The NFL media has been buzzing about the Vikings plan to potentially trade up for a quarterback after acquiring a second first-round pick from the Texans. It was slightly puzzling at first because it appeared like New England and Washington would not be open for business. That meant that Minnesota’s only feasible target in a trade up would be the fourth quarterback off the board. However, after some leaked quotes from the teams at the top of the draft, it seems to be more of a question of how high the Vikings trade up rather than a question of if.
Both the Commanders and Patriots put it out there that they would entertain trading the second or third overall picks. It almost came off as a challenge for the Vikings to come up with an offer they can’t refuse. That’s where things get dangerous for a quarterback needy franchise with an otherwise great roster like the Vikings. With an above average quarterback crop at the top of the draft, the top-three picks will come at a premium. Washington and New England will both be asking for well above normal pick value involving any potential trade down.
The Vikings essentially have three options at this point. They could come up with a package that meets whatever premium those teams are charging, they could settle for J.J. McCarthy in the pick 4-6 range, or they could simply stay put at 11. For discussions sake, let’s assume the Vikings do make the trade and then let’s attempt to draw a line for how much the Vikings should be willing to surrender in a potential deal.
Watch – J.J. McCarthy Film Study
The Price for Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye Could be Record Breaking
Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye are widely viewed as the best quarterbacks in the draft behind presumed top overall pick Caleb Williams. Both profile as potential franchise quarterbacks with slightly different floors and ceilings. Jayden Daniels is the more accurate and polished player with the speed to change games from day one. However, his arm strength is more just okay and that may put his ceiling closer to top-10 quarterback than top-5. While not as polished as Daniels, Maye’s ceiling is tantalizingly high. Maye’s arm and deep accuracy could make him a top tier downfield passer right away. He also incorporates a running style that is somewhat reminiscent to Josh Allen. There is a lot more risk with Maye, but the Vikings with their weapons and head coach could be the ideal fit.
Regardless of which quarterback the Vikings ultimately prefer, they’re both top tier prospects that would be worth a big swing. Now, how much would be too much for to give up in a Vikings trade up? The price for one of those guys will at least begin with both first-round picks this year and an additional first rounder. Given the number of quarterback needy teams picking behind them, Washington and New England will almost certainly ask for more. So, how much more should the Vikings be willing to give up?
The Vikings are likely too talented to have a Carolina surrendering the top pick to Chicago scenario play out. With that assumption, surrendering next year’s first pick doesn’t carry quite as much risk. However, the outlook could be much bleaker in a few seasons if they were to whiff on this pick. That makes giving up a fourth first-round pick seem like the line in the sand for the team. If they love either Maye or Daniels then maybe the answer should be yes, but that has to be the absolute limit. Giving up any more than that would cross the line into desperation and could set the team back severely. For a franchise that already gave the world the Herschel Walker trade, the Vikings have to be careful not to repeat that mistake.
A Vikings Trade Up for J.J. McCarthy Needs to be Heavily Discounted
While J.J. McCarthy is talented, the drop-off from Daniels and Maye to McCarthy appears precipitous. Therefore, the corresponding value of the fourth overall pick will also plummet from the third overall. Now the difficult part of the equation is getting Arizona, who owns the fourth pick, to agree with that assessment. Even for McCarthy a Vikings trade up would again cost both 2024 first-round picks and change. For the trade to make sense for Minnesota, it will have to depend on how much more capital Arizona wants.
McCarthy has a lot of question marks about his college production with Michigan relying heavily on the running game. McCarthy has solid measurables and feels like a strong locker room presence that blew away combine interviews. However, pointing to combine performance and simply having to call a guy a winner are normally red flags. That usually means scouts can’t find enough good things to say about the actual game tape. McCarthy could develop in the pros but just doesn’t have enough experience carrying an offense in college to warrant a ton of draft capital to move up to get.
With that in mind, the Vikings will absolutely have to say no if Arizona wants next year’s first-round pick. If they land McCarthy or another second-tier quarterback prospect the Vikings could again be in the quarterback market. They already don’t have a second-round pick in 2025 so maintaining future flexibility is a must in this scenario. The ceiling on a Vikings trade up to fourth overall should be both 2024 first rounders and a future third. Anything more than that could lead to this being the last first-round pick this front office ever gets to make.
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