As the clock winds down on the 2023 season, the New England Patriots have a pivotal Week 18 matchup with the New York Jets. A victory isn’t a given, but it’s certainly within reach if they can play their cards right. Despite some better play by the offense, nagging inconsistencies have continued to be an issue, often culminating in turnovers. Let’s break down the three keys to a Patriots win, ensuring they finish the season strong against the Jets, while still trying to hold onto a top-five draft pick.
Three Things the Patriots Must Do to Finish the Season With a Win
Protect the Football
This almost goes without saying, but turning the ball over four times in the first 18 minutes of a football game makes it extremely hard to win. The fact that the Patriots had any chance to win against the Buffalo Bills in Week 17 after doing just that, is a huge testament to the defense.
The truth is, Bailey Zappe has struggled to put together four consecutive good quarters. The flashes of talent are undeniable, and the offense is certainly more explosive with Zappe willing to take chances down the field. However, the mistakes he continues to make are putting a very good defense in very bad spots.
Zappe's film is a roller coaster every week. First two INTs were on him. Third one was mostly on Reagor, but the pass wasn't great either.
Plus plays on Parker cross (+15), Gesicki third down improv (+14), and scramble TD. This offense is so boom or total disaster. #Patriots pic.twitter.com/RLfNK1o2cH
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) January 1, 2024
Against the talented defense, New York will be bringing to Foxbourogh – the Jets are the fifth-best defense in opponent passer rating allowed – Zappe’s risks are going to have to be calculated to keep the turnovers down. He’s going to see a lot of “cover four” coverage which the Jets like to run and lean on the strength of their secondary, but Zappe has had success against similar coverages so far. According to Next Gen Stats coverage data, Zappe has a 70.6% completion rate and an average of 7.88 yards per attempt when facing cover four.
Disrupt the Quarterback
This season the Patriots defense has been one of the best units in the league, with the run defense on a historical pace. As a whole, that side of the ball has been (sometimes single-handedly) keeping the Patriots close in many of the games this year. However, the one Achilles heel for the Patriots, defensively, would be the inability to affect the quarterback.
The New England pass rush is 28th in sacks this year, and it’s not as though they’re getting home and just not getting the quarterback to the ground. The team is also ranked 30th in quarterback hits. The best defensive backs can only stay with a receiver for so long. With enough time, even the likes of Trevor Siemian will be able to move the ball.
On the flip side, the Jets offensive line has allowed the third-highest sack percentage in the NFL at 9.8%. It’s been a clear weak spot for New York the entire season, going back to the fourth play of the season where they lost their four-time MVP quarterback to an injury on a sack. If the Patriots pass rushers can put up a performance similar to the one this past weekend against the Bills – where four players recorded a hit on the quarterback – the Jets will have a hard time scoring.
Keion White's been playing at a different level the past few weeks. Consistently making impact plays. https://t.co/sgaVvlQq4T
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) December 31, 2023
Stay Engaged
This may sound so simple, but the truth of the matter is: there isn’t much to play for, sitting at 4-12. The team has no hope for a playoff spot, the fanbase would likely be happier with a loss, and no NFL player is 100% healthy this late in the season. There are plenty of reasons to throw in the towel, the hard part is finding the reasons to keep fighting.
Those reasons to fight are there if the players are willing to find them. One player who, it seems, didn’t want to find a reason is offensive tackle Trent Brown. Brown was made inactive for the matchup against the Bills after being removed from the injury report the Friday prior to the game. When asked about the decision to make the lineman a healthy scratch, Bill Belichick said, “We activated the players who wanted to play.” With comments like that, it appears that Brown’s time in New England is coming to a close.
Even though the Patriots-Jets rivalry has been a bit lopsided (37-10 since 2000) it’s still a division rival and should provide a good jolt of energy for both sides. For the Patriots, the noise around their head coach is getting louder and louder as the end of the season inches closer. One thing these 2023 Patriots have shown us is they will play hard for their coach. With all the reasons to give up, this team still worked extremely hard to win every game this year. Even if it wasn’t enough.
Setting Up for a Better 2024
Wrapping up this rollercoaster of a season, the Patriots face-off with the Jets is about more than just winning the game—it’s a testament to their resilience and a step in the right direction for 2024. By honing in on protecting the ball and getting to the quarterback, the team has a real chance to win this game. But without all of them having that burning desire to win, it won’t do them any good. This Sunday, it’s time for the Patriots to dig deep, channel that hunger, and end the season with the kind of win that resonates well into the off-season.
Main Photo: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
