at playing well.
Player to Target: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Points Per Game, 2023: 15.2 (QB23)
PFF Passing Grade: 80.2 (13th)
According to FantasyData.com, a top-12 quarterback scored 18 fantasy points per game in 2023. For Smith, 2.8 fantasy points per game is a fairly large gap to cover. However, the gap to 17 points per game is much smaller. Seventeen fantasy points per game would put him on equal footing with Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who is currently being drafted as QB14 according to FantasyPros.
Smith’s regression wasn’t a matter of poor play, but rather more drops. His average depth of target (ADoT) held steady. With Seattle making the move to new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb this offseason, Smith’s opportunity to play in a more pass-happy system makes it entirely possible that he leaps his 2023 numbers. He only threw 20 touchdown passes last season. But if Grubb makes good on improving Seattle’s passing attack, there is a chance that Smith skews closer to the 30 touchdown passes that made him a strong fantasy quarterback in 2022.
Metric Two: Air Yards per Attempt
What is it?
Air yards per Attempt is the average number of yards a pass travels in the air before before caught. This number provides stability as it gives us an understanding of which quarterbacks are attacking downfield. In general, higher air yard numbers lead to higher passing yardage which leads to more fantasy points.
Player to Target: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Points Per Game, 2023: 11.3 (QB36)
Air Yards per Attempt: 4.8 (4th among QBs with at least eight games played)
Levis was hit-or-miss in scoring fantasy points but ranked behind Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and C.J. Stroud in Air Yards per Attempt according to FantasyData. With new head coach Brian Callahan bringing over the Cincinnati system to Tennessee, Levis’s tendency to push the ball up the field and an uptick in passing attempts make him an interesting option to outperform his current ADP of QB24 at FantasyPros.
Metric Three: Adjusted Completion Percentage
What is it?
Adjusted completion percentage takes attempts that were either dropped, thrown away, batted down, spiked, or attempts where a QB was hit as they were throwing. It subtracts those plays that were out of the quarterback’s control and omits them from the completion percentage. As a result, it gives us a more accurate picture of the player’s ability to make on-target throws.
Player to Target: Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Points Per Game, 2023: 17.1 (QB15)
Adjusted Completion Percentage: 78.8 (3rd among QBs with at least eight games played)
Wilson had 65 of his 447 pass attempts (14.5%) affected by things out of his control in 2023. With more positive plays and his solid rushing floor (7th in QB rushing last season), Wilson is almost certain to finish well above his QB28 ADP at FantasyPros.
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Main Photo: Denny Simmons / The Tennessean-USA TODAY NETWORK
