The Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers just can not stay healthy. Keenan Allen re-aggravated his hamstring injury and will not play this week, and Mike Williams is still recovering from his ankle injury. With these two sidelined, somebody is going to have to catch passes from Justin Herbert, and that somebody is most likely going to be Josh Palmer (assuming the Chargers don’t sign Odell Beckham, of course). Palmer has played well when called upon, but is he ready to be the WR1 in this offense for an extended period of time? Let’s take a look at what the numbers say about his real-life and fantasy football value over the next few weeks.
What To Expect From Josh Palmer Without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Josh Palmer Himself
Before we talk about the opportunity, we need to talk about Josh Palmer himself. Thanks to the Chargers endless stream of injuries, we already know that Palmer has the trust of quarterback Justin Herbert. In his six games played, Palmer has recorded 26 receptions for 240 yards and one touchdown on 40 targets. He’s had a few breakout performances over that timeframe, including a six-catch, 99-yard performance in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Earning the quarterback’s trust is the biggest hurdle to clear, and we know that Palmer is physically capable of putting up a decent stat line. However, the advanced metrics tell us that there’s a reason he’s usually the third option on the depth chart. According to Player Profiler, Palmer’s 1.05 yards per route run ranks 85th in the league among qualifying receivers, while his 58.6 PFF grade makes him the 93rd-best receiver out of 113 eligible players.
Basically, the data shows us that Palmer will get his fair share of targets with Allen and Williams sidelined, but he doesn’t have the talent to consistently make the most of those opportunities. Josh Palmer is a depth receiver for a reason, and he’ll need the right matchup if he’s going to put up notable numbers from a real-life or fantasy football perspective.
The Matchups
The good news for Palmer is that he is facing a very favorable matchup in Week 9. The Chargers face off against the Atlanta Falcons, and they cannot stop anybody through the air. As of this posting, the team ranks 27th in EPA allowed/pass and allows 29.5 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, second-worst in the league. You don’t exactly need to be prime Calvin Johnson to get open against Atlanta’s secondary, so Palmer should be able to put up a good performance in Week 9.
While Atlanta is the easiest matchup on Palmer’s slate, he still has a shot at fantasy football relevance in the following two weeks. The San Francisco 49ers rank eighth in EPA allowed/pass, but they allow an above-average 20.5 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Cornerback is the weak spot on their defense, so once again, Palmer has a decent shot at a solid outing.
If Williams and Allen are still not back by Week 11, Palmer will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have a league-average pass defense, but the high-scoring nature of Kansas City’s offense means that opponents are always throwing the ball to try and keep up with Patrick Mahomes. This is why they allow 25.4 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, third-most in the league.
From a real-life perspective, Josh Palmer is good enough to be the top receiver in this offense for a week or two, but the Chargers are in serious trouble if he has to hold down that role for an extended period of time. From a fantasy football perspective, Josh Palmer will receive enough volume to be a serviceable flex play, but his relative lack of talent keeps him from being anything more than that.
