This game should be easy to call and pick DraftKings DFS bargains in, but this is the playoffs. The Bills won 11 games and beat the Dolphins to claim the AFC East title. The Steelers have only finished 3rd in their division, they did win 10 games though. And they have the hottest quarterback in the league. Mason Rudolph has retired from the helmet-swinging tour and started 3 games of football in 2023. He won all of them, he only threw 3 touchdowns in those games, but he didn’t throw any interceptions (and one of those games was against a Ravens defense).
The weather promises to play a significant part in this game too. The Bills played in relatively benign conditions in Miami last week whereas the Steelers played in weather so bad they fumbled the ball 6 times! This week it looks more like 6 fumble weather than Miami weather. Although it shouldn’t be as wet as Baltimore last week it will be below freezing with strong gusts of wind.
Super Wildcard Weekend DraftKings DFS Bargains For Steelers At Bills
The Surprisingly Young Veteran Pick – Leonard Fournette
They call him “playoff Lenny” for a reason. And he’s only played two games this season, so the 28-year-old (29 on January 18th) is fresh. In fact, he’s only carried the ball 12 times since the Bills promoted him from the practice squad. And they haven’t thrown him a pass yet.
But Fournette is a different beast in the postseason. Throughout his career, he averages a touchdown roughly every 2 games and 55 rushing yards per game. In the playoffs, however, he averages more than 1 touchdown per game and 67.1 rushing yards per game.
Fournette isn’t about to jump ahead of James Cook in the depth chart, but he should take some of the ball-carrying burden away from Josh Allen if the Bills want to go deep into the playoffs. And he’s only $2.400 on this week’s DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate.
The Not Technically A Bargain DraftKings DFS Pick – Khalil Shakir
He’s catching 86.7% of the passes thrown his way. And if that’s not a good enough reason to put in your lineup he’s averaging 15.5 yards per touch! Only 5 teams have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers this season too.
The Steelers have defended the pass well this season. But Shakir will either be lined up against Chandon Sullivan or a linebacker. Sullivan is only allowing 61.5% of passes to be completed, but he has conceded 111 air yards this season. Shakir will be looking forward to beating him downfield. He’s an expensive bargain at $5,600 on DraftKings this week, but if Gabe Davis hasn’t fully recovered from his knee injury Shakir could see 6 targets like he did last week.
The Veteran Tight End DraftKings DFS Pick – Dawson Knox
The Steelers defense hasn’t been as comfortable defending tight ends as it is defending receivers though. They have allowed 12.6 DraftKings DFS points per game to the position. And the 7 touchdowns they have conceded to tight ends is the third most in the league. They allow 10 yards per reception when tight ends catch passes. Knox costs just $1,800 on this week’s DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate. That’s a bargain considering he caught a touchdown pass last week.
Knox battled a wrist injury in 2023, after seeing 28 targets in the first 7 games of the season he missed 5 games. Since he returned, he has only seen 8 targets in 5 games. But like Fournette, Knox is better in the playoffs. During the regular season, he catches 64.3% of his targets, in the postseason it’s 72.2%! He averages 1 touchdown every 3 and a bit games during the regular season, in the playoffs he has scored 5 in 8 games. In a game where deep passes might be tricky, short passes to tight ends and running backs should be vital for extending drives.
The Versatile Tight End DraftKings DFS Pick – Connor Heyward
On that theme Steelers’ tight end Connor Heyward is tough as they come. And he’ll love playing in a game where every inch is hard-fought. He’s averaging 7 yards per touch this season. He’s caught 23 passes and carried the ball once. He can lineup as a fullback if the weather isn’t very conducive to throwing a lot of passes (and Rudolph is only averaging 19 passes per game anyway).
He will cost $600 on DraftKings this week and the Bills are allowing 9.1 yards per reception when tight ends catch the ball.
The Rookie Freak Tight End Pick – Darnell Washington
Continuing that idea, rookie tight end Washington is predominantly used as an auxiliary lineman by the Steelers, but he has real pass-catching ability. In college at Georgia, he caught 45 passes and averaged 17.2 yards per catch! He’s only caught passes as a Steeler, but he’s only been targeted 10 times! He averages 8.7 yards per catch. But every time he’s caught a pass, he looks like he’s just waiting to go off! And at 6 feet 7 inches tall he’s not only hard to defend he takes a lot of stopping.
Better than all of that he only costs $200 this week and if the Steelers want to negate the Bils defensive front, they will have to throw it quickly and often.
Main Photo: [Kareem Elgazzer] – USA Today Sports
