Garrett Wilson is most people’s number-one breakout candidate for the 2023 fantasy football season. The reigning AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has a huge upgrade at quarterback in the form of Aaron Rodgers. How high can Wilson climb in the wide receiver rankings? What is his outlook for this year?
Garrett Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
2022 Recap
Wilson was the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He was the second receiver selected. As a rookie Wilson finished with 83 receptions, 1,103 yards, and four touchdowns. Wilson finished as the fantasy WR31, averaging 12.7 points per game. He did this on a New York Jets offense that struggled on offense in 2022. Indeed, three different quarterbacks played at least four games (Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White).
Between Zach Wilson, Flacco, and White the Jets had a rough passing game in 2022. Garrett Wilson made the most of his opportunities still by securing 147 targets as a rookie, which was fifth in the NFL. The receivers that finished ahead of Wilson were the top ranked at the position in 2022. Bad quarterback play is why Wilson’s fantasy points do not reflect his targets.
In 2022, Jets quarterbacks averaged just 11 fantasy points per game. Jets quarterbacks had just 10 redzone touchdowns, with a 42% completion percentage. That impacted Wilson as he only caught five of 19 red zone targets. Just average quarterback play would have put Wilson in the top 12 wide receivers. Wilson’s best stretch came between weeks 7-14. In that stretch, he was WR13, averaging almost 16 PPR points per game.
The most impressive feat in Garrett Wilson’s incredible rookie season was earning 147 targets. This was the most targets a rookie had recorded since 2003, and the second most all time behind Anquan Boldin’s 165.
Garrett Wilson 2.0 will be 🔥🔥🔥
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) May 28, 2023
The Zach Wilson Effect
Garrett Wilson averaged just 8.7 PPR points with Zach Wilson in 2022, including four games under 30 yards. Zach Wilson struggled with injuries in 2022 but was also benched numerous times. The Jets offense with Zach Wilson scored fewer than 20 points five different times including two games scoring just a field goal. Garrett Wilson’s splits with/without Zach Wilson are eye-popping.
The young receiver would have been a top-tier fantasy option without Zach Wilson. Just imagine if Garrett Wilson had a Hall-of-Fame-level quarterback…
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) ADP 13.8, WR9:
His performance with/without Zach Wilson is well-documented by now.
The PPR point-per-game splits:
• 8.6 with Zach
• 17.2 with anyone elseNow he gets an all-time great.
What else to consider?
— The Joe Holka Show (@thejoeholkashow) June 8, 2023
2023 Fantasy Outlook
This off-season, the Jets traded for former Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That is the biggest reason for Wilson’s expected breakout in 2023.
As an individual talent Wilson is phenomenal. However, based on his 2022 season, it is clear that he needs better-than-mediocre quarterback play. That is where Rodgers comes in. The future Hall-of-Famer is one of the most lethal throwers we have ever seen. He has produced multiple WR1 seasons from teammates that include Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, and Greg Jennings. You could argue that Wilson is the most talented receiver that Rodgers has played with, based on draft capital alone.
Rodgers is known as one of the best redzone quarterbacks ever and that is just what Wilson needs. Rodgers has thrown for 79 redzone touchdown passes in the past three seasons, which leads the NFL. In an off year in 2022, Rodgers still threw 18 redzone touchdowns (compare that to how the Jets quarterbacks threw for 10 redzone touchdowns between the three of them). Going from Zach Wilson to Rodgers is one of the biggest quarterback upgrades in NFL history. If Garrett Wilson sees the same number of targets in 2023, he can put up a WR1-type season.
“I love Garrett Wilson. He’s got all the talent in the building. You need your best players to be the best people on your team, he’s definitely one of them. At least one time in practice he does something where you say WOW.”- Aaron Rodgers#Jets
pic.twitter.com/oZYRUq5TVu— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) June 9, 2023
Current ADP
Wilson is going as the WR10 in fantasy drafts currently. Amon-Ra St. Brown is going one spot ahead of him. Getting Wilson at the end of the second round is phenomenal value. Due to the big-play potential that Wilson possesses over St. Brown, there is sufficient reason to take Wilson over the Detroit Lions receiver. Wilson has WR1 upside and getting that at the end of the second round is too good to pass up.
Aaron Rodgers to Garrett Wilson next season is going to be so fun
(🎥 @nyjets)
pic.twitter.com/1SKMjTaqOY— PFF (@PFF) June 6, 2023
Main Photo: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
