For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes’ stats have begun to decline overall. Further, the Kansas City Chiefs are no longer a lock in the AFC West. One must ask, is this the beginning of the end for Patrick Mahomes?
The Beginning of the End for Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes finished the 2025 season with 3,587 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 89.6 passer rating. Barring 2017, when he stood on the sideline in front of Alex Smith and only played one game, this is the lowest passer rating of his starting career.
Beginning of the End for Patrick Mahomes: The numbers do not lie
Superficially, it’s easy to understand the discourse.
Touchdowns have gone missing. Yardage numbers have dropped. Numbers that once looked like the cheat code of a video game seem like something you’d merely scroll by.
Understandably, the conversation arises.
Is this the beginning of the end for Patrick Mahomes?
Absolutely not.
The numbers don’t tell the story, and they don’t even come close to painting a complete picture.
Offensive weapons are not the same
Let’s begin with who he has around him. Though Travis Kelce remains on the roster, he’s not “peak Kelce” any longer. His physical numbers continue to trend down with age, and although still an integral and reliable piece, he’s not the game-altering, every-down mismatch he once was. Other than that, the Chiefs really haven’t loaded up on any proven stud weapons.
Their current game plan is gambling on the development of their young pass catchers.
It’s assumed Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy will experience a leap in their production numbers, and clearly, the talent is there to make that happen. But, expecting unproven youngsters to immediately absorb proven production is never a guaranteed proposition.
Defense has been the primary focus
The front office also did not target any superstar skill players through the free agent market.
Instead, they built for the future, especially on defense. They focused on keeping Patrick Mahomes upright and injury-free rather than putting the onus on his arm strength and ability to be Superman once again. It was a logical move that simply does not result in 50 touchdown seasons.
A different style of offense
And this is the one place where the numbers really lie to you. The Chiefs’ offense isn’t one of the offenses of years past that walks out of the tunnel looking to simply out-throw opponents before the second quarter is over. The offense is slower. They take fewer shots deep, and their drives are more methodical. It is less explosive but much more sustainable.
And that is why Mahomes must be commended. He hasn’t forced things or chased stats to prove that he can still do what he did five years ago. He adapted. Anyone can look like a Hall of Famer when they’re surrounded by elite talent; great quarterbacks are those who can win with less.
Will Mahomes ever post career-high numbers again?
This is not the beginning of the end for Mahomes. Will he ever get back to 5,000-yard, 40+ touchdown seasons? Possibly. Will it ever happen without any upgrades in the passing game, another elite playmaker for him to work with, and an offense that resembles what it once was? Probably not. That’s not where the Chiefs are at right now. And honestly, that’s okay. This isn’t Mahomes chasing numbers. This is Patrick Mahomes managing a game. He is winning games in ways that don’t often translate to your fantasy football scoreboard. Maybe he never throws for those many yards again. That doesn’t mean that he’s slowed down; he’s simply finding new ways to win games.
