The 2024 NFL Draft is still a few months away, but it’s a foregone conclusion that Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels will be the first three quarterbacks off the board. After that, however, it’s anyone’s guess. Bo Nix, Michael Penix, and J.J. McCarthy are all widely considered to be in the second tier of quarterback prospects, and the media consensus is that guys like these will go off the board either in either the late first round or the second round. Granted, we are a long way away from the NFL Draft and a lot can happen between now and then, but a recent report by Benjamin Allbright of KOA Colorado states that league scouts are not nearly as high on one of those prospects as the rest of NFL media.
If there's one thing I learned today it's that fan/media opinion on Penix is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than league opinion.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) January 19, 2024
For those unfamiliar with Allbright’s work, his track record with the NFL Draft is one of the stronger ones in the league. While nobody’s perfect and everyone has their misses, Allbright generally has his fingers on the pulse, notably predicting that Trey Lance would be a top-three pick and that Kyler Murray would be the first-overall selection long before either opinion was mainstream. Perhaps Michael Penix impresses in interviews and at the NFL Combine over the next few months, but for the time being, we need to consider the real possibility that Washington’s quarterback will not be a first- or even second-round pick, which is a big deal for all the teams actively or passively looking for a new quarterback.
REPORT: Michael Penix Will Fall In the 2024 NFL Draft
This is pure speculation, but the biggest reason for Michael Penix not being in the same tier as Nix and McCarthy is probably due to injuries. The quarterback has endured four years of various ACL injuries, which is not ideal. Football is a physical sport and anyone can get hurt on any given play, so injuries generally have more to do with bad luck than anything else. However, four injuries in five years is hard to ignore, so perhaps Penix’s body simply isn’t built to handle the game. Teams have access to medical information that fans and media members don’t, so perhaps there’s something in his history that suggests he won’t be able to survive NFL contact.
In terms of film-based concerns, there is a reason that Michael Penix is not considered to be in the top tier of quarterback prospects. The Senior guided the Huskies to the National Championship but had a terrible performance against Michigan, and that could impact his draft stock. Additionally, he needs to improve his ability to sense pressure in the pocket, and he’s not always great about making plays in structure. However, while he is rough around the edges, he throws a beautiful deep ball and has arm talent you just can’t teach. Whether it’s in the second or third round, somebody will take a risk on Penix, and these five teams could benefit from a draft plunge.
Possible Team Fits
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are stuck with Derek Carr for at least one more year, and Dennis Allen knows he has to make the playoffs if he wants to keep his job. Because of this, it’s hard to imagine the team investing a first-round pick in a quarterback who cannot help them until at least 2025. However, if Michael Penix is still there in the third round, then perhaps they’d consider drafting him and seeing if he can become their quarterback of the future. New Orleans currently doesn’t have a third-round pick, but they do have a second-round pick from the Denver Broncos. Seeing as there is a three-round gap between their second and third selections, nobody should be surprised if the team trades back to acquire more draft capital on the big day.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith is a fine quarterback, but he’s not the type of guy who can elevate a flawed roster. The Seattle Seahawks are still looking for their next head coach, so it’s hard to predict what they’ll do until we know who is responsible for leading the franchise. With that being said, it’s easy to imagine someone like Dan Quinn being comfortable with Smith as a bridge quarterback while passively looking for a better option. Michael Penix could be the ideal developmental quarterback, as his raw traits are similar to Smith’s. Even if the two play at a similar level, Penix will be on a rookie contract, and that financial flexibility is huge for building a competent roster.
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but this team needs to start thinking about the future. The one-time Super Bowl champion is entering his age-36 season, and they don’t have an heir to the throne on the roster. Yes, the team selected Stetson Bennett in the fourth round last year, but head coach Sean McVay didn’t sound optimistic about his future with the team. In the short term, Michael Penix can be a high-ceiling backup in the event injury strikes while McVay tries to shape him into Stafford’s long-term replacement.
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young had a rookie season to forget, and while the supporting cast was atrocious, Young himself didn’t look all that great. The quarterback needs a second season to show if he can succeed in a more promising environment, but there is a chance that he’s just not cut out for the NFL. If that’s the case, then Carolina will restart their search for a franchise quarterback once again. It’s hard to imagine a team with such limited draft capital investing a Day 2 pick in Michael Penix, but if he falls late into Day 3, the team might just pull the trigger on a high-ceiling dart throw. Say what you will about David Tepper, but he’s never been shy about adding quarterbacks to Carolina’s roster.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are going to be in serious trouble if Kirk Cousins departs in free agency. Cousins was playing some of the best football of his career prior to his season-ending Achilles injury and the team cannot use the franchise tag to retain his services. If Cousins departs, Minnesota will probably sign a bridge quarterback like Ryan Tannehill to be a short-term starter. However, that will still leave them looking for a long-term answer under center. Michael Penix might not be ready to start from Day 1, but a smart offensive coach like Kevin O’Connell could bring out the best in the Washington product.
Main Photo: Thomas Shea – USA Today Sports
