Just like that, we already have eleven weeks of NFL football in the books. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 12 DraftKings plays.
Week 12 DraftKings Plays
Week 11 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do, and that also goes for fantasy football. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but it also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter #DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) November 21, 2022
Looking back at Week 11, it was a horrible week for recommendations. This week 32% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way at a 100% success rate. Meanwhile, the tight end group brought up the rear at a 40% success rate. Personally, it was a profitable week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get more profits in the Week 12 DraftKings plays.
- Week 11 – $163 → $225 ($62 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $2,566 → $2,620 ($54 PROFIT)
Kyler Murray (ARI) – $6,800 v LAC
It’s no secret that it has been a tough season for Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals this year. Even still he’s averaging 21.3 DraftKings points per game this year which is almost the exact same as Tua Tagovailoa and the narrative around each of them couldn’t be more different. Murray still can get it done with his legs but there is some worry with him coming off a hamstring injury. That being said, he’s been a full participant this week which suggests he’s fully removed from the ailment. This game has a nice offensive environment. The combined total of 48 points is the highest on the slate. This also projects as the fastest-paced game as well. The Cardinals are slight underdogs which helps the potential game script as well and this game is also being played in a dome. Murray’s price has dipped to the lowest point all year because of the injury so take advantage before it jumps back over $7,000 after this week.
Kyler Murray is going to go nuclear in fantasy football down the stretch.
Without Zach Ertz as his safety valve, I anticipate a bump in rushing output. DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown are the best 1-2 punch he's ever had.
And that Week 17 matchup against Atlanta… 🤤
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) November 23, 2022
Geno Smith (SEA) – $6,000 v LV
The year of Geno Smith keeps on rolling in 2022. Smith is averaging 19.5 DraftKings points per game this year and has scored double-digits in every game except one. On the season he’s thrown for 2,474 yards and 17 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Smith still leads the NFL in true completion percentage and that’s something nobody thought would even be possible before the season. This week he gets to face a horrible Las Vegas Raiders defense so the good times should continue. The Raiders have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks so far this year. This game has the second-highest combined total at 47.5 points. The Seattle Seahawks have the fourth-highest implied team total at 25.5 points. Add it all up and Smith looks like one of the best Week 12 DraftKings plays, especially from a point-per-dollar standpoint.
Others to Consider: Bryce Perkins (LAR) – $5,000 @ KC, Tom Brady (TB) – $5,800 @ CLE, Joe Burrow (CIN) – $6,700 @ TEN
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) – $6,900 v LV
Staying in that same game, Kenneth Walker III looks like an incredible play this week. After a slow start to his pro career, he’s been incredible since taking over after Rashaad Penny went down with a season-ending injury. Since that point, Walker III has been one of the best running backs in fantasy football. He’s scored double-digits in all six games including 30+ in two of them. He’s averaging 19.3 DraftKings points per game in that span which is ninth-most among all running backs in that same span. Walker III has also picked up the pace as a pass catcher lately as well. After seeing limited usage as a pass-catcher earlier in the season, he’s now set a career-high in routes run for three consecutive weeks. The most recent week was extremely encouraging as he had an 80.6% route participation. That led to career-highs in both targets (8) and receptions (6). If that continues, Walker III becomes completely game script-proof and a true workhorse running back. This week he gets that same horrible Raiders defense as well and in the same great offensive environment. The Raiders have also allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to running backs this year. Walker III is easily one of the best Week 12 DraftKings plays.
Kenneth Walker: 7 rushing TDs
Leads ALL rookie RBs 👑 pic.twitter.com/LvloEyzcRI
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 21, 2022
Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) – $5,900 v HOU
Speaking of great matchups for running backs, Jeff Wilson Jr. gets the juiciest one of all this week. The Houston Texans have been brutally bad at stopping the run this year and have allowed the most DraftKings points to running backs along the way. Since being traded to the Miami Dolphins Wilson Jr. has rushed for 170 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries and caught five passes for another 45 yards and a score in two games. That amounted to 41.5 DraftKings points in those two games. He’s usurped Raheem Mostert as the lead running back and should see another big workload in this one. The Dolphins have the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.5 points and are 14-point home favorites. They should be running early and often much to the benefit of Wilson Jr. in this one. All signs point to a great outing for Wilson Jr. this weekend against the Texans.
Others to Consider: Austin Ekeler (LAC) – $8,500 @ ARI, Rachaad White (TB) – $5,100 @ CLE, Travis Etienne (JAX) – $6,700 v BAL, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $7,700 @ SEA, Samaje Perine (CIN) – $5,600 @ TEN
Keenan Allen (LAC) – $6,100 @ ARI
It has been a brutal season for Keenan Allen so far. He started off well in Week 1 and looked to be on his way to a big game before leaving that game with a hamstring injury. That hamstring injury has lingered all season and caused him to miss 8 games and the one game in the middle he did try to play he aggravated it. Allen returned last week and immediately saw eight targets and caught five of them for 94 yards. The interesting part was that he only played on 68% of the snaps. It is likely that the Los Angeles Chargers were easing him back in and being careful not to aggravate that hamstring injury. Mike Williams, on the other hand, did aggravate his ankle injury and seems unlikely to play this week. That could lead to Justin Herbert leaning even more heavily on Allen. As previously mentioned, this is a great game environment with a high combined total, a fast pace, and in a dome. All of this should make Allen one of the better Week 12 DraftKings plays.
Keenan Allen in Week 11: 68% snap share, 8 targets, 5 catches, 94 yards
Keenan Allen in Week 12 vs ARI: 📈📈📈
Rankings coming SOON to @The33rdTeamFB site pic.twitter.com/5a69sEVMZJ
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) November 22, 2022
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – $4,300 v CHI
It’s been a rollercoaster season for Garrett Wilson in his rookie campaign. After a breakout week in Week 2 in which caught eight of his 14 targets for 102 yards and two scores, he’s flashed at times but still hasn’t been able to get back into the endzone. A lot of the blame can be placed on quarterback Zach Wilson who has been brutally bad. Luckily for Garrett Wilson (and the rest of the New York Jets), Zach Wilson has been benched in favor of Mike White. Earlier in the season, it was Joe Flacco that powered Wilson to his best games but White should still represent an upgrade at quarterback. That’s great news as Wilson’s salary has dropped dramatically. Wilson is still averaging 11.6 DraftKings points per game this season in spite of the horrible quarterback play. This week he gets to face a Chicago Bears defense that looks better on paper than they are. They seemed strong earlier in the year but dealt some of their best defensive players away and haven’t been as good lately. There is some risk due to so much uncertainty but Wilson is an extremely talented wide receiver and is too cheap this week.
Others to Consider: Chris Godwin (TB) – $6,000 @ CLE, Greg Dortch (ARI) – $3,100 v LAC, Tee Higgins (CIN) – $6,900 @ TEN, Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $5,800 v ATL, Treylon Burks (TEN) – $4,200 v CIN, Davante Adams (LV) – $8,600 @ SEA
Mark Andrews (BAL) – $6,500 @ JAX
The theme of this week is players returning from injuries and being priced too low apparently. Mark Andrews started off the 2022 season scorching hot as he scored double-digit DraftKings points in five of his first six games including 22+ in four of those games. Since that point, he’s been dealing with various injuries that have seriously hampered his production and caused him to two games as well. He returned last week to catch six of his eight targets for 63 yards and 12.3 DraftKings points. For some reason, his salary dropped despite the production and the fact he should be even healthier another week removed from the injuries. On top of that, Rashod Bateman is still out for the season so Lamar Jackson will almost certainly rely very heavily on Andrews in this one. The Jacksonville Jaguars are middle-of-the-road against tight ends but aren’t a matchup to fear. The Baltimore Ravens have a nice implied team total of 23.5 points. Andrews is simply too cheap for his combination of talent and volume and that makes him one of the best Week 12 DraftKings plays, especially in tournaments if he goes overlooked.
Most Rec Yards Among TE
Last 2 Seasons
Travis Kelce 1,865
Mark Andrews 1,849
Dallas Goedert 1,374 pic.twitter.com/kVNTebfPKa
— Pinhead Sports® (@_PinheadSports) November 17, 2022
Hayden Hurst (CIN) – $3,300 @ TEN
The production has been a bit lackluster for Hayden Hurst lately. He’s scored less than nine DraftKings points in three straight games now. Before that, however, Hurst had scored double-digits in three of his previous four games. It’s a bit surprising not to see an uptick in production considering Ja’Marr Chase has been out during this stretch but it’s possible that he benefits from Chase opening up the field a bit more. Hurst has still been running a ton of routes though so that has been very encouraging. On the season he’s run 291 routes which is the fourth-most among all tight ends. His 40 receptions rank ninth among all tight ends as well so he’s still very involved despite the recent dip. That dip has allowed his salary to drop for the third straight week and that’s something to take advantage of in this matchup. The Tennessee Titans are a team that is much easier to attack through the air than on the ground. The Cincinnati Bengals are a team that wants to pass more than run. That could be the case, even more, this week with Joe Mixon ruled out. Chase may be back this week but either way, Hurst looks to be in a great spot to return great value on this slate.
Others to Consider: Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,700 v LAR, Foster Moreau (LV) – $3,400 @ SEA, Tyler Conklin (NYJ) – $3,100 v CHI
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I aim to target the heavily favored teams, who usually play with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Geno Smith
- RB – Josh Jacobs
- RB – Jeff Wilson Jr.
- WR – Tee Higgins
- WR – Keenan Allen
- WR – Garrett Wilson
- TE – Hayden Hurst
- Flex – Kenneth Walker III
- DST – Kansas City Chiefs
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 12 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 13. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
Embed from Getty Images