Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette is unlikely to suit up in Week 12, paving the way for Rachaad White to earn some fantasy football relevance in the upcoming matchup against the Cleveland Browns. White, a rookie third-round pick, has largely served as the backup running back, but will he thrive with increased opportunity?
READ MORE: Week 12 DraftKings Plays | Week 12 Starts and Sits
Fantasy Football: Rachaad White Without Leonard Fournette
Projecting Usage
Throughout the majority of the year, Leonard Fournette has managed one of the larger workloads in the league. According to PlayerProfiler, the former first-round pick’s 67% opportunity share is 13th in the league, and his 159.5 weighted opportunities are 10th-most in the NFL. Without Fournette currently doubtful to play, somebody is going to step up and fill that role, and that somebody will be White.
Fournette went down midway through Week 10’s contest against the Seattle Seahawks, and White earned a massive workload in his absence. Outside of White and Fournette, the only other running back that saw any action was Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and he only touched the ball twice. White has already usurped Vaughn on the depth chart, and he should inherit the vast majority of Fournette’s vacated touches.
The Rachaad White RB1 agenda 📈 pic.twitter.com/limX10f7Mz
— 𝗗𝗝 (@DJBucsFan) November 25, 2022
From a skill standpoint, White has all the talent required to succeed as the starter. Coming out of college, the Arizona State product had a 88th percentile dominator rating and a 98th percentile target share. He can handle a large workload, and he can also make plays in the passing game, which is vital when Tom Brady is your quarterback. We’ve already seen that these skills will translate to the NFL level, as his 69.2 PFF grade ranks 37th in the league, right between Alvin Kamara and Raheem Mostert. White has the opportunity to see the field and the talent to make the most of his touches, but what will his output actually look like?
Projecting the Matchup
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the worst running teams in the league. After suffering a seemingly-endless array of injuries along the interior offensive line, the team currently ranks dead last in the NFL with a -0.231 EPA/rush. If you’re looking for a silver lining, the team did have some success on the ground against Seattle, but there is no denying that this team struggles to move the ball without Tom Brady’s arm.
Tampa’s Bay inepititude running the ball is matched only by the Cleveland Browns inability to stop the run. Through 11 weeks, the Browns rank dead last by allowing 0.125 EPA/carry to opposing offenses. In many ways, this is what happens when a very stoppable object meets an easily movable force. The Buccaneers love running the ball even when it’s not working, so we can expect White to receive at least 15 carries. This type of workload against a run defense this bad sets a safe floor, but targets and touchdowns set the ceiling.
Fortunately, there should be plenty of both to go around. Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t the same dominant unit from 2020 and 2021, but they have the talent to be great, and they have shown improvement in recent weeks. White has a decent shot of finding the endzone, and he should see plenty of targets. Fournette averaged five targets per game, and White was already averaging an additional 2.5 per game.
Let’s assume White takes Fournette’s five targets, and Vaughn takes the additional 2-3 that usually go to White. This leaves Rachaad White with roughly 20 opportunities, which should be more than enough for a strong fantasy football outing against a subpar defense in a favorable gamescript.
