Just like that, we already have eight weeks of NFL football in the books. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 9 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 9 Stream Team | Week 9 Starts and Sits
Week 9 DraftKings Plays
Week 8 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do, and that also goes for fantasy football. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but it also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter #DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) October 31, 2022
Looking back at Week 8, it was a solid week for recommendations. This week 48% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the tight end group led the way at a 60% success rate. Meanwhile, the quarterback group brought up the rear at a 40% success rate. Personally, it was not a profitable week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get back into the profits in the Week 9 DraftKings plays.
- Week 8 – $251 → $161 ($90 LOSS)
- Year Total – $1,902 → $1,934 ($32 PROFIT)
Josh Allen (BUF) – $8,500 @ NYJ
Josh Allen has been a cheat code once again this year. It’s rare for a quarterback to finish as the QB1 overall in back-to-back years and Allen is pacing to do it in three straight now. It’s simply a perfect mesh of talent and scheme. This year Allen is averaging an absurd 30.1 DraftKings points per game. The Buffalo Bills have been one of the best offenses in the NFL. The New York Jets have been surprisingly good on defense this year but the Bills and Allen are simply too good.
The Bills have the highest implied total on the slate at 29 points and are 11.5-point favorites. If they reach that total Allen will be a huge reason for that. He only needs 21.25 DraftKings points to return good value and has scored below that mark only once this season.
Josh Allen: 20 big time throws
Leads the NFL🚀 pic.twitter.com/IenoMGeYim
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 3, 2022
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – $5,200 v LV
The jury is still out on whether or not Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. With that being said, he’s been solid as a fantasy quarterback this season. Lawrence is averaging 17.1 DraftKings points per game in 2022. He’s topped 18 four times and scored more than 21 points three times so far. This week he should be able to add to that total against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders secondary has been horrible this year. They have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks so far this year. They also have a good offense that should put up points against this Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The game environment sets up very friendly as it has a 47.5-point combined total and the Jaguars are slight underdogs with a 23-point implied total. This has all the makings of a game that could turn into a sneaky shootout and a game script that could make Lawrence one of the best Week 9 DraftKings plays especially from a point-per-dollar standpoint.
Others to Consider: Derek Carr (LV) – $5,400 @ JAX, Justin Fields (CHI) – $5,300 v MIA, Aaron Rodgers (GB) – $5,900 @ DET
Joe Mixon (CIN) – $6,500 v CAR
It’s been a bit of an underwhelming year for Joe Mixon in 2022. After a career year in 2021, he’s been mostly mediocre this year. The big improvement, however, has been in the passing game. Among all running backs, Mixon ranks second in routes run, second in route participation, fourth in targets, and fourth in receptions. This is in addition to being fourth in snap share, fourth in carries, second in red zone touches, and third in expected fantasy points. That’s that sweet, sweet volume you want out of a running back.
Last week, in the first game without Ja’Marr Chase, Mixon saw nine targets. It’s very possible he could continue to see an uptick moving forward. This week against the Carolina Panthers is a great spot for Mixon to have a nice game. The Cincinnati Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites with a 25-point implied team total. With his price dipping to the lowest it’s been all year, Mixon looks like one of the best Week 9 DraftKings plays.
Travis Etienne (JAX) – $6,300 v LV
It took a month or two but we’ve finally arrived at “Travis Etienne workhorse back SZN.” It really only was a matter of time with how explosive he is and how capable he is in the passing game. After topping out at 14.4 DraftKings points in the first six weeks including three single-digit weeks, Etienne has now topped 22 points in consecutive weeks.
Last week he had a career-best 162 total yards on his way to 28.2 DraftKings points. Etienne had 27 touches in that game. This week he gets a juicy matchup against the Raiders. Not only are the Raiders bad against quarterbacks but they don’t do well against running backs either. Alvin Kamara, a player Etienne has been likened to often, demolished them just last week. As previously mentioned, this game has sneaky shootout potential with a 47.5-point combined total. With Etienne being so heavily involved in all facets of the offense, it’s likely that he should smash in this one.
Travis Etienne averages as a starter:
• 21 touches
• 141 yards
• 22 points
He faces LV who allows the 3rd most RB catches…
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) November 4, 2022
Others to Consider: Deon Jackson (IND) – $5,200 @ NE, Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) – $6,200 v IND, Austin Ekeler (LAC) – $8,800 @ ATL, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $7,300 @ JAX, Aaron Jones (GB) – $7,400 @ DET
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) – $7,900 v SEA
DeAndre Hopkins is back like he never left. After missing the first six games due to a PED suspension, he has come back and has not missed a beat. In his two games since returning, Hopkins is averaging an absurd 30.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s caught 22 of his 27 targets for 262 yards and a score over those two games. It’s obviously a small sample size but his per-game stats would lead the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals haven’t been great this year so his return is definitely a welcome sight. They are still playing at a fast pace though. This week they get a great matchup against a surprisingly good Seattle Seahawks squad. This game has one of the highest combined totals on the slate at 49.5 points. The Cardinals have a 25.75-point implied team total and are playing at home, in a dome. Hopkins’ price hasn’t caught up to his production yet and that should make him one of the very best Week 9 Draftkings plays.
D.J. Moore (CAR) – $5,800 @ CIN
He’s back! The nice part though is that the price hasn’t quite caught up yet. That’s because the start of the season was especially brutal. Moore went through a rough stretch that was the worst production of his career since his rookie season. In the last two weeks, he’s caught 13 of his 21 targets for 221 yards and two scores on his way to 50.1 DraftKings points in that span. Moore hadn’t even scored 50.1 DraftKings points in the first six weeks combined.
With P.J. Walker at quarterback, he’s been able to unlock Moore much more than Baker Mayfield was able to. Walker is starting again this week and possibly the rest of the season. The matchup against the Bengals this week should be another good chance for Moore to put up another good game. The Bengals have been fairly good against wide receivers so far but it’s the potential game script that is so enticing. The Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs so they should be throwing early and often, much to the benefit of Moore. Carolina will also be doing their best to win, since the Panthers still have a shot at the playoffs.
D.J. Moore had a 24% target share over the first six games. Only 57% of those targets were deemed catchable — 19 percentage points below NFL average.
Over the last two games, had a 38% target share, and 76% of targets were catchable, per PFF.
Less competition and QB change 📈
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 31, 2022
Others to Consider: Drake London (ATL) – $4,900 v LAC, Chris Godwin (TB) – $6,200 v LAR, Christian Kirk (JAX) – $5,500 v LV, Stefon Diggs (BUF) – $8,400 @ NYJ, Tyler Lockett (SEA) – $6,100 @ ARI, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – $8,900 @ TB
Robert Tonyan (GB) – $3,800 @ DET
Like last week, there aren’t many expensive options at tight end this week with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Dallas Goedert all off the main slate this weekend. There are some good salary-saving options, one of which is Robert Tonyan this week. Tonyan had a great season in 2020 before going down with a knee injury last year. The Green Bay Packers eased him back in this year as he played less than 50% of the snaps in four of the first five games and ran less than 20 routes in all of them.
Tonyan has ramped up the past three weeks though averaging over 26 routes per game and seeing a nice boost in snap share too. That’s helped the production as well as he has caught 18 of 22 targets for 157 yards. This week he gets a juicy matchup against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are a team to pick on each and every week as they can score well enough to push the pace but can’t stop anyone. They have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to tight ends this year. This game has one of the highest combined totals at 49.5 points and the Packers have one of the highest implied team totals at 26.5 points.
Evan Engram (JAX) – $3,300 v LV
Death, taxes, and fantasy managers hating on Evan Engram. These things are inevitable. Ever since his incredible rookie season, Engram has been trying to replicate that success. While he’s never gotten back to those heights, he has been solid despite most people’s thoughts about him. To get an idea of how disliked Engram was, he was being drafted outside the top 20 tight ends and outside the top 170 overall heading into the year. He currently ranks fifth in routes run, seventh in targets, eighth in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, and 13th in fantasy points per game among all tight ends.
As previously mentioned with Lawrence, the matchup against the Raiders secondary is a great one. They don’t do well against opposing tight ends either as they’ve allowed the third-most DraftKings points to the position. This game has sneaky shootout potential as well. Engram is far too cheap for a tight end with his type of volume and in this type of matchup. That makes him one of the better Week 9 DraftKings plays.
Keep starting Evan Engram. He was the Jaguars leading receiver (4-55-1) on 6 targets (21% target share) in Week 8.
He played 93% of the snaps and ran a route on 94% of dropbacks, which is going to provide him with a super-high weekly floor.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 4, 2022
Others to Consider: Tyler Higbee (LAR) – $3,700 @ TB, Kyle Pitts (ATL) – $4,500 v LAC, Hayden Hurst (CIN) – $3,600 v CAR
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I aim to target the heavily favored teams, who usually play with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Justin Fields
- RB – Joe Mixon
- RB – Travis Etienne
- WR – DeAndre Hopkins
- WR – D.J. Moore
- WR – Chris Godwin
- TE – Evan Engram
- Flex – Rhamondre Stevenson
- DST – Seattle Seahawks
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 9 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 10. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!