The 2026 Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback competition is a sobering reminder that 2024 really wasn’t too long ago.
For that matter, it wasn’t even two years ago at this point when the Vikings had just completed a 14-3 season, which, despite not ending the way they wanted it to, surprised many people and showed clear direction for a franchise that many expected to struggle finding it following the end of the Kirk Cousins era.
Sam Darnold started all 17 games that year for the Vikings, tossing 35 touchdowns to go along with 4,319 yards and just 12 interceptions. He was 10th in Most Valuable Player (MVP) voting and helped lead star receiver Justin Jefferson to earn an All-Pro First Team bid as he eclipsed 103 receptions for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns.
But through it all, the question always remained: what was going to happen to J.J. McCarthy?
See, the Vikings drafted McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 draft and fully expected Darnold to back him up at quarterback for that season before McCarthy tore his meniscus in the team’s first preseason game that year. Obviously, Darnold stepped in from there, and the rest is history.
After the 2024 season ended, Darnold was set to become a free agent, which created a difficult question for the Vikings: do we stick with what we know works and leave our top-10 pick on the bench, or do we stick to the plan and go with McCarthy?
Well, as everyone knows now, Darnold signed with the Seahawks and dominantly won a Super Bowl while the Vikings chose option number two leading to one of the more disappointing and tumultuous seasons recently for Minnesota.
The Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 while McCarthy threw 12 interceptions and just 11 touchdowns in the 10 games he started. Pro Football Focus gave him a grade of 61.8 which was 35th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks and, to make matters worse, Justin Jefferson just narrowly had over 1,000 yards receiving and only two touchdowns on the season.
Now, finally at present day, the Vikings signed veteran quarterback Kyler Murray to a one-year, $1,300,000 minimum contract after he was released from his massive deal by the Arizona Cardinals. The intention here, of course, was to create a Vikings quarterback competition between Murray and McCarthy as Vikings training camp begins Aug. 1.
But, the question remains, who’s more likely to win this Vikings quarterback competition?
Breaking Down the 2026 Vikings Quarterback Competition
First, let’s break down Kyler Murray and the case he has to take over the starting job from McCarthy in 2026.
For one, it’s essentially a given that Murray is the better NFL quarterback at this very moment. Despite the inconsistencies and lack of success in Arizona, Murray has a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio in his career over 87 games started and is also a major threat with his legs running for over 3,000 yards and 32 rushing touchdowns in his career.
The two-time Pro Bowler was given a 72.2 PFF grade in 2025 which was 22nd among the qualified quarterbacks (compared to McCarthy who was 35th) and was on pace for another solid statistical season despite the Cardinals’ struggles.
The biggest knock-on Murray is his size and injuries over the past couple years.
Murray is just 5-feet-10, and that lack of height has been a problem throughout his career due to not being able to see all his targets (leading to increased scrambling and therefore increased injury risk).
On the injury front, he played all 17 games in 2024 but that was sandwiched between two seasons in which he played just 13 combined. He also only played 11 games in 2022.
Murray is only 28 years old but the questions surrounding his height, injury risk, and lack of team success in the past are certainly valid.
But he is the more proven option at quarterback and would have a much better infrastructure to work with in Minnesota than he did in Arizona.
Now it’s time to talk about the man he will be competing with.
McCarthy’s statistical profile from 2025 is not pretty, as shown earlier, but there are some reasons for optimism and a case to be made for him to be the starter as well.
For one, McCarthy is only 23 years old and has just 10 NFL starts under his belt. He was also playing his first NFL seasons after just coming off recovering a torn meniscus with lofty expectations to replicate a 14-win season that his team had just had.
McCarthy also has the prototypical quarterback build. He’s 6-foot-3, 2020 pounds and was a top 10 pick for a reason as he helped lead Michigan to a College Football Playoff National Championship win in 2024 just months before he was drafted.
But, unlike with Murray, many of the arguments for McCarthy are purely based in hypotheticals. It’s all very unknown with him and while that can be intriguing, it’s exactly what burned the Vikings last year when they let Darnold walk and gave the keys to McCarthy.
So, who is more likely to be the starter come week one?
Will It Be McCarthy or Murray?
Truthfully, there’s really no way to know this answer until training camp begins, but it never hurts to make an educated guess.
First, here are the options that the Vikings realistically have when it comes to this situation. One, they can start McCarthy. Two, they can start Murray. And then three, they could try and trade McCarthy to get something out of that draft pick and let Murray be the stopgap at quarterback for 2026.
Option three might be their best bet, but it’s also the least likely.
In most cases, teams don’t want their top 10 picks to be on the bench by year two, especially at quarterback (which is exactly why the Falcons who are in a similar position might start Michael Penix Jr. over Tua Tagovailoa).
But the Vikings are in a difficult spot in the sense that the rest of that roster is ready to win now.
In 2025, the Vikings defense was elite allowing just 19.6 points per game and when it comes to their other skill position groups on offense the talent is abundant with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings at wideout, T.J. Hockenson at tight end and Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason at running back.
Letting McCarthy continue to go through growing pains isn’t exactly something they can afford to do, and it’s not even clear that they want to in the first place since they did bring Murray in to compete for the job.
Long story short, if the Vikings are going to prioritize this talented roster and winning games in 2026, Murray should likely be the quarterback, at least come week one.
And, after what happened with the Darnold situation in 2025, I’m not sure the Vikings would make that same mistake again.
Whether the Vikings choose to try and trade McCarthy or let their former top-1o pick sit on the bench is another question altogether, but McCarthy had his chance to cement this job as his in 2025 when the Vikings let Darnold walk for him and he didn’t capitalize.
Truthfully, both these quarterbacks put themselves in this position in different ways over the past year and now they both have to compete for what will be a job with very real expectations of winning this season.
This Vikings quarterback competition is set to be one of the most watched position battles in all of the NFL come August and it will be interesting to see what the Vikings value more when it comes decision time: the veteran who can help the team win now, or the intrigue of a 23-year-old top-10 pick who could be the possible long-term solution at quarterback.
Main Image: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
