The Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs are two of the best teams in football, and both organizations should make the playoffs in 2024. According to NFL.com, the 9-1 Chiefs have a 99% chance of making the postseason, while Jim Harbaugh’s 7-3 squad currently holds the fifth seed and a 90% chance of seeing meaningful January football. Making the playoffs is the most important thing, but winning the division increases the likelihood of winning it all.
As of this posting, the 9-1 Chiefs hold the AFC West crown and the first-overall seed in the playoff picture. The first-overall seed comes with the lone bye week, meaning whoever holds it only needs to win three postseason games to become Super Bowl champion. While Kansas City is currently the frontrunner to hold the title, the Chargers still have a chance to take away homefield advantage and possibly win the division for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes Era.
How the Chargers Can Hurt the Chiefs Chances In the Playoffs
Step 1: Win Week 14
The most important part is winning the head-to-head matchup. Currently two games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West race, the Chargers must win this game if they want any shot of hosting a game in the playoffs. Los Angeles narrowly lost the first matchup, but Justin Herbert was not at full strength. The former first-round pick suffered a Lisfranc injury in the offseason and a high-ankle sprain and lacked his patented mobility and strength to drive the ball downfield.
Since the bye week, Herbert has been arguably the NFL’s best quarterback. Despite lackluster weapons, the Pro Bowler has completed 63.5% of his passes on the season for 2,186 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just one interception. Beating the Chiefs is never easy, but the Chargers have the roster to do it. Herbert is playing like an elite quarterback, the offensive line is sound, and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has this unit playing like one of the best in football. If the Chargers beat the Chiefs, then it could allow the Buffalo Bills or Pittsburgh Steelers to claim the top seed.
Taking the bye week away from the Chiefs would be satisfying, but it’s not the Chargers end goal. Ultimately, the team wants to win the AFC West, and even if they beat the Chiefs, they’ll need some help for that to happen.
Step 2: Hope
If the Chargers want to win the AFC West, they’ll need to win out and hope the Chiefs lose at least one additional game. Splitting the head-to-head matchups means tiebreakers could determine the AFC West champion, and it’s too early in the season to know who benefits from that scenario. With that being said, the Chargers must first take care of business before worrying about the AFC West standings.
Winning out is easier said than done, especially with the remaining opponents on the schedule. In addition to Kansas City, the Chargers face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12 and the inconsistent yet dangerous Denver Broncos in Week 16. Baltimore is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and could treat Week 12 as a must-win game in their quest for the AFC North title. The Broncos, meanwhile, have a strong defense and could be dangerous depending on which version of first-round pick Bo Nix shows up.
The Chargers will still need the Chiefs to lose at least one game if they want to host a game in the playoffs. Fortunately, Kansas City faces the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos to close out the season. The Chiefs are a dangerous team, but they’re not quite as good as their 9-1 record suggests. The team is an unsustainable 7-0 in one-score games, and regression to the mean could lead to an extra loss late in the season. The Chiefs are still division favorites, but the Chargers have a path to catching them before the end of the season.
Main Photo: Kirby Lee – USA Today Sports
