Since its inception, the AFC South has been the NFL’s most harmless division. Misfits, expansion teams, and relocated franchises make for a division that’s only won one Super Bowl since it began in 2002. But the AFC South is on the rise following a historic rookie season from Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud.
C.J. Stroud Started an Arms Race in the AFC South
Stroud’s All-Time Rookie Campaign
Stroud was an excellent prospect with refined arm talent, but expectations were low entering year one. Houston won just three games in the previous season, and their top receiver, Brandin Cooks, was no longer on the team. It appeared as if the Texans were setting Stroud up for failure. Instead, Stroud found profound success as a rookie, leading his team to a playoff win and taking home Offensive Rookie of the Year.
On the heels of Stroud’s all-time performance, Houston did what any reasonable team would do: surround him with as much talent as possible while still on a cheap rookie contract. Houston traded for star wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon, ensuring Stroud has no shortage of weapons. In total, the team forked up $142 million in guaranteed money this free agency period.
While Houston was fine-tuning their roster, their divisional rivals were doing the same thing. Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis saw Stroud’s ability firsthand this season. Out of sheer panic that he would dominate their division for the next decade, they realized they had to keep up with the Houston Texans. Thus begins the AFC South arms race.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Technically speaking, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the original owners of Houston’s blueprint. They drafted Trevor Lawrence first overall in 2021, pairing him with a first-year coach and few proven weapons to work with. Unlike Houston’s success story, Jacksonville’s plan blew up in their face.
To Jacksonville’s credit, they’ve bounced back since then. They’ve bolstered a winning record in back-to-back seasons, including a division title and playoff victory. But there’s no doubt Houston put them on notice this season.
With a solid offensive foundation, Jacksonville had little needs on that side of the ball. Still, they know they need to keep stride with Stroud’s Texans and can’t afford to be complacent. Their first order of business was filling the void left by wideout Calvin Ridley. After Ridley left in free agency, Jacksonville made sure they found a respectable replacement, and that’s what they got in Gabe Davis. For good measure, they signed Davis’ former teammate, Mitch Morse, to fill a need at center. Between Davis, Morse, and others, the Jaguars spent more money than any NFL team in free agency.
They didn’t stop there, either. Jacksonville used its first-round pick in this year’s draft on LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas is raw and ran a limited route tree in college, but with his size and speed, he can quickly become a big-play threat in the NFL. If nothing else, it’s another weapon at Lawrence’s disposal for potential shootouts against the Texans.
Tennessee Titans
Unlike the Texans and Jaguars, the Titans are unsure if they already have their quarterback of the future. Second-round rookie Will Levis started nine games last season, and it was a mixed bag. There were phenomenal moments, like his four-touchdown debut and comeback victory over Miami in primetime. But uncertainty remains as issues that troubled Levis in college, like pocket presence, haven’t been fixed.
Tennessee is working around Levis’s flaws to remain competitive in the AFC South. Their offensive line was among the worst in the league a year ago, so they brought in a few new faces. Free agent center Lloyd Cushenberry signed a large, four-year deal to solidify the interior. Alabama tackle J.C. Latham also joins the Tennessee Titans after they selected him with the seventh overall pick.
Tennessee finally recovered from the disastrous A.J. Brown trade, although it cost significant resources. It began last year when signing veteran superstar DeAndre Hopkins, but they need multiple options to keep up with their rivals. General manager Ran Carthon recognized this and offered Calvin Ridley a massive deal to play alongside Hopkins. Tyler Boyd also signed with Tennessee recently, reuniting with his former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan. None of these receivers are elite at this stage in their career, but they’re significant upgrades from what was previously in place. Tennessee built around Levis this offseason to determine whether or not he’s a franchise quarterback. If so, this team can go toe-to-toe against Stroud’s Texans.
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts were one game away from making the playoffs despite quarterback Anthony Richardson missing most of the season. Compared to others in the division, they feel comfortable, and it is reflected in their lack of off-season additions. Indianapolis spent tens of millions of dollars less than their divisional opponents in free agency. Instead, they prioritized continuity and re-signed key players like Michael Pittman Jr., Zaire Franklin, and Kenny Moore II.
Much of their plan to keep up with Houston relies on their quarterback staying healthy. Richardson has tremendous upside, but we didn’t get to see it for long before he got hurt during his rookie campaign. His health and ability to continuously improve will determine the Colts’ success in the AFC South.
One of Indianapolis’s moves that could pay dividends is drafting wide receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round. Receiver wasn’t a position of need, so drafting Mitchell with a top pick speaks to his potential. Mitchell reportedly fell in the draft due to “character concerns” and having Type 1 diabetes. If that sounds ridiculous, Colts GM Chris Ballard agrees, as he swiftly dismissed these ‘issues’ in a press conference. Beyond the noise and narratives is an imposing receiver with all the tools and separation skills to succeed in the NFL.
Main Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
