Just like that, we already have 15 weeks of NFL football in the books. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 16 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 16 Stream Team | Week 16 Starts and Sits
Week 16 DraftKings Plays
Week 15 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do, and that also goes for fantasy football. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but it also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter #DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 19, 2022
Looking back at Week 15, it was a solid week for recommendations. This week 48% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback and tight end groups led the way at a 60% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver group brought up the rear at a 37.5% success rate. Personally, it was another profitable week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get more profits in the Week 16 DraftKings plays.
- Week 15 – $193 → $303 ($110 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $3,177 → $3,633 ($456 PROFIT)
Daniel Jones (NYG) – $5,600 @ MIN
Daniel Jones has had his typical rollercoaster season this year. He’s had two games of 29+ DraftKings points this year but also two games in the single-digits as well. All in all, Jones has been more good than bad with only four interceptions all season. He’s averaging 17.5 DraftKings points per game on the season. Where Jones has really thrived is with his legs. He has 105 carries for 583 rushing yards. Both of those numbers are fifth-best among all quarterbacks this season. Jones has also had all his best games in great matchups this year. Luckily for him (and for fantasy managers), this matchup is extremely juicy. The Minnesota Vikings secondary is horrible and they’ve allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks in 2022. This game is also being played in a dome and has one of the highest combined totals at 48 points. Add it all up and Jones is easily one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays especially from a point-per-dollar standpoint.
Gardner Minshew (PHI) – $4,800 @ DAL
“Minshew Mania” is back! It would be nice if it was under better circumstances and not due to Jalen Hurts being injured though. Unfortunately, injuries are a part of the game, and Hurts is going to miss this one so Minshew will take over. Fortunately for DFS players, his price was already set before the news broke. Therefore, Minshew is cheaper than plenty of backups on this slate. This is certainly something to take advantage of. The Dallas Cowboys have been a good defense so the matchup specifically isn’t enticing but the overall game environment is. At 47.5 points, this game has one of the highest combined totals on the slate. It will also be played in a dome so Minshew won’t have to deal with the bad weather that many quarterbacks will. Minshew will also run a bit and has a great surrounding cast. Ultimately this price is simply way too low for any quarterback, let alone a competent one in a good setup.
QB1 Saturday in Dallas
Gardner Minshew career stats
And he has been better on the road in his career
3 INTs pic.twitter.com/a2lkvsy5bC
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) December 22, 2022
Others to Consider: Geno Smith (SEA) – $5,800 @ KC, Patrick Mahomes (KC) – $8,400 v SEA, Kirk Cousins (MIN) – $6,300 v NYG
Derrick Henry (TEN) – $8,600 v HOU
Not only is Derrick Henry on his usual late-season tear right now, but he also gets to face off against a very familiar foe: the Houston Texans. They call it “DHember” for a reason and that is because no defender wants to tackle this monster when it’s warm out, let alone have to take that punishment on top of the elements. The Texans have been a massive run funnel this season and have allowed the most DraftKings points to running backs. Henry is averaging 21.0 DraftKings points per game. As previously mentioned, he’s been great lately as well with at least 25 DraftKings points in two straight games now. Henry has also been getting used in the passing game more than ever so he’s becoming less game script dependent than he used to be. As if that wasn’t enough, Henry has at least 200 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Texans in four straight games now. Henry is set up to be easily one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays.
Derrick Henry’s last 4 games against the Texans:
32 rushes, 211 yards, 3 TD, 39.1 FP
22 rushes, 212 yards, 2 TD, 40.4 FP
34 rushes, 250 yards, 2 TD, 35 FP
32 rushes, 219 yards, 2 TD, 35.8 FP pic.twitter.com/q1Z65rYdFx
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 22, 2022
Jerick McKinnon (KC) – $5,900 v SEA
Right now Jerick McKinnon is what many would call a “league winner” for season-long fantasy leagues. He’s been the overall RB1 in back-to-back weeks now. McKinnon has scored at least 34 DraftKings points in both of those games and has done it despite only 16 total carries. He’s been basically prime Christian McCaffrey as a pass-catcher though. In those two games, McKinnon has caught 15 of his 17 targets for 182 yards and three scores. He also rushed for 74 yards and a score on those 16 carries. There is some concern that if Mecole Hardman gets activated in time for this game that he could eat into some of the passing usage that McKinnon has seen. However, it doesn’t seem likely that Hardman is going to play in this one. That should give McKinnon at least one more week with this fantasy-friendly role. He should definitely be able to produce against a Seattle Seahawks defense that has allowed the second-most DraftKings points to running backs in 2022.
Others to Consider: Christian McCaffrey (SF) – $8,800 v WAS, Dalvin Cook (MIN) – $7,200 v NYG, Saquon Barkley (NYG) – $7,900 @ MIN, Isiah Pacheco (KC) – $5,700 v SEA, Kenneth Walker III (SEA) – $6,400 @ KC
DK Metcalf (SEA) – $7,100 @ KC
Heading into the season, it was expected that the Seahawks offense was going to take a massive step backward with the loss of Russell Wilson. Instead, Geno Smith has taken over and has been incredible. It’s enabled both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to have great seasons so far. Unfortunately, the injury bug bit Lockett and he is going to miss this one. It should be to the benefit of Metcalf, though. Metcalf has seen a nice boost in target share when Lockett is off the field. On top of that, the matchup is very juicy in this one. The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this season. They are also 10-point favorites in a game with a 48.5-point implied total. That should lead the Seahawks to plenty of dropbacks in this one to keep up with Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offense. All of this should make Metcalf one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays.
DK Metcalf has been 31% more likely to draw a target with Tyler Lockett off of the field throughout his career.
Metcalf's target per route run rate with Lockett on:
22% — Career
25% — 2021-22
TPRR with Lockett off
29% — Career (143 routes)
34% — 21-22 (79 routes)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 22, 2022
Richie James Jr (NYG) – $3,900 @ MIN
Richie James Jr is not a name that was expected to be a big fantasy factor in 2022 but here we are. James has been sneaky good over the last five games. In that span, he’s scored more than 13 DraftKings points in three of those five games. He’s also seen at least five targets in three of the five games as well. Despite that, his salary has still not risen above the $4,000 threshold. That makes him an incredible value as it’s not often a wide receiver with this level of usage that can be had so cheap. On top of that, the matchup this week is incredible. The Vikings secondary is porous and has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this season. As previously mentioned, this game has one of the best combined totals at 47.5 points and will be played in a dome. Fire up James as a great salary-saving option this week.
Others to Consider: Nelson Agholor (NE) – $3,300 v CIN, Justin Jefferson (MIN) – $9,300 v NYG, CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – $7,500 v PHI, DJ Moore (CAR) – $5,500 v DET, Darius Slayton (NYG) – $5,200 @ MIN, Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – $7,800 @ CAR
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – $4,900 v NYG
Sticking in that same game but on the other sideline, T.J. Hockenson looks like he’s going to be one of the best Week 16 DraftKings plays at tight end. Hockenson has been nothing short of awesome since being traded to the Vikings. He’s now seen at least six targets in seven straight games. In that span, he’s seen at least eight targets in five of those games and at least nine targets in four of the seven games. That’s truly elite usage at the tight end position. Hockenson only has one touchdown in that span otherwise his price would be much higher than it is. Still, the usage is better than basically any tight end not named Travis Kelce. This matchup against the New York Giants isn’t anything special but the game environment is one to target, as mentioned previously.
Top 5 TEs in Expected Fantasy Points
Weeks 13 – 15
Which Tight Ends lead the league in Usage/Volume over the last three weeks?
▫️ Engram with elite usage🔥
▫️ Njoku quietly averaging 7.5 targets/gm
▫️ Hockenson continues high usage role with the Vikings pic.twitter.com/Na1MZE0j0z
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 22, 2022
Jordan Akins (HOU) – $2,900 @ TEN
This is a bit of a deeper dive but Jordan Akins should be able to return good value at his cheap price tag this week. Akins has seen at least five targets in three of the last four games now. He’s also scored double-digit DraftKings points in two of those four games including last week. This week he gets another juicy matchup against the pass-funnel Tennessee Titans. The Titans are extremely tough to run on and the Texans don’t have any semblance of a running game as is. Instead, they will need to pass against this terrible secondary. The Titans have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to tight ends in 2022. Nico Collins will miss another game so that’s more targets to go around.
Others to Consider: Dalton Schultz (DAL) – $4,200 v PHI, Dallas Goedert (PHI) – $4,500 @ DAL, Noah Fant (SEA) – $3,400 @ KC
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I aim to target the heavily favored teams, who usually play with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often, which can help lead to extra sacks, turnovers, and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Gardner Minshew
- RB – Jerick McKinnon
- RB – Derrick Henry
- WR – DK Metcalf
- WR – Nelson Agholor
- WR – Richie James Jr.
- TE – T.J. Hockenson
- Flex – Christian McCaffrey
- DST – Dallas Cowboys
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 16 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 17. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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