New York Jets rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson has set the fantasy football world on fire through the first two weeks of the season. Entering Week 3, the Ohio State product has recorded 12 receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns, making him the WR12 in PPR formats. Every year there is a rookie that outplays expectations, will Wilson be that guy in 2022, or is this just a random spike in production?
READ MORE: Week 3 Stream Team
Fantasy Football: Is Garrett Wilson The Real Deal?
Garrett Wilson Himself
Garrett Wilson has been a godsend for fantasy owners that took a late flier on him thus far, but it’s important to point out that it’s only been two weeks. Weird things happen in small samples, and we need to be sure that the underlying metrics support the current hype. After all, last year at this point, Sterling Shepard was the WR9 in PPR leagues.
The good news is that all of Wilson’s metrics imply that this production isn’t a fluke. In Week 2, his route participation jumped from 56% to 76%, and that number will likely continue to rise as he acclimates to the NFL. He’s already commanding a 22% target share and a 32.7% air yard share, which is absolutely fantastic for a player two games into his professional career. It’s even more fantastic when you realize the Jets have a strong receiving core. Elijah Moore and Corey Davis are both good NFL players, yet Wilson is still earning targets over those two.
Seeing the field and earning targets are obviously two huge parts of fantasy success, but it’s also important for Wilson to make the most of his oportunities. Fortunately, Wilson is also succeeding in that aspect of the game. His 2.23 yards per route run is the 36th-best mark in the league, and his 77.8 PFF grade ranks 13th among eligible wide receivers.
Nobody can be sure of anything with 100% confidence after just two games, but all signs indicate that Garrett Wilson is the real deal. He’s seeing tons of opportunity, and he’s being efficient when on the field. This alone implies fantasy success moving forward, but his ultimate ceiling will be determined by his surroundings.
The Quarterback Situation
Joe Flacco has started the first two games of the season in place of an injured Zach Wilson. Despite all odds, the former Super Bowl MVP has been absolutely fantastic, both from a volume and efficiency standpoint. Entering Week 3, the quarterback ranks 10th in fantasy points, third in yards, 13th in EPA+CPOE, and third in PFF grade.
This is a perfect example of weird things happening in small samples. Flacco is a backup for a reason, and there is no way he continues to put up starting-caliber numbers over an extended stretch. Even if he does continue to play well, the team will turn things over to Zach Wilson when he’s finally recovered from his preseason injury. Zach Wilson is currently expected to return in Week 4, which means Garrett Wilson’s life could be changing in the immediate future.
The good news is that Garrett Wilson’s style of play meshes well with Zach Wilson’s. Zach is one of the more aggressive quarterbacks in the league and loves to air it out. This matches well with Garrett’s skill set, as the Ohio State product boasts blazing speed and currently has an 11.7 average depth of target.
Garrett Wilson’s efficiency will go down as Flacco comes back to Earth and Zach Wilson plays like Zach Wilson. However, the talent is there, and he’s already proven he can earn targets at the NFL level. While he probably won’t remain a WR1 at the end of the season, he could easily finish as a top-20 receiver when all is said and done.
