Accurately evaluating rookie running backs like Javonte Williams is one of the hardest tasks in fantasy football. On the one hand, Denver clearly has a plan for the North Carolina product, and they clearly want him to see the field early and often. On the other hand, rookies usually need a bit of time before they’re ready for NFL action, especially when there is a proven player already on the depth chart. Given the wide range of outcomes, what should fantasy football owners expect out of Javonte Williams in 2021?
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2021 Fantasy Football Outlook: Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams the Player
Before we look at his situation, we first need to look at Williams as an NFL prospect. Running back is a plug-and-play position, but a player needs to be talented in order to actually make it onto the field in the first place. The Denver Broncos selected Williams with the 35th pick in the NFL Draft, but they traded up to do so. When factoring in the trade cost, Denver gave up essentially the equivalent value of a late first-round pick in order to secure Williams’ services.
Williams has the draft capital to succeed at the NFL level, but that’s not always enough. Fortunately, the running back also happened to be fantastic in college, as both the film and analytics communities believe he has what it takes to succeed at the NFL level. Pro Football Focus grades tell us that Williams was one of the best in the league as both a runner and a receiver, while the numbers tell us that he is a fantastic athlete and hit all the major production thresholds that tend to predict NFL success.
PFF has charted college players since 2016. Javonte Williams all-time percentiles*
2020
Rushing grade: 100
Forced missed tackle rate: 100
Receiving grade: 932019
Rushing grade: 92
Forced missed tackle rate: 97
Receiving grade: 99*Among 1,033 50+ carry & 10+ target seasons
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) February 24, 2021
All of this is one long roundabout way of saying that Javonte Williams should be a very good NFL running back eventually. However, you can’t alwasy afford to wait around in redraft leagues, so how early can he get onto the field?
Evaluating the Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Landscape
The Denver Broncos should offer decent fantasy upside for a running back. While there is a massive question at quarterback, the elite offensive weapons should ensure that there are enough scoring opportunities to go around. Additionally, Denver has a great defense, which means that the Broncos could spend some games killing the clock with their running game. Again, this isn’t a Kyle Shanahan offense by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s good enough for the right running back to put up a strong season.
Of course, the biggest problem here is the presence of Melvin Gordon. The veteran running back isn’t the player he once was, but he is still going to lead this backfield. Last year, the former first-round pick finished as the RB14 in PPR leagues while finishing as PFF’s 32nd-best running back. He’s still a capable player and isn’t going to immediately give up the starting job.
Gordon currently carries an $8.9 million cap hit, and the Broncos could create $2.4 million in spending money by parting ways with the veteran. However, all reports out of camp currently suggest that Gordon will be Denver’s primary running back, at least early in the season.
Gordon will be RB1, at least early. https://t.co/nkOIFtO4pa
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) August 20, 2021
The closest comparable situation to Gordon and Williams comes from the 2020 Baltimore Ravens. While the team selected J.K. Dobbins in the second round, incumbent starter Mark Ingram earned the majority of the work early in the year. However, as the season progressed, Dobbins earned the starting job and never gave it back. Look for something similar to happen with Gordon and Williams towards the back half of the season.
Javonte Williams Fantasy Football Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Underdog Fantasy ADP has Javonte Williams going off the board as the RB24 with the 63rd overall pick. This puts him right in the same range as guys like Josh Jacobs, Mike Davis, and Kareem Hunt. I would personally take Jacobs over any of those backs without thinking twice, but choosing between Williams and Davis/Hunt is a very difficult decision.
Ultimately, if you want a safe floor or an immediate contributor, go with Davis or Hunt. Both players have a much easier path to playing time and should be flex-worthy starts throughout the season. If, however, you’re chasing upside, then go with Javonte Williams. Williams isn’t going to be anything more than a roster clog early in the season, but he has the potential to singlehandedly win your league down the stretch.
Going back to the Baltimore example, J.K. Dobbins was the RB44 through the first seven weeks of the season. However, once he earned the starting job, Dobbins became the RB11 from Weeks 8-17. Keep in mind that this includes Week 12, a game he missed due to COVID-19. Williams probably won’t have Dobbins’ rushing efficiency (playing with Lamar Jackson is the best thing possible for a running back), but his work in the passing game should be enough to give him a good shot at being an RB1 in the final half of the season.
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