DraftKings recently released their projected win totals for the 2023 NFL season, and Sam Hoppen of Betsperts used the data to determine the implied strength of schedule for each NFL team. As expected, the last year’s first-place teams have a harder road than last-place teams, but some divisions are going to go through the gauntlet in 2023.
With DraftKings releasing NFL win totals today, I took a look at each team's strength of schedule based on these implied win percentages.
The Patriots, Bills, and Chiefs have the toughest schedules while the non-Bucs NFC South teams have the easiest schedules. pic.twitter.com/99xw5Okl6E
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) March 25, 2023
The 6 Hardest, Easiest Strength of Schedules In 2023
The Hard Ones
New England Patriots
If the projected strength of schedule is accurate, the New England Patriots are going to be in for a rough time in 2023. Going from Matt Patricia to Bill O’Brien is a massive upgrade, but the rest of the roster didn’t improve too dramatically in the past few months. Seven of New England’s eight wins last year came against backup quarterbacks, or quarterbacks that would later be benched, and they can’t bet on having that type of luck for a second consecutive season. Unless they knock it out of the park in the NFL Draft, they’re probably looking at another season without a playoff appearance.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a much harder schedule this time around, but it’s hard to bet against Josh Allen. Assuming Stefon Diggs stays in Buffalo (and he should) this offense will remain as dangerous as ever
Kansas City Chiefs
See above. If you’re betting against the Kansas City Chiefs, you’re going to lose money. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are the 2020’s version of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and they’ve yet to win fewer than 12 games since Mahomes took over. Last year, they lost Tyreek Hill and still won the Super Bowl, so while this is a difficult schedule, they should be up for the challenge.
Las Vegas Raiders
Poor Raiders fans. After making the playoffs in 2021, Josh McDaniels has done his part to prove that his first head coaching stint wasn’t an accident. McDaniels is a good offensive mind, but it takes more than that to be a reliable head coach. Going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo is a massive downgrade, and the team didn’t do enough in free agency to offset that loss. If Mark Davis can afford to fire him, McDaniels will probably be gone before the end of the season.
Miami Dolphins
It’s impossible to predict the success of the 2023 Miami Dolphins without knowing the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. While he’s no superstar, he is good enough to get the most out of this stacked roster. Assuming he can stay healthy, the Dolphins should push for a Wild Card birth, even with this difficult schedule.
Baltimore Ravens
For the time being, we’re going to assume that Lamar Jackson sticks around for the 2023 season. Jackson is easily the best quarterback option the Ravens have, but even with him under center, this team is going to struggle to find the playoffs against the schedule. Baltimore has not addressed a single one of their team needs in free agency, and Nelson Agholor isn’t going to fix anything.
The Easy Ones
New Orleans Saints
The 2023 New Orleans Saints will look a lot different than their 2022 counterparts, as they have a new quarterback and lost multiple starters along the defensive line. While they probably won’t be real contenders, they should be NFC South favorites and could end up with double-digits wins against this easy schedule.
Atlanta Falcons
Desmond Ridder may or may not be the future of this organization, but he’ll have an easy path to prove his case this year. As someone that is firmly anti-Ridder, the easy schedule probably won’t matter unless the Falcons add a better quarterback in the NFL Draft.
Carolina Panthers
Adjusting to life in the NFL is never easy, but at least this schedule will make the task less daunting for whoever the Panthers select with the first-overall pick. Carolina went 6-6 when Matt Rhule wasn’t running the show, so this team isn’t as far away as some believe. If Carolina’s rookie quarterback hits the ground running, they could challenge the Saints for the division.
Indianapolis Colts
Much like the Atlanta Falcons, the Indianapolis Colts have too many holes on their roster for a weak schedule to mean much of anything. However, it is a good sign for whichever rookie quarterback ends up joining the team.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence is on the path to being an elite quarterback, and Trent Baalke has built a competent roster in Jacksonville for the first time since 2017. This team was going to be dangerous no matter what, but with this schedule, they could make a push for the first-overall seed in the AFC.
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans have officially missed their championship window, and the team seems to know it. The Titans have parted ways with multiple veterans and are reportedly shopping Derrick Henry, so they probably won’t compete for the playoffs, even with a weak schedule. The best thing they could do might be to trade for Trey Lance and see if the former third-overall pick can play.
