Two offensively minded head coaches meet in what can only be described as “arctic”, it’s going to be 8° F in Kansas City on Saturday! Snow is forecast to fall on Friday but not on Saturday. Although playing on a frozen field isn’t going to help the offenses. The Chiefs’ defense was ranked second in the regular season after only allowing 17.2 points per game, but the Dolphins were ranked 22nd having allowed 23 per game. That should affect the result and the DraftKings DFS bargains.
Super Wildcard Weekend DraftKings DFS Bargains For Dolphins At Chiefs
The Obvious (Not Technically A Bargain) Pick – Harrison Butker
First things first, Butker costs $5,400 on this DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate so he’s not an official bargain. But he averages 9.1 DraftKings points per game this season. That’s more than Durham Smythe who caught 81.4% of his targets in 2023 and is averaging 10.5 yards per touch this season.
If the weather is as miserable as the forecast suggests this is going to be a low-scoring game so the kickers will be important. And Butker has only missed two kicks all season, he’s currently 71 of 73!
The Versatile Option DraftKings DFS Pick – Noah Gray
He’s the guy who isn’t Travis Kelce but sometimes gets to do the QB sneak thing that Kelce has done in the past. Gray had a spell as a quarterback when he was in high school, but this doesn’t look like the weather to be trying out some trick plays.
His 306 yards from scrimmage is the most of his young career so far. And he’s averaging 10.6 yards per touch this season. Gray is averaging 10.9 yards per catch and the Dolphins defense is ranked seventh against the tight end position. They allow 9.9 yards per catch to tight ends, so Gray and Kelce should be able to find space in their defense. Miami has also conceded seven touchdowns to tight ends this season. That’s the third-highest number in the league. At $1,800 on this DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown slate Gray is a true bargain.
The Returning Hero DraftKings DFS Pick – Mecole Hardman
Hardman has quite a season. He signed with the Jets as a free agent back in March. But he was traded back to the Chiefs in October for a sixth-round draft pick in 2025. Since he returned to KC, he’s been on IR for four weeks and appeared on the injury report in Weeks 16 and 17 too. But he played last week. And boy did he play, with Blain Gabbert in for Patrick Mahomes Hardman saw 11 targets as the Chiefs’ backups dispatched the Chargers.
Hardman saw seven more targets than any other Kansas City receiver in LA in his first game after six weeks without a catch. And he averaged 12.8 yards per touch! Most importantly he played 58 snaps, his highest number of the season, and 53 more than he managed in Week 17!
Saying the Dolphins are dealing with a lot of injuries is a huge understatement, they had 14 players on their roster dealing with injuries last week. And a further 13 were listed as “full practice” on their injury report. But the likes of Jalen Ramsey and De’Von Achane didn’t look up to speed on Sunday Night. The Dolphins’ defense is ranked 10th against receivers in DraftKings this season too, they have allowed them to score 37 points per game. In theory, Hardman should line up opposite Kader Kohou (but it’ll be whoever is healthy). Kohou allows 82.7% of passes to be completed and eight receivers have scored touchdowns when he’s been in coverage. That seems like something that would interest Mahomes.
The Big Play Waiting To Happen DraftKings DFS Pick – Justin Watson
The Chiefs have their own injury problems with 18 dealing with injuries last week. And four others featured on the injury report. Three wide receivers were dealing with injuries in the final week of the regular season. As a result, Watson was elevated to the top of the depth chart.
Watson is the Chiefs’ biggest deep threat this season, he’s averaging 17 yards per touch! It might not be the best weather for deep passes, but if Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney are still battling injuries Watson should see more looks from Mahomes. Watson could line up opposite Eli Apple this week too.
Apple allowed 63.2% of passes to be completed. But last week against the Bills seven of the nine passes thrown his way were completed. And he gave up a touchdown. Watson will cost $4,400 on this DraftKings DFS slate, but he seems destined to have a big game.
The Other Blindingly Obvious Pick – Chiefs D/ST
Like Butker the weather seems to dictate the Chiefs’ defense will have a big role to play in this one. And they’re ranked second in the league remember? As the season has progressed their “timing routes” that were successful at the start of the season have become more difficult. They’ve completely lost their rhythm. That suggests they’ll have to rely on their run game. And with De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert battling injuries that seems like a tough ask.
The Dolphins have averaged just 18 points per game in their last 3 games. This looks like good Chris Jones weather and the bug guy seems to come alive in the playoffs. So, $4,200 seems like a bargain considering the Dolphins only scored 14 points when these teams met in Week 9.
The Dolphins Best Option DraftKings DFS Pick – Jeff Wilson Jr.
If the Dolphins do have to rely on the run and Achane and Mostert are inactive Wilson Jr. Will be the man. Even if they are healthy he should get some chances. He averaged 5 yards per touch last week against a good Bills defense. And his one-cut, downhill running style between tackles will be crucial if the field is frozen.
He’s just $2,800 in this week’s DraftKings DFS Captains Showdown game too.
Main Image: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
