Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football. At his best, the former second-round pick is one of the most efficient and dangerous players in the league on a per-touch basis. However, a long list of injuries and inconsistent performances give him one of the lowest floors in the NFL. So, based on his current average draft position, is Dobbins worth the risk?
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2023 Fantasy Football Profile: J.K. Dobbins
2022 Recap
2022 was something of a mixed bag for Dobbins. After missing the entire 2021 campaign due to a knee injury, J.K. Dobbins returned to the field and put up some good numbers for fantasy football. Unfortunately, he couldn’t remain on the field, playing in only eight games while recording 520 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 92 carries.
The good news is that he did make the most of his limited touches. The running back averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and while that number can be deceiving, a deeper dive shows that Dobbins was one of the most efficient runners in the game. According to PlayerProfiler, Dobbins finished the season ranked fourth in true yards per carry, second in juke rate, and third in breakaway run rate. While his yards created per touch wasn’t quite as impressive (2.75, 29th), he still proved that he deserves to be a starting running back in the NFL.
The Ravens didn’t add anybody of note to their backfield over the past few months, and all signs point towards Dobbins being Baltimore’s fantasy football RB1 in 2023. However, will he be able to earn a full three-down workload?
2023 Projection
The short answer is probably not. Football is an inherently violent sport, and one or two bad injuries don’t necessarily mean that a player cannot handle a full workload. However, when it happens over and over again, a team will eventually decide to limit a player’s touches, especially when there are reliable backups on the roster.
Gus Edwards has similar injury concerns, but the former undrafted free agent is a remarkably steady backup when on the field. He can easily handle a couple of carries a game to ease Dobbins’ burden, and that’s not a good thing for fantasy football. Additionally, undrafted free agent Keaton Mitchell has performed well and could earn some carries if he makes the 53-man roster.
Ravens RBs on September 10
1. JK Dobbins
2. Gus Edwards
3. Keaton Mitchell pic.twitter.com/4EwC5L0uSf— Kyle (@ImKyleMangum) August 22, 2023
The best running backs in fantasy football earn three-down workloads, but role players can still be valuable in the right situation. Not all touches are created equal, and anyone who knows fantasy football knows that touchdowns and receptions are far more valuable than carries. Unfortunately, Dobbins doesn’t have too clear of a path to either role. While he will definitely get some touchdowns, Lamar Jackson will leach a few goal-line scores every year, while Edwards will also get his fair share.
Dobbins’ receiving projections aren’t any better, as he has yet to record more than 18 receptions in a single season. While injuries have played a role here, it’s hard to imagine a world where he records more than 30 receptions.
J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Football ADP
So, J.K. Dobbins is going to be an efficient early-down back who probably won’t get as many snaps, touchdowns, or receptions as fantasy football owners would like. There is a role for players like that, but it’s hard to justify a selection at his current ADP.
As of this posting, FantasyPros has Dobbins going off the board with the 60th overall pick, right in the same neighborhood as guys like Kyle Pitts, Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and Dallas Goedert. Dobbins has a higher ceiling than just about any of those aforementioned names, so you could justify a selection here if you’re in a large tournament. However, assuming you’re just playing in a typical 12-team league, you’re probably better off looking somewhere else.
