Week 15 is in the books and it’s on to the next one. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at the best Week 16 DraftKings plays.
Fantasy Football Week 16 DraftKings Plays
Week 15 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter#DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague@LastWordOnNFL
https://t.co/QisnnmL86s— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 20, 2021
Looking back at Week 15, it was worse than last week. This week 40% of the recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the wide receiver group led the way with a 50% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear this week with a 28.6% success rate. It was not a profitable week. The cash build lost all seven double-ups and went 1-3 in H2H’s. We’ll look to do even better with the picks and get back into the profits in the Week 16 DraftKings plays.
- Week 15 – $394 → $399 ($5 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $5,158 → $5,316 ($158 PROFIT)
Week 16 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $6,400 v NYG
Jalen Hurts has been the most consistent quarterback in fantasy football this year. He has finished as a top-12 quarterback more times than any other quarterback and that is despite missing some time due to injury as well. That is because Hurts is so dangerous with his legs. His 733 rushing yards are bested by only Lamar Jackson and his ten rushing touchdowns are the most in the league by any quarterback. Hurts is also a much better passer than most people give him credit for but he is just so good as a runner that he gets pegged as simply that. This week’s matchup against the New York Giants is solid. The Giants are middle-of-the-pack against quarterbacks this year but the Philadelphia Eagles are 10-point home favorites with an implied total of 25.5 points. There is not a safer quarterback for cash builds than Hurts, especially at this price point.
Most QB1 games this season:
11- Hurts
10-
9- Herbert, Stafford, Brady
8- Rodgers, Allen, Cousins, Mahomes
7- Prescott— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) December 22, 2021
Matt Ryan (ATL) – $5,400 v DET
It has been a pretty forgettable year for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. They are going to miss the playoffs and Ryan is averaging only 15.6 DraftKings points per game. He has not scored more than 15 DraftKings points since Week 9. A matchup against the Detroit Lions could be just what is needed to get back on track. The Lions look stronger on paper than they are. They have not allowed a ton of DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year simply because they have been getting run all over by running backs every single game. The Lions are actually one of the least efficient passing defenses in the league. The Falcons do not have a very strong running game either so it is more likely that they will need to throw more than most teams usually do against Detroit. That could make Ryan a sneaky option to return nice value.
Others to Consider: Justin Herbert (LAC) – $7,200 @ HOU, Matthew Stafford (LAC) – $6,700 @ MIN, Josh Johnson (BAL) – $4,000 @ CIN
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (MIN) – $6,800 v LAR
Every time Dalvin Cook has missed a game this year, Alexander Mattison has delivered great results. That has happened three times this year and Mattison saw at least 25 touches in all three games. He also scored at least 21.4 DraftKings points in all three games as well. Sure, the matchups in all of those games were incredible but that type of volume is so huge, especially in a great running scheme. The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams is not quite as ideal but it is not something to fear either. The Rams are middle-of-the-pack against running backs but this game environment is looking like the best on the slate. This game has the highest combined total at 49 points and also projects to be one of the fastest-paced games as well. Mattison should be at least $1,000 more expensive so take advantage.
Ronald Jones (TB) – $5,100 @ CAR
From one injury replacement to another, Ronald Jones is set up for a workhorse role this week and likely the rest of the season as Leonard Fournette deals with an injury. Jones has teased his fantasy potential over the years but has had many bouts with fumbling and inconsistency that has led to him getting benched. At this point, however, Jones should get all the work he can handle and is in a great offense. Those two things go a very long way for running backs. The matchup against the Carolina Panthers looks a bit worse on paper because of how strong they were to start the year. They have not been the same team after that opening five weeks or so. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently 10-point road favorites with a 26.5-point implied total. Any time a running back is this cheap and in that situation, it is a great spot to be in.
Bruce Arians says it's Ronald Jones' time now to do what Leonard Fournette did late last year when Jones got hurt. Arians says it's Jones's job right now.
— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) December 20, 2021
Justin Jackson (LAC) – $4,200 @ HOU
The theme of this slate, and fantasy football in general right now, is injury replacements, especially due to COVID. Here is another one. Austin Ekeler is out this week which leaves Justin Jackson as the likeliest running back to soak up most of his usage. Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree will also likely be complimentary pieces as well but even last week Jackson saw 13 carries and a target. This matchup against the Houston Texans is one of the juiciest out there. The Texans allow the sixth-most DraftKings points to running backs this year. The Los Angeles Chargers are currently 10.5-point road favorites with a 28.5-point implied total, which is the highest on the slate. At this price, if Jackson sees around 15 touches, it is very likely he should return nice value in this situation.
Others to Consider: James Robinson (JAX) – $5,900 @ NYJ, David Montgomery (CHI) – 5,700 @ SEA, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) – $5,800 v PIT, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $6,000 v DEN
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp (LAR) – $9,000 @ MIN
Cooper Kupp has become this year’s Christian McCaffrey or Davante Adams. Basically, if Kupp is under $10,000 he becomes a near must-play. He is currently on a record-breaking pace and is very close to doing so. Kupp and Matthew Stafford have been a perfect pairing in this Rams offense. This matchup against the Minnesota Vikings is as good as it gets for Kupp. The Vikings have allowed the most DraftKings points to wide receivers this year. As previously mentioned, this game also has the highest combined total on the slate and projects to be one of the fastest-paced as well. This one will also be played in a dome so all signs point to Kupp having another monster outing here.
#Rams WR Cooper Kupp this season.
Receptions: 122 (1st in NFL)
— Next closest player: 102Receiving yards: 1,625 (1st in NFL)
— Next closest player: 1,335Receiving TDs: 14 (1st in NFL)
— Next closest player: 11What. A. Season. pic.twitter.com/unbS4dyJ6h
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 22, 2021
Antonio Brown (TB) – $4,900 @ CAR
Last week the Buccaneers lost both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to injury. Godwin’s injury was much more serious but the team will be without both of them this weekend. The return of Antonio Brown will be a very welcome sight for Tampa Bay. Brown was playing very well earlier in the year before missing time due to injury and suspension. Tom Brady seemed to be locking on to him early and often. Brown was averaging 20.3 DraftKings points per game before missing time. He should step right back into a massive target share against the Panthers. The Panthers aren’t a great matchup but it is not one to avoid either. There is just too much volume in a great offense and such a great price to pass up here.
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) – $3,500 v JAX
Don’t look now but Braxton Berrios has now racked up two straight double-digit DraftKings point performances for the New York Jets. One of those outings was a game in which he saw 10 targets. In that game, the Jets were missing both Corey Davis and Elijah Moore. Davis is out for the season and Moore is still out. In addition to that, Jamison Crowder is likely out as well. That will leave Berrios as the de facto alpha wide receiver for the Jets. That does not sound great but somebody has to catch the ball in this one and it would not be surprising at all for him to see another 10 targets in this one. The matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars is a good one. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this year and are not a good defense whatsoever. Berrios is just far too cheap for the likely volume he will see in this one.
Others to Consider: Diontae Johnson (PIT) – $7,500 @ KC, Joshua Palmer (LAC) – $3,300 @ HOU, D.J. Moore (CAR) – $5,700 v TB, Nico Collins (HOU) – $3,400 v LAC, Laquon Treadwell (JAX) – $3,500 @ NYJ
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski (TB) – $6,200 @ CAR
As previously mentioned, the Buccaneers pass-catching corps is hurting. Surprisingly, Rob Gronkowski is one of the few still healthy. He has had an incredible year this year averaging 14.6 DraftKings points per game. With all of Fournette, Godwin, and Evans out, it is very likely that Gronkowski sees a healthy target share bump in this one. The Panthers have been middle-of-the-road against tight ends this year but that should not matter one way or another for Gronkowski. The Buccaneers are still the heavy favorites and he is still one of Brady’s most trusted targets. When spending up this week, Gronkowski looks like a solid option.
Gronk continues to solidify his legacy 💪 pic.twitter.com/R9YLPJnjzE
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) December 20, 2021
Cole Kmet (CHI) – $3,300 @ SEA
Cole Kmet has had a bit of an up-and-down season to this point. The second-year tight end has shown plenty of promise at times but consistency has not been part of his game this year. Kmet has fluctuated from heavily involved to nearly invisible at times. Recently it seems as though he has been much more involved. Just last week Kmet saw nine targets and has seen 32 targets over the last four weeks combined. Any tight end seeing eight targets a game is going to be very intriguing. That tight end becomes even more intriguing when they are this cheap and in this good of a matchup. The Chicago Bears take on the Seattle Seahawks in this one and Seattle has struggled against tight ends this year. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year. Allen Robinson is still out and that should help cement Kmet’s target share. He is shaping up as one of the best value options at tight end this week.
Others to Consider: Dallas Goedert (PHI) – $5,100 v NYG, Jared Cook (LAC) – $3,500 @ HOU, James O’Shaughnessy (JAX) – $3,200 @ NYJ
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Jalen Hurts
- RB – Ronald Jones
- RB – Justin Jackson
- WR – Cooper Kupp
- WR – Diontae Johnson
- WR – Antonio Brown
- TE – Cole Kmet
- Flex – Alexander Mattison
- DST – Atlanta Falcons
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 16 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 17. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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Main Photo:
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