Vegas has released their projected win totals for all 32 teams, including the four franchises that comprise the NFC South. This division was the worst in football last year, but each organization has made a few moves with the intention of improving the roster heading into 2023. These transactions have been reflected in the projected odds, but should you bet the over or under on these totals?
Projected Conference Standings per DraftKings Over/Under Win Totals
1. Chiefs 11.5
2. Bengals 11.5
3. Bills 10.5
4. Jaguars 10.5
5. Jets 9.5
6. Chargers 9.5
7. Dolphins 9.5
8. Browns 9.5
9. Ravens 8.5
10. Broncos 8.5
10. Steelers 8.5
12. Patriots 7.5
13. Titans 7.5
— NFL Nerd (@NerdingonNFL) March 26, 2023
Projected Win Totals For Every NFC South Team
New Orleans Saints: 9.5
Vegas appears to think going from Derek Carr to Andy Dalton is a major upgrade. However, statistically speaking, it really isn’t. Last year, Dalton surpassed Carr in PFF grade and the two had very similar EPA/play’s, and that was with Carr having the luxury of throwing to a superstar in Davante Adams. This goes beyond the quarterback, as New Orleans also lost several starters along the defensive line, and has yet to do much to replace them. There are still some good free agents remaining on the market, but it’s probably not enough to get the team to this lofty win total.
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
On paper, the Atlanta Falcons did a lot to improve their roster, signing several big-name free agents to shore up what was one of the weaker rosters in football. However, they still have a massive question mark at the game’s most important position. Desmond Ridder had his moments last year, but the team shouldn’t feel comfortable with him and Taylor Heinicke leading the way for an entire season. If the Falcons are able to draft Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, they should be able to hit the over, but that is a risky wager to make at this point in the season. After all, they have the eighth pick in the draft, so they’ll probably need to trade up to acquire either passer.
Bet: Over, but not feeling good about it
Carolina Panthers: 7.5
The Carolina Panthers started the 2022 season on a 1-4 skid, traded away their best player, and had three different below-average starting quarterbacks. Despite all this, the team still managed to win seven games. Vegas is asking them to win just one more with a better coach and quarterback. CJ Stroud will probably be the first-overall pick, and he’s a clear upgrade on last year’s quarterbacks. Even if he doesn’t start Week 1, Andy Dalton is a perfectly adequate bridge quarterback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the lowest projected win total in the NFC South, and for good reason. Tampa Bay struggled to an 8-9 record last season with Tom Brady under center. The seven-time Super Bowl champion wasn’t his old self last year, but he still singlehandedly won this team a couple of games with last-second miracle performances. Baker Mayfield is no Tom Brady, and 2022 proved that head coach Todd Bowles has learned nothing from his disastrous stint with the New York Jets. The Buccaneers probably have the worst coaching staff in football, an aging roster, and no answer at quarterback. Even if Mayfield plays up to his 2020 level, it still won’t be enough to save this team. With the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Caleb Williams.