Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been one of the biggest competitive advantages in fantasy football for nearly a decade. Playing a position where fantasy-relevant options are hard to find, Kelce has established himself as one of the greatest receiving threats in NFL history. However, the future Hall of Famer is now 34 years old and showed some signs of slowing down last year. Was this just a mirage, or should you pivot to someone else in fantasy?
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide
2024 Fantasy Football Outlook: Travis Kelce (Redraft)
2023 Review
For only the second time since 2016, Travis Kelce is not the reigning fantasy football TE1. The tight end finished the season with “just” 93 receptions for 984 yards and five touchdowns, making him the TE3 in PPR leagues behind rookie sensation Sam LaPorta and Jacksonville’s Evan Engram. Most tight ends would call Kelce’s 2023 a career season, but by his standards, this season left something to be desired. Despite having an elite quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and minimal target competition, Kelce scored the fewest fantasy points since his 2015 season and didn’t look like himself at various points of the regular season.
The advanced metrics tell a similar story. Once again, we’re splitting hairs here, as Travis Kelce is still one of the best tight ends in real life and fantasy football. However, with that disclaimer out of the way, his 82.6 PFF grade was his lowest since 2015 while his 2.01 yards per route run was his lowest mark since PlayerProfiler started tracking the stat. Maybe this is just a mirage, but generally speaking, pass-catchers don’t get better once they enter their mid-30s.
Anyone who believes Travis Kelce can reclaim his title as the fantasy football TE1 need only look at his playoff film. While he showed signs of slowing down in the regular season, Kelce discovered the Fountain of Youth in January. The tight end recorded 32 receptions for 355 yards and three touchdowns during Kansas City’s four-game run to a Lombardi Trophy and even set a speed record during the big game.
Travis Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 mph on his 22-yard reception to set up the Chiefs' game-tying field goal, Kelce's fastest speed as a ball carrier over the last seven seasons.#SuperBowlLVIII | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/2R3b6kbNjJ
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 12, 2024
2024 Projections vs Average Draft Position
Even with his January resurgence, Travis Kelce slowed down last year and will probably continue his downward trend in fantasy football. This isn’t to say he won’t be good (he definitely will), but he probably won’t be the unstoppable force from years past. Kelce’s production plummeted despite being the only reliable option in Kansas City’s passing attack last year. Over the offseason, the Chiefs added Marquise Brown as a free agent and used a first-round pick on wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
These two will be considerable improvements over Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice will still factor in somehow. As of this posting, we don’t know what type of suspension the league will issue, but assuming it’s not a year-long ban, he will see some targets.
Travis Kelce could still lead this team in targets, but his days of being a 150-target player in fantasy football are probably over. As of this posting, FantasyPros has Kelce going off the board as the TE2 with the 32nd-overall pick. Kelce could finish as the TE2, but this price is a little rich for my blood. Chances are, it’s better to wait on the tight end position, select someone like Mike Evans or D.J. Moore, and then take Mark Andrews a few rounds later.
Main Photo: Sam Greene – USA Today Sports
