Broncos Country is upset. They have every right to be after Vic Fangio’s ineptitude at game management cost the Denver Broncos their Week 17 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite the loss, the game was a mixed bag as far as it concerned the offense, specifically in regards to offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. After completing his first full season with Denver, Shurmur’s performance in this role offers some interesting comparisons to one-and-done offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. It is already a guarantee Shurmur will return for the 2021 season, making now as good a time as any for a Shurmur progress report.
A Pat Shurmur 2020 Progress Report
Contextualizing Pat Shurmur’s 2020
Pat Shurmur’s search for consistency, albeit hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic and an aggressive rash of injuries, was for naught. When Shurmur was hired by Denver last off-season, he inherited a team that finished 2019 28th in points and 28th in yards, both of which were the worst in franchise history. Despite considerable upgrades at every level of the offense (including the introduction of veteran Melvin Gordon III and rookies Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler), the 2020 Broncos repeated themselves, finishing the season ranked 28th in points. They did, however, improve in yardage by jumping five places from 28th to 23rd, a somewhat insignificant feat.
Without their starting wide receiver and right tackle, the offense faltered with a quarterback who only finished his 16th start (excluding his game against the Pittsburgh Steelers for obvious reasons) in Week 16. They accrued their worst point differential since 2010, the worst season in franchise history, earning Shurmur the third-worst points ranking in his career of over two decades.
After averaging over 22 points per game in the first eight games of the 2020 campaign, Shurmur’s offense regressed to under 19 points per game. They lost six of their last eight games in the process. This further illustrates a disquieting similarity between Shurmur and Scangarello, who was simply not good enough to warrant a second season with the team.
The latter was inept in properly utilizing personnel and scheming to their strengths (for which he was fired); while Shurmur certainly has shown flashes of competency in this regard (something Scangarello never accomplished), he, too, has displayed a similar level of misunderstanding his personnel. Like Scangarello, Shurmur also put quite a bit of situational obliviousness on film.
Loss Vegas
Denver’s narrow defeat at the hands of the Las Vegas Raiders acts as a microcosm of the issues that plagued Pat Shurmur and the Broncos offense in 2020. It also emphasized how catastrophic the continued implosion of the franchise will prove should these pervasive issues not receive proper attention.
The passing offense was interesting for the most part, accruing 339 passing yards— a career high for Drew Lock and playing a full game without turning the ball over (except on downs) for the first time all season. Shurmur managed to call up some particularly effective plays, notably the excellent Cover 2 beater late in the fourth to get Jeudy open for a 92-yard catch-and-run for a go-ahead touchdown. Unlike seemingly every other use of a timeout in the game, the timeout used immediately before this play was perfectly executed.
Even so, Shurmur also continued to embody some of the aforementioned pervasive issues. There were far too many shotgun plays in and-short situations, such as the failed fourth-down conversion attempt in the second quarter. Without the illusion of the run in what are, to most, running situations, defenses are more accurately and adequately able to counteract the offense’s strategy. The lack of misdirection in these short and intermediate running situations also factored into the loss.
Scheming Shortcomings
A Pat Shurmur progress report is incomplete without addressing the specifics of personnel usage, especially as it pertains to skill players.
Jerry Jeudy broke the century mark in receiving yards for the first time since Week 9, scoring his third touchdown of the season and earning his best catch percentage in a game in his career. Despite these facts, there were not nearly enough schemed throws to Jeudy. Had they schemed the ball to Jeudy more often, the offense would have found more success in maintaining the lead, regardless of Jeudy’s five drops on 15 targets in Week 16.
Screen passes, for the sake of example, could have accomplished this. Pat Shurmur and Rich Scangarello both seemed opposed to employing these useful plays outside of a handful of screens to Noah Fant.
After consistently targeting rookie wideout Tyrie Cleveland in the first half, Lock’s connection with Jeudy should have been enough to earn the win. Because Shurmur failed to adequately scheme the ball to Jeudy outside of the Cover 2 beater, the offense was unable to chew the clock down enough to hold onto the lead.
Situational Obliviousness
Backs against the wall and faced with the prospect of setting the record for fewest takeaways in a season, the Broncos defense stepped up (for the most part) in a major way, accruing two interceptions and two fumble recoveries. As even high school junior varsity coaches can confirm, the most effective strategy after a takeaway is a fast-change play, usually capitalizing on the swing in momentum by taking a shot deep. Shurmur, however, opted against the logical choice in three of the team’s four such situations.
A run for two yards was the offensive play-call immediately following three of the team’s four takeaways. On all three of these drives, the offense faltered. One drive ended in a missed field goal, another in a field goal to cut the deficit to one. Their final drive following a turnover ended with a punt after a three-and-out and negative eight yards. The solitary drive beginning with a pass after a takeaway (a 13-yard pickup from Melvin Gordon) unsurprisingly ended in a touchdown.
After a season marred by inconsistency and perpetually ineffectual efforts in terms of situational play-calling, this failure to properly identify and call fitting plays in key situations is cause for grave concern in Denver. This lack of situational competency must play a significant role in any Pat Shurmur progress report.
Pat Shurmur Progress Report Grades
Run Game Coordination
Equal parts surprisingly and unsurprisingly, the Broncos offense (with the addition of Melvin Gordon and Graham Glasgow) rushed for almost 300 more yards in 2020 than they did in 2019 and just slightly more than they had in 2018. Shurmur managed the run game inconsistently, averaging about 120 rushing yards per game as a team.
While 1,918 yards on the season is an objective improvement, the offense left quite a bit of yardage on the field as a result of Shurmur’s misuse of personnel and failure to adequately scheme for Phillip Lindsay.
Run Game Coordination Grade: C/C+
Passing Game Coordination
At one point, the Broncos were first in the league in deep pass attempts, last in the league in passes behind or around the line of scrimmage, and last in the league in completions on deep pass attempts. Contextualizing these statistics through Drew Lock having yet to complete a rookie season’s worth of games illustrates the absurdity of the schematic decisions about the passing attack. While it is certainly true Shurmur calmed this down and was able to employ play designs with higher percentage throws involved, the fact it took as long as it did should unnerve for Broncos Country.
Passing Game Coordination Grade: D
Situational Play-Calling
There is not much to say regarding Shurmur’s inability to adequately call plays in key situations that has not already been said. Perpetual running plays on 2nd-and-10, running the ball in fast-change situations, and aggressive down-field passing designs on more easily convertible and-short downs are a mere starting point for cataloguing all of the examples of Pat Shurmur’s baffling situational play-calling.
His situational awareness should improve next season when continued reps and the first full off-season program in two years have had a chance to influence the chemistry of the young offense. Receiving the boon of the returning Courtland Sutton should also prove beneficial for Shurmur settling into his role at the helm of the offense.
Situational Play-Calling Grade: F
Adjustments
Surprisingly, it seems Pat Shurmur may have been the only coach on the staff making noticeable adjustments at halftime throughout the year. While these adjustments were not always effective or logical, the personality of the offense was often noticeably different in the second half of games than in the first. Some contend this is a result of poor game-planning in the first half and effective adjustments in the second half, while others attribute the shift in demeanor to Drew Lock and the players themselves instead of Shurmur.
Adjustments Grade: C+
Overall
Pat Shurmur’s main purpose as the offensive coordinator of the Denver Broncos was to develop Drew Lock and architect a scheme fitting the strengths of the young passer and the remaining 10 starters on the offense. Lock regressed significantly, though he continued showing flashes of the it-factor that led to the Broncos front office spending a second round pick on him. Unfortunately, Shurmur also failed to scheme to the strength of his personnel. As a result of these two failures in his primary purposes in this role, most think of his first year in Denver as a failure. The flashes of efficiency, however, suggest there is a possibility of respite in a healthier 2021.
Overall Grade: D+/C
The Last Word
At the beginning of the season, it was correctly postulated Shurmur would need to learn from Scangarello’s mistakes and not only his own if he hoped to lead the Broncos to a top-five offense as he did with the Philadelphia Eagles. Even when accounting for the unpredictable obstacles of a global (and nationally mismanaged) pandemic and a bizarrely high number of injuries, it is clear Shurmur failed to do so. With the personnel at his fingertips in Denver, these excuses can only take Shurmur so far.
The Broncos do not yet know if Drew Lock is ‘the guy’ in orange and blue, and Pat Shurmur’s future with the team ties directly into his development of the young passer. After a bottom-five performance from Shurmur in 2020, Broncos Country must adjust their expectations accordingly. Instead of hoping for a top-five offense in 2021, they must simply hope Shurmur settles into the role, finds, establishes, and maintains stability, and develops Lock and the other young offensive players enough to be competitive. Scraping the bottom of the barrel for a sixth straight season is not an option if Shurmur wants to keep his job.
The future for the Denver Broncos is undeniably bright, but only time and effort will tell whether or not this future involves Pat Shurmur.
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