Multiple outlets have Todd Bowles’ seat hot heading into this season. Read why Bowles’ job is widely regarded as insecure and what he can do to change that in 2026.
Experts Agree: Todd Bowles’ Seat Is Scorching-Hot Heading into 2026
Bowles is coming off his worst season as the head coach in Tampa Bay.
The Bucs finished the season by losing seven of their final nine games, finishing 8-9 and missing the playoffs for the first time under Bowles. It marked Tampa Bay’s first missed playoff appearance since the 2019 season and raised questions about Bowles’ job security.
Tampa Bay is 35-33 in the regular season since Bowles took over in March 2022 following Bruce Arians’ retirement. Bowles is 1-3 in the playoffs, with the Divisional Round in 2023 marking the furthest the Bucs have advanced under his leadership.
The combination of Tampa Bay’s struggles last season and Bowles’ inability to break through in the playoffs has made him a popular choice on lists of NFL coaches on the hot seat entering training camp.
Last week, CBS Sports ranked Bowles as having the second-hottest seat in the league. Earlier in June, Pro Football Focus named Bowles one of six coaches on the hot seat. In February, Fox Sports ranked Bowles as having the third-hottest seat in the NFL.
What have the Bucs’ Executives Said About Bowles’ Job Security?
Earlier this offseason, Bucs owner Joel Glazer expressed confidence in Bowles despite the disappointing finish.
“And again, everybody has injuries, but I think we had some significant challenges we had to deal with last year. It was unfortunate down the stretch — frustrating down the stretch — but you see week in and week out, this team plays hard for Todd [Bowles]. Nobody lays down. You have the odd game where things don’t quite go your way, but every game until the final whistle, these players are fighting, fighting, fighting,” Glazer said while discussing Bowles’ performance in 2025.
Bowles’ retention was a luxury not all Tampa Bay coaches have received. Since the Glazer family has owned the Bucs, it has fired Lovie Smith and Greg Schiano after two seasons and Raheem Morris after three seasons. Tampa Bay has also moved on from successful head coaches Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden despite winning tenures.
General manager Jason Licht also defended Bowles at the NFL owners meetings.
“I think Todd has done a really good job in a lot of areas that we feel like he’s the right man to steady the ship,” Licht said.
The Bucs’ struggles to close the 2025 season did not come without consequences. Five coaches were let go after the season: offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey, quarterbacks coach Thaddeus Lewis, defensive line coach Charlie Strong and cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross. Offensive assistant Tom Moore and safeties coach Nick Rapone retired.
Bowles said at the owners’ meetings that the coaching staff changes were not mandated by the Bucs’ ownership group.
What Does Bowles Need to Do to Get off the Hot Seat?
The coaching staff overhaul signals that Bowles is entering a make-or-break season.
Glazer did not set specific expectations for Bowles when asked at the owners’ meetings.
“The National Football League, every year, every coach you see the turnover,” Glazer said. “It’s a tough job, a lot of expectations. But no [there is no stated win total that Bowles has to reach]. To just set certain goals, you’ve got to look at everything, every situation. You’ve got to look at your team. You’ve got to look where it is in the journey to where you’re trying to get to. After we won the Super Bowl, everyone expected the floor to fall out for this franchise. It’s hard to win the Super Bowl and turn it around real quick and win it again. You’ve got the salary cap and everything you’re dealing with. There’s so much involved — injuries — that come into play.”
However, for Bowles’ season to be viewed as a success, he likely needs to lead the Bucs back to the top of the NFC South. Tampa Bay’s four-year NFC South title streak ended last season when the Panthers won the division. Meanwhile, the Saints, Falcons and Panthers have combined for just three winning seasons during the 2020s.
Bowles will likely also need to reach double-digit wins, something he has accomplished only twice in his nine seasons as a head coach with the Jets and Bucs.
If Tampa Bay reaches double-digit wins, it will also likely need to show growth in the playoffs for the organization to feel comfortable moving forward with Bowles.
If the Bucs can win at least one playoff game while posting a double-digit-win season, Bowles should be in position to return for the 2027 season. Anything less, and the buzz surrounding his hot seat could become reality.
Main Image: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
