One thing about the 2024 NFL Draft has already been made clear: if you need a quarterback, this is the year to take one. Well-respected analysts expect upwards of six quarterbacks in the first round of this year’s draft. While this class might produce multiple franchise centerpieces, they aren’t perfect.
2024 Rookie Quarterbacks: Red Flags That Could Impact Their NFL Careers
Caleb Williams – USC
It’s hard to believe there’s a debate on whether Caleb Williams is the QB1 of the 2024 rookie quarterbacks. He exploded onto the scene at Oklahoma as a true freshman and only got better at USC. He won the Heisman a year ago and has been viewed as the next big thing ever since.
Flaws in Williams’ game are few and far between, but they’re still noteworthy for a prospect receiving this much hype. None of his ‘Red Flags’ are worse than his ball security issues. Since the start of his college career, Williams has fumbled the ball 33 times, the most in the nation.
Most of this springs from his eagerness and ability to extend plays. Williams routinely makes otherworldly plays after the play breaks down, but it occasionally backfires. This is partially a result of USC’s defensive deficiencies that put Williams in must-score situations. Still, this issue is inexcusable and Williams will have to take better care of the ball moving forward.
Jayden Daniels – LSU
Nobody expected Jayden Daniels to be in this conversation a year ago, but his Heisman-winning campaign changed the narrative. The fifth-year senior averaged over 300 passing yards and nearly 100 rushing yards per game. Across the board, his numbers are flawless, so I had to dive into his film to find a red flag.
The film reveals Daniels’ poor vision and inability to see the entire field. LSU frequently called plays for Daniels to read one side of the field (rollouts, flood concepts, RPOs) because he struggles to find open receivers. The added benefit of playing with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. certainly helped. Mike Kashuba has Nabers and Thomas listed as top-five wide receivers in this class.
Frankly, Daniels isn’t hindered by this as much as you’d expect. He regularly uses his legs to pick up a first down, even if he missed an open receiver earlier in the play. Daniels is an incredible athlete who will be one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL from day one. He isn’t perfect as a passer, but his rushing ability will come in handy.
Drake Maye – North Carolina
Drake Maye fits the description of a quarterback with all the “tools” to be great. At 6’5″, Maye is an exceptionally fluid runner, and his arm strength is among the best in this class. But being big, strong, and fast isn’t enough to be great in the NFL. Everybody in the NFL is big, strong, and fast.
Where Maye requires improvement is trusting his eyes. He has to see an open receiver before throwing and frequently double-clutches, which shows a lack of trust in what he’s seeing. If the North Carolina native cleans up some technical aspects of his game, he will develop into one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.
J.J. McCarthy – Michigan
One of the greatest mysteries of the 2024 rookie quarterbacks is whether J.J. McCarthy is an NFL-caliber passer or merely a product of his system. There’s no questioning McCarthy’s ability to win games, as his resume includes a 27-1 record and a National Championship win. But he was very sheltered within Michigan’s offense.
McCarthy averaged just 22 pass attempts per game this season, including a victory over Penn State that consisted of 8 attempts. He also threw for fewer than 200 yards per game in both seasons as starting quarterback. His red flag is the question of whether this is sustainable moving forward. Since McCarthy wasn’t asked to do much against collegiate competition, how will he respond to the demands of the NFL?
Only time will tell, and his landing spot in the draft could determine everything.
Bo Nix – Oregon
With 60 career starts in college, Bo Nix is mentally sharper than most incoming rookies. He threw 45 touchdowns and completed 77% of his passes this year while throwing just three interceptions. To put it bluntly, Nix is comparatively old. He started his first college game in 2019, married in 2022, and turns 24 years old next week.
His age is a red flag for some, while others appreciate the workplace experience he brings. Nix’s consistent improvements are respectable, but there’s concern over how effective he’ll be when he isn’t the oldest player on the field. Nix figures to be a high-floor and low-ceiling prospect who will only thrive under the right circumstances.
Michael Penix Jr. – Washington
Similarly to Nix, Michael Penix Jr. played in college for a while before finding a home in the PAC-12. (RIP) Penix’s extended collegiate career is mainly due to his injury history, which looks like a CVS receipt. He tore his ACL twice, banged up his shoulder a couple of times, and took a beating against Michigan in the National Championship.
Entering the NFL with so much wear and tear will be a red flag for teams. His rushing ability is non-existent at this point, and he’s one more significant injury away from serious concern. A promising aspect of his game is his ability to avoid sacks, which usually translates well to the pro level. Penix avoided injuries after transferring from Indiana to Washington as a result of taking fewer hits.
Main Photo: Rob Kinnan – USA Today Sports
