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Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook 2023

Jaylen Waddle was a top 12 fantasy football wide receiver in 2022. Will his success in 2023 be dictated by Tua's injury concerns?
Jaylen Waddle Fantasy

Jaylen Waddle finished as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver in 2022. Waddle alongside Tyreek Hill was one of the best wide receiver duos in the league last season. Waddle is looking for back-to-back WR1 seasons in his second year in Mike McDaniel’s system. Waddle’s production in 2022 was heavily dependent on Tua Tagovailoa’s availability. With that in mind, what is Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy football outlook in 2o23?

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook 2023

Jaylen Waddle 2022 Fantasy Football Review

Waddle finished as a WR1 in 2022, with 75 catches, 1356 yards, and eight touchdowns which put him at 15.2 fantasy points per game in 2022. Waddle only finished 18th in targets but his 18.1 yards per reception landed him in the top seven in receiving yards in 2022.

 

Waddle was top ten in receiving yards, air yards, and yards per route run.

 

The numbers are fantastic but Waddle was hit or miss in 2022. 15.2 PPR points per game, but nine games under 14 fantasy points including five games under 10 points. 27% of Waddle’s fantasy points came in two games. Without those two games, Waddle’s points per game goes down to 12.5 which would have been 26th in 2022. The low targets left Waddle dependent on the big plays, which he provided plenty of. In 2022 Waddle ranked 2nd in the NFL in 40+ yard receptions. His quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa ranked 1st in the NFL in 40+ yard completions. Waddle’s production in the NFL has been dependent on Tua’s health. Between Waddle and Tyreek Hill the combo combined for 51% of the Dolphins targets in 2022.

 

The Dolphins ranked second in the NFL in wide receiver target percentage and dead last in tight end target percentage.

Jaylen Waddle 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

The Miami Dolphins didn’t make any huge offseason acquisitions that would negatively affect targets. They did lose Mike Gesicki and Trent Sheffield who was their third and fourth leading target getters after Waddle. There are 120 vacated targets for 2023, which is a positive for Waddle who struggled to consistently get targets in 2022. He made up for the inconsistent targets by being an amazing deep threat.

 

Waddle’s outlook for 2023 is similar to his outlook for 2022, but less certainty this year with the injuries that Tua sustained in 2022. If Tua is playing the Dolphins should have a great passing game and Waddle should be productive. If that isn’t the case then like last year Waddle will go most weeks being hit or miss. A positive for Waddle when it comes to the Dolphins quarterbacks is that they upgraded at backup by signing former New York Jet Mike White. It remains to be seen if White’s 2022 run was a fluke but it certainly beats running it back with Skylar Thompson.

ADP

Jaylen Waddle’s current ADP is at WR11 in the second round, going ahead of Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. Position wise he is going ahead of Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins and behind Davante Adams. Waddle, Smith, and Higgins are all interesting comparisons with them all being number two receivers.

 

Number two receivers being drafted in the second round is pretty insane let alone three of them. In 2022 Waddle finished one spot above Smith and 10 spots ahead of Higgins. Given Waddle’s target share concerns and quarterback health concerns I like Higgins and Smith better as second round picks this season. I would also feel more comfortable with someone like Keenan Allen who has way less upside but a more consistent PPR floor than Waddle. If Tua stays healthy Waddle does have top five wide receiver upside but taking a boom or bust player in round two is an investment I wouldn’t be comfortable making this season.

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

 

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