The Chicago Bears finally believe they have their franchise quarterback, and this fall is a chance to see if they truly do. Caleb Williams was taken as the first overall pick for a reason, but what should fantasy football players expect from him in his first year?
2024 Fantasy Football Profile: Caleb Williams
2023 in Review
Williams is a rookie, but he definitely made a name for himself in the NCAA last season. He posted 3,633 yards with 30 touchdown passes and just five interceptions. Williams also added 11 touchdowns on the ground with 136 yards. If those numbers were translated to NFL fantasy football, he would’ve finished with 334.92 fantasy points… good enough for QB5 in 2023 (1 point for every 25 passing yards, 4 points for passing touchdowns, -2 points for interceptions, 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, 6 points for rushing touchdowns).
Even if you take a 20% “reduction tax” from his stats, he still would finish with 267.94 fantasy points and be QB14. There’s obviously a big difference between college football and the NFL, but a 6:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is a crazy stat at any level. Williams has the “it” factor and will make a difference this year.
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2024 Projection
Looking at Williams numbers in 2023, he produced those numbers by throwing to Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice. While they are talented receivers, they aren’t Rome Odunze, D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen. The Bears have secretly built one of the league’s best receiver trios if Allen can stay healthy.
https://twitter.com/TonyCMKE/status/1824897579106419046
Having a receiver room like this is only going to help Williams. No rookie quarterback or (quarterback in general) has ever been hurt by having multiple, talented wide receivers. The Bears are going to want Williams to work it around, but one player will break out as his top target.
This doesn’t even include Cole Kmet, who got skipped over last year. Kmet’s expectations are increasing for 2024 and beyond with Williams under center. At the very least, he provides Williams with a safety blanket underneath if none of the receivers are open downfield.
Mike Clay of ESPN projected Williams to throw for 3,538 yards as a rookie with 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. His projection also indicates 311 rushing yards with three touchdowns on the ground. That total would be about 10 points higher than his projected “reduction tax” mentioned above, and it’s more proof Williams should be sound under center in 2024.
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Caleb Williams Fantasy Football ADP
Williams currently has an ADP of 102 with a range of 58-112. His ADP right now sits in the lower end of his range, but the number is skewed based on a higher number of redraft leagues. Dynasty leagues are where you see Williams going in the top 60 or top 75 based on upside and potential for growth.
This profile though is focusing on redraft leagues, so an ADP of 102 makes sense for Williams. Everyone knows about his potential, but he still hasn’t proven anything in the NFL.
Williams posted two strong performances in the preseason. His numbers might not look impressive, but they don’t tell the full picture. The connection he has with Odunze is already showing, and he’s making plays with his legs and his arm. Don’t be surprised if Williams ends up being a top 15 fantasy quarterback in 2024. It’s only a matter of when his dominance takes full effect.
Main Photo Courtesy of Sam Greene – The Enquirer – USA Today Sports
