New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave had a rookie season to remember. As the clear bright spot on an otherwise underwhelming offense, the Ohio State product immediately established himself as the top receiver in the offense and one of the best young players in the game. However, a deeper dive into the numbers shows that Olave was historically efficient and could establish himself as one of the league’s elite receivers as soon as 2023.
Most yards per route run by a rookie WR over the last 10 years (PFF)
1. 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
2. 2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
3. 2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
4. 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
…
5. 2022 Chris Olave (2.42)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 31, 2023
Chris Olave Had A Historically Good Rookie Season
As you can see, Chris Olave’s rookie season is one for the record books. For those unfamiliar with the statistic, Yards Per Route Run is exactly what it sounds like – an efficiency stat based on how often players actually go out on a pass pattern. While raw volume stats give a general idea of how good a player is, this is unquestionably a better way to determine how effective a player is. After all, you can’t blame someone for not catching a pass on a running play.
Yards per route run is one of the most predictive metrics out there, and the fact that Chris Olave is among such great company implies that his future is insanely bright. Odell Beckham, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase have all had a strong claim as the best wide receiver in football at some point in their careers, and A.J. Brown has been a top-five receiver ever since he came into the league. Based on this, it’s not hard to imagine a world where Olave is widely considered one of the best in the league at this point next year.
Not only is Olave’s yards per route run good by rookie standards, but it was also one of the best in the league, regardless of age. According to PlayerProfiler, Olave’s yards per route was the 10th-best mark in the league, which is obviously impressive, and it’s far from his only elite metric. The wide receiver finished the season ranked 14th in PFF grade, 9th in yards per team pass attempt, and 15th in target share. He also did this while ranking fifth in unrealized air yards.
The Other 2022 Rookie Wide Receivers
Most expected the 2022 wide receiver class to be one of the best in recent memory, and they played up to the hype during their first year in the league. Chris Olave and New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson took the league by storm, while Drake London of the Atlanta Falcons had a strong year in his own right. Most believe that Wilson is the best of the class, although Olave isn’t too far behind, while London comes in at third. However, the numbers don’t necessarily support that.
In terms of PFF grade, all three players finished remarkably close to one another. London had the 11th-best mark (83.2), while Wilson was right behind him at 12 (82.7), and Olave, as previously mentioned, came in at (82.5). Honestly, these players are all so close to each other that the film-based grades are basically a wash, which means it’s time to turn to the advanced metrics.
Chris Olave leads the bunch in yards per route run, but London is right behind him with 2.40, the 11th-best mark in the league. Wilson, interestingly, trails the bunch with 2.02, although he easily had the worst quarterback situation of the three. London’s 29.4% target share led the trio, followed closely by Olave (26.7%) and Wilson (24.9%).
While Wilson leads the trio in most of the volume stats and had the strongest finish to the year, the numbers show that these three all had remarkably similar seasons. Obviously, they’ve only been in the league for one year, so it’s impossible to know who will end up being the best of the bunch. The only sure thing is that the Saints have a young superstar that should help power this team to an NFC South title.
Main Photo: Stephen Lew – USA Today Sports
