It’s a point of pride for any fantasy football player to draft the top player at a position. Oftentimes, they’re drafted early on. Finding the Christian McCaffrey’s and CeeDee Lamb’s of the world, that’s expected. But most times, fantasy gamers are usually looking for the next one up at a position. Fantasy football’s tight end landscape has been top-heavy for years, but Buffalo Bills Tight End Dalton Kincaid is in a position to change that in 2024.
Kincaid has a season of rapport under his belt with quarterback Josh Allen and will benefit from a significant amount of targets vacated within the Buffalo offense. Those factors will lead to increased opportunity and, fantasy managers hope, the type of league-winning upside they crave.
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football Outlook: The Top Tight End?
Rapport with Allen
Kincaid entered his rookie season with lots of hype and at times he delivered on it to the tune of 73 receptions, 673 yards, and two touchdowns. However, he was a distant second in targets behind the since-departed Stefon Diggs and his 160 targets. Diggs’s and Gabe Davis’s departure allowed Buffalo to rebuild its wide receiver room through the draft and free agency. Their most notable addition was rookie Keon Coleman taken in the second round of the NFL Draft.
The Bills also added receivers Curtis Samuel and Marques Valdez-Scantling in free agency. They’ll play alongside offensive returnees Khalil Shakir, James Cook, and Dalton Knox. Buffalo’s goal was to fill roles more than add impact players. Coleman and Valdez-Scantling profile as deep threats while Samuel will use his quickness on quick screens and gadget plays.
It leaves Kincaid, Buffalo’s top returning target earner, with an immense opportunity to build on his rookie year playing with Allen to occupy the middle of the field and become the Bills’ very own version of Travis Kelce.
Buffalo’s Vacated Targets
Kincaid’s opportunity comes in the form of vacated targets. According to The Fantasy Footballers, Buffalo’s offense lost 317 of its 2023 targets. Over half of those came from Diggs. But, that number equates to 58.1 percent of their passing offense in 2023. If we fill in the blanks they give us a path towards Kincaid outperforming his current ADP and becoming the type of player that can win leagues.
The majority of the leftover targets were from Diggs and Davis, who combined for 241 of the 317 that were lost from 2023. Where Buffalo stayed stable was at tight end, where only three targets were lost from last season. That large majority abandoned by last season’s receivers will be distributed across the offense with Kincaid set to be the main benefactor as the Bills’ top returning pass catcher.
Kincaid’s Opportunity
It goes beyond raw numbers. Buffalo pursued players for roles. Coleman has upside. But he’d have to have a special rookie year to diminish Kincaid’s upside this season.
Four wide receivers saw 100 or more targets last season. Each of them returned a top-30 value in PPR formats. The biggest outlier, Nacua, earned 160 targets and finished as WR4. But three others cleared the 100-target threshold — Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers, Minnesota Vikings receiver Jordan Addison, and Kansas City receiver Rashee Rice. However, none of them finished within the top 20 of scoring among receivers when the smoke cleared.
Rather than an outlier, we’ll focus on Kincaid, who figures to inherit a large increase in targets and therefore improve his output. A modest 25 percent increase in his targets would put him at 115 targets in 2024, good for sixth at his position. But, if that target increase is more along the lines of 40 percent, he’d be in line for 127 targets. That would be good enough to be second among tight ends in 2023.
Kincaid caught 80 percent of his targets last season. A step back towards a more modest 70 percent catch rate can be expected. With either target goal at a 70 percent catch rate, he’s in line for an 80-reception season. It’s also a safe assumption that he’s a candidate for increased touchdown output after scoring only two last season.
That’s the risk at tight end. It’s largely a touchdown-dependent position for fantasy purposes. But, with the increased usage and the strong possibilities that he can be used both in the slot and in the red zone, Kincaid is as good a bet as any to finish at the top of his position in 2024.
Main Photo Credit: Syndication: Democrat and Chronicle
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