The recency bias on Christian McCaffrey is something to take advantage of in early 2025 best ball drafts. In the spring, we wrote a series of articles dealing with Fantasy takeaways from the 2024 season. One of the major points we emphasized was whether you won a high-stakes fantasy championship or are a recreational player who won your home league, be proactive. The NFL calendar is year-round. Savvy fantasy players are on top of past season results and will use recency bias to their advantage.
It is a necessary grind to afford managers the best chance to build championship rosters for the 2025 fantasy season. There are schools of thought within the fantasy community that early drafting can be advantageous. Right now, no reports are coming out of mandatory OTAs to drive up player ADPs. In addition, training camp is still about two months away. We have a player we have been targeting in our 2025 best ball drafts that is somewhat of a value early in the early draft season.
Christian McCaffrey Is an Early Value in 2025 Best Ball Drafts
Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 Shouldn’t Sway Opinion
If you were one of the people who drafted Christian McCaffrey at 1.1 last season, you were no doubt burned. McCaffrey delivered nowhere near the value of his ADP. I was included in that large group of fantasy managers. However, do not let that automatically dismiss you from considering him in fantasy drafts. Recency bias can be detrimental to building a fantasy football championship roster. Best Ball draft season is in full swing on sites such as Drafters and Underdog. In a Drafters mini best ball championship draft, I was able to start my roster with Ashton Jeanty at pick 11 and McCaffrey at pick 14. It would be a shock if his price tag stayed once reports start trickling in from OTAs and then training camp. His current ADP sits at 12.5 and will gradually rise into the first round as the 2025 fantasy season heats up.
A Healthy McCaffrey Will Produce the Fantasy Numbers
Christian McCaffrey is reported to be fully healthy as he enters the 2025 season. In the three full games he played last season, the fantasy numbers were there for him. McCaffrey averaged just under 19 touches, 93.7 total yards per game, and played at least 80% of the snaps. As we look further into the metrics, CMC produced a 22% missed tackle rate and 1.80 yards per route run. Those two data points were both top 10 among qualified running backs.
Let us not forget what a full-strength Christian McCaffrey looks like. In the 2023 fantasy season, he produced 21 touchdowns, over 2000 yards from scrimmage, and 24.5 fantasy points per game. We also have to consider that Deebo Samuel is no longer with the 49ers. His absence helps McCaffrey twofold. First, Samuel was often used in goal-line situations, and McCaffrey would yield some scoring opportunities to Deebo. Second, McCaffrey is already a lethal option in the passing game, and Samuel’s absence could potentially increase his target share. Again, savvy fantasy owners will use recency bias to their advantage, and getting McCaffrey in the second round of a draft is a steal.
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