New York Jets running back Breece Hall is one of the biggest unknowns in the fantasy football landscape. The first running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, Hall landed on a team with a reliable starter in Michael Carter and a questionable quarterback in Zach Wilson. The Iowa State product will be a good player in this league, but will he be able to produce in Year 1?
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2022 Fantasy Football Profile: Breece Hall
Breece Hall the Player
As is the case with all of these profiles, we first need to look at the player himself to see if he’s actually any good at football. Hall has never played a professional snap, so it’s impossible to know if his collegiate skill set will translate to the NFL. That being said, both the film and underlying metrics agree that he should be a good NFL player.
Throughout his collegiate tenure, Hall had the ability to get the ball in just about every situation. According to PlayerProfiler, Hall had a 95th percentile college dominator rating, an 81st percentile target share, and a 94th percentile burst score. At 5′-11″ and 217 pounds, Hall has the size to be a three-down workhorse in the NFL. Based purely on numbers, his closest player comparison is Jonathan Taylor, and that’s obviously a good thing.
Of course, being good on paper doesn’t mean you can be good in the NFL. Fortunately, the film shows that Hall is a great prospect with skills that should translate to the professional level. The fact that he was the first running back taken speaks for itself, but his vision and ability to accerelate jump off the screen, and he probably has the best hands of any back in this class.
Here is what Jets rookie running back Breece Hall is capable of doing out of the backfield. New York got a good one.
pic.twitter.com/bE73zwaP2j— 77wabcsports (@77wabcsports) July 19, 2022
All of this is one long way of saying that Breece Hall has the talent to succeed in the NFL. However, just because he looks the part does not mean you should be starting him right out of the gate in fantasy. Projecting rookies is one of the hardest parts of the offseason, but there are some historical comps that can help give an idea of what to expect from Hall in 2022.
Breece Hall’s Historical Comparisons
Breece Hall is a rookie with a great profile selected early in the second round set to join a somewhat-crowded backfield on a questionable offense. If that description sounds familiar to you, it’s because it also describes Javonte Williams and D’Andre Swift.
Let’s start with Javonte Williams. Just like the Jets did with Hall, the Denver Broncos traded up to select Williams early in the second round. Starring alongside Melvin Gordon, Williams spent the entirety of his rookie season splitting work 50/50 with the established veteran. While his role slightly increased as the season progressed, he never earned the full-time workload fantasy football managers hoped for.
Similarly, D’Andre Swift began his career splitting snaps with a 35-year-old Adrian Peterson. Swift began the season as an exclusive third-down back before earning a larger role as a runner. After seeing just 12 carries in his first four games, Swift saw double-digit carries in six of his next nine games while still being a key part of the passing attack.
Hall’s primary backfield competition is 2021 fourth-round pick Michael Carter. Carter proved that he belongs in the NFL during his rookie season, and he won’t immediately give up the starting job. Based on talent alone, Carter is probably not as good as Melvin Gordon last year, but he is better than the 35-year old version of Adrian Peterson. Based on this, we can assume that Carter and Hall will split work fairly evenly throughout the 2022 season. The only question now is what type of value will the New York Jets be able to support two fantasy-relevant running backs in 2022?
Can the New York Jets Get It Done?
Volume is the best way to ensure success in fantasy football, and Breece Hall probably won’t get enough touches to get by on volume alone. With that in mind, he’ll need to make the most of what opportunities he has with efficiency in a questionable offense.
Entering the season, the Jets have a mediocre offensive line, a young stud in Elijah Moore, another promising youngster in Garrett Wilson, and a (currently) below-average quarterback in Zach Wilson. Perhaps Wilson takes a big leap, but if he doesn’t, then the Jets will probably have a below-average offense with limited scoring opportunities.
As mentioned earlier, Breece Hall is a very similar prospect to Javonte Williams, and their rookie situations are similar as well. Like Hall, Williams landed in a timeshare role on a bad offense with a subpar quarterback, two good receivers, and an average offensive line. Williams finished 2021 as the RB25 in points-per-game, so you can expect similar results from Hall in 2022.
