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Keaton Mitchell 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

Keaton Mitchell recently burst onto the dynasty fantasy football scene but what got him here and how should managers value him going forward?
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Keaton Mitchell burst onto the fantasy football scene last week, but does he prove to have any value in dynasty fantasy football leagues? While Mitchell’s status for Sunday is up in the air, he could be a sneaky acquisition for the rest of the season and beyond.

2023 Fantasy Football: Keaton Mitchell Dynasty Outlook

The History

As of now, Mitchell has very little NFL history. He signed to the Ravens as an undrafted rookie and has flown under the radar of the national media.

Coming out of ECU, Mitchell was dubbed a shifty speedster back with excellent receiving ability. He was also considered a plus returner. His skillset made him an immediate fit for Baltimore, the franchise that his father also played for and won a Super Bowl ring with.

In a draft profile for Mitchell, Last Word on Sports’ own Dakota Joslin said that Mitchell was “one of the most electric running backs in the 2023 NFL Draft” due to Mitchell’s “explosive speed and ability to catch out of the backfield”. To conclude, Joslin noted Mitchell’s “big-play potential” as he “has a chance to score from all over the field”.

At ECU, Mitchell managed 3,600 all-purpose yards to go with 28 total touchdowns through three impressive years.

The Situation

Mitchell made waves in training camp. He impressed coaches with his game-breaking speed and effectiveness on special teams. However, the hype was quickly halted after Mitchell was placed on IR to start the season.

Mitchell made his return to the 53-man roster in Week 6’s victory against the Tennessee Titans in London. He got his first NFL reps the following week. His explosion came in Week 9’s dominant win against the Seattle Seahawks. The versatile back logged multiple carries in the first half but truly came into his own when he took over the backfield after it was clear that the Ravens were set to blow Seattle out.

The undrafted rookie finished the Week 9 matchup with 138 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. He caught his only target for a loss of four yards. The excellent performance awarded Mitchell the FedEx Ground Player of the Week Award.

Mitchell’s breakout came as no surprise to Ravens fans that have followed the team closely. The coaching staff’s praise and utilisation of Mitchell in training camp always suggested that the team valued him greater than most undrafted rookies.

The Complications

While recency bias tells us that Mitchell is Baltimore’s next franchise back, there are reasons to remain cautious. But how valid are these concerns?

The first concern that managers have regard Mitchell’s volume. 10 touches is certainly adequate volume for deeper leagues, but makes him a risky boom or bust candidate in leagues with eight or fewer teams. While not all of Mitchell’s touches came after the game was out of sight, the majority did. This makes it seem as though he is merely in a backup role for Baltimore currently.

Baltimore’s effective but varied backfield means that the likes of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will be competing for touches with Mitchell. While Edwards has a distinctly different skillset, the chances are that Hill and Mitchell will need to fight out the rest of the snaps.

Some managers are also of the belief that Mitchell’s opportunities came due to J.K. Dobbins’ season-ending injury. As such, Mitchell yields no long-term value as the team looks to Dobbins’ return or, indeed, to a new franchise back.

However, this would be an unjustified take. Given the hype around Mitchell in the off-season, it was always likely that he would see playing time regardless of Dobbins’ status. Mitchell’s unique skillset and ability to contribute on special teams was always going to guarantee that. As such, he was always poised to exceed expectations in 2023.

Injuries are another concern. Mitchell has had one breakout performance before being listed as questionable. He also started the year on IR. Given Baltimore’s history of banged-up backfields, is Mitchell just another on the conveyor belt? While he remained healthy at college, so did players like Rashod Bateman and Dobbins. However, both have caught Baltimore’s injury bug frequently.

Reasons for Optimism

Undoubtedly, the main reason for optimism is Mitchell’s recent breakout. His good form means that the coaching staff will likely slowly ramp up his workload through the second half of the season.

His success will likely continue in Todd Monken’s offensive system. As the only running back on the team that was specifically selected for Monken’s system, it is more than likely that Mitchell has a future on a team where the offensive system suits him to a tee.

Mitchell’s scope for improvement is another reason to buy his stock. Despite not being fully adapted to the NFL game, the team have already been comfortable trotting him out. Should Mitchell improve his pass blocking ability, among other things, he will likely see more playing time.

A more long-term reason for optimism is that Baltimore’s backfield remains a mess. Dobbins’ situation remains unclear: will he still be with the team in 2024 after a number of injury-riddled years? With Dobbins’ contract situation up in the air, Mitchell could seize the opportunity to move up the pecking order permanently next season.

Keaton Mitchell 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Value

KeepTradeCut tells us that Mitchell’s stock is currently rising. His current stock sits at 2682, which puts values him alongside a 2026 mid-second-round pick. Over the past week, Mitchell’s value has nearly doubled.

As it stands, Mitchell is the 38th ranked running back and the 151st ranked overall player. KeepTradeCut have him valued within his own small subsection of running backs with Tyler Allgeier valued at 2707 and Khalil Herbert at 2551.

What to do with Keaton Mitchell in 2023 for Dynasty Fantasy Football Managers

It is highly likely that Mitchell has already been claimed off waivers in leagues that have 10 or more teams. If he is still on the waiver wire, he is a priority waiver wire target in Week 10.

Rebuilding Teams

Rebuilding teams should value Mitchell on the assumption that his workload will increase in hi sophomore season. Given his current game status, it would be an excellent time to buy now for rebuilding teams to get a young back on the books for next season.

However, managers should be wary of overvaluing him due to recency bias. It is key for rebuilding teams to maximise their assets so hold back on a trade for Mitchell if it compromises too much future resource.

With that said, due to Mitchell’s rising stock, rebuilding managers could also opt to trade Mitchell depending on the offer. Mitchell is unlikely to ever be Baltimore’s franchise back and so rebuilding teams could look to strike a deal with an injury-riddled hopeful that involves a first or second-round pick for Mitchell.

Middle of the Pack

Middle of the pack status in Week 10 is not ideal. However, Mitchell might be a good piece to acquire depending on the likelihood of the team making the playoffs.

If the team is only middle of the pack due to injuries at running back, acquiring Mitchell is the right move as a high upside stopgap for starting backs. Mitchell should not be relied on as a weekly starter due to the lack of volume. For this reason, managers should avoid picking Mitchell up on the premise that he would be a rotational piece.

Contenders

If a contending team has picked up Mitchell off waivers, now is a fantastic time to sell. Mitchell has got the attention of the fantasy football community, and his value is likely as high as it will be this season.

Given Mitchell’s value, contending teams should look to flip Mitchell for an older, high volume back. One name that jumps off the page on KeepTradeCut is James Conner.

Conner is expected to return to action this week and is only valued as the RB36. Through the rest of the season, however, Conner is guaranteed to provide contenders with a guaranteed 10 points on a weekly basis. To get from the RB38 to RB36 is not a big ask but would provide contenders with a legitimate starting option on a weekly basis.

Other names to consider might include Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones or Jerome Ford. Conner provides the best value of all these options though.

Main Photo: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

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