Just like that, we already have two weeks of NFL football in the books. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 3 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 3 Stream Team
Week 3 DraftKings Plays
Week 2 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do, and that also goes for fantasy football. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but it also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter #DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague@LastWordOnNFL
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) September 19, 2022
Looking back at Week 2, it was a below-average week. This week 44% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way tied at an 80% success rate. Meanwhile, the running back group brought up the rear tied at a 0% success rate. Personally, I was not profitable this week. We’ll look to get in going even better with the picks and get back in the profits in the Week 3 DraftKings plays.
- Week 2 – $250 → $173 ($77 LOSS)
- Year Total – $463 → $440 ($23 LOSS)
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – $7,600 @ WAS
Jalen Hurts has picked up right where he left off last year as an absolute stud in fantasy football. After finishing as the QB6 in fantasy points per game last year with 21.4 he has taken his production to another level this year. So far Hurts is averaging 29.4 fantasy points per game as the QB3. He’s continuing to run at a crazy rate. Through two games Hurts has 28 carries for 147 rushing yards and three scores. That leads all quarterbacks in all three categories. The addition of A.J. Brown has helped his passing as well as he’s currently completing nearly 70% of his passes as opposed to 61.3% last year. This matchup against the Washington Commanders could be a sneaky shootout. Carson Wentz and the Commanders have been able to score well so far so Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles may need to keep their foot on the gas in this one. Either way, if Hurts is going to run this much, he’s going to be an extremely safe and great quarterback option.
Jalen Hurts leads all QBs in …
* yards per pass attempt
* @PFF passing grade
* rushing yards
* rushing TDs
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 23, 2022
Matt Ryan (IND) – $5,200 v KC
After a nice Week 1 debut with the Indianapolis Colts, Matt Ryan was a disaster last week. In the first week, Ryan threw 50 passes for 352 yards on his way to 19 fantasy points. Last week, he only threw 30 passes on his way to four fantasy points. The game environment this week looks a lot more favorable. Like Week 1, this week Ryan and the Colts will get to play in a dome, which is much more conducive to the passing game for both sides. He should also get his best weapon, Michael Pittman Jr., back. Pittman Jr. missed last week’s game but is on track to play in this one. The Colts currently sit as 5.5-point underdogs so the projected game script is one in which Ryan will need to throw more than usual. This game also has one of the highest combined game totals on the slate at 50.5 points so it could turn into a shootout as long as Ryan and the Colts can keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Others to Consider: Kirk Cousins (MIN) – $6,700 v DET, Marcus Mariota (ATL) – $5,500 @ SEA, Geno Smith (SEA) – $5,000 v ATL
Leonard Fournette (TB) – $6,500 v GB
You can probably count on one hand the amount of running backs that have better usage than Leonard Fournette. You can maybe count on one finger the amount of running backs that I’d rank ahead of Fournette on a point-per-dollar basis this week. He had a very nice Week 1 with 18.70 fantasy points but followed it up with a disappointing 9.40-point performance last week. Last week can be chalked up to a tough matchup. The encouraging part is that Fournette had 20+ carries each week so far and is still very involved in the passing game. He may only have six targets and four receptions so far but he ran a route on 71% of dropbacks last week so more targets and receptions are on the way. That should especially be true this week with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones all likely out. The matchup against the Green Bay Packers looks like a good one as they just allowed a huge day to David Montgomery.
Top RB snap rates from the early slate per @PFF:
Christian McCaffrey 91%
Leonard Fournette 87%
Saquon Barkley 84%
Every-down backs with big days ahead.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 19, 2022
David Montgomery (CHI) – $5,900 v HOU
Speaking of David Montgomery, he might be that only running back that looks to be a better point-per-dollar play on this slate. He is somewhat like the discount version of Fournette which makes sense considering he is a literal discount on DraftKings this week. Like Fournette, Montgomery has had one good game and one bad game. He also has six targets but slightly fewer carries per game. Montgomery is on a worse team as well with a quarterback who likely won’t throw to the running back as much either so it’s not as friendly of an environment. Even still, he should see 15-20 carries on a weekly basis as well as 2-3 receptions. That volume is tough to find, especially at this price point. The matchup against the Houston Texans is a juicy one. The Texans have allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs so far although most of that production came in the opening week as they got gashed by Jonathan Taylor. Even still, this is one of the few games the Chicago Bears will be favored as they are currently three-point favorites. Montgomery should be heavily involved if the game script goes that way and have a great shot at returning great value this weekend.
Others to Consider: Austin Ekeler (LAC) – $8,000 v JAX, Joe Mixon (CIN) – $7,600 @ NYJ, Josh Jacobs (LV) – $5,400 @ TEN, Dameon Pierce (HOU) – $5,000 @ CHI, Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) – $5,800 @ SEA
Stefon Diggs (BUF) – $7,700 @ MIA
It looks like Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen are on another level right now. After a near 30-point performance for Diggs in a Week 1 Buffalo Bills thrashing of the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, Diggs went nuclear last week. In Week 2 he put up 47.8 fantasy points. On the season Diggs already has 20 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns through two games. It doesn’t look like he or Allen and the Bills will be slowing down anytime soon. This week they get to take on the Miami Dolphins. This game has the highest combined total of any game at 53 points. The Bills have the second-highest implied team total at 29 points. The Dolphins are coming off the biggest shootout of the week last week and a game where they got shredded by Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills have an even more explosive passing offense with Diggs as the centerpiece. His salary already came out before that monster game, otherwise, he would likely be much more expensive. Take advantage of this one-week discount on one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Jakobi Meyers (NE) – $5,000 v BAL
Jakobi Meyers stays underrated every single week. He just goes out there and gets it done week in and week out. Yet for some reason, his price (and roster percentage) stays low. It may be because he doesn’t seem to score a bunch of touchdowns and doesn’t seem to have many “boom” games, but he’s a great option in full PPR scoring settings such as DraftKings. The New England Patriots also don’t inspire much excitement as an offense either as they like to slow the game down and run the ball. This week Meyers gets a juicy matchup against the Ravens secondary that is allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far. They just got torched by the Dolphins’ explosive duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Meyers is nowhere near the athlete of those two, but he should have no issue getting to his spots and gaining yards against this secondary. Make sure to keep an eye out as he popped up on the injury report this week with a knee issue, but if he’s good to go, Meyers looks like one of the best value options this week.
Jakobi Meyers has run 918 routes since the start of 2020.
43 receivers have run 900+ routes during that time. Here are the ones with both a higher target and yard per route run rate than Jakobi Meyers:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 23, 2022
Others to Consider: Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $5,800 @ CHI, Tee Higgins (CIN) – $6,100 @ NYJ, Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) – $6,900 v KC, Cooper Kupp (LAR) – $9,900 @ ARI, Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – $7,200 @ MIN, Curtis Samuel (WAS) – $5,100 v PHI
Zach Ertz (ARI) – $4,600 v LAR
This week doesn’t look like a great week to spend big at the tight-end position. Sure, a guy like Travis Kelce is always in consideration as a play, but as it sits right now, there aren’t as many super cheap value plays at other positions to allow us to get up to Kelce’s expensive price tag. With that being said, Zach Ertz has been heavily involved so far for the Arizona Cardinals. This should have been expected with DeAndre Hopkins suspended and Rondale Moore injured. Ertz has scored at least 11 fantasy points in both games so far. This week should be no different. The Cardinals are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL and are playing at home, in a dome, against another fast-paced, high-powered offense in the Rams. The combined team total currently sits at 48.5 points. That is one of the higher combined totals on the slate. The Cardinals are also 3.5-point underdogs as of now. All things point to the Cardinals throwing a lot in this one, much to the benefit of Ertz.
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) – $3,100 v DET
Irv Smith Jr. was eased back into the offense in Week 1 after coming off a thumb injury in the preseason. He only played 19 of 62 snaps in that game. Last week, that snap share jumped from 28% to 57% and it paid dividends. Smith Jr. saw eight targets and caught five of them for 36 yards and a touchdown. That was good for 14.6 fantasy points, a great game for a tight end. For some reason, his salary went down this week. Not only is he coming off a good game, but this matchup presents one of the best offensive environments of the weekend. The matchup against the Detroit Lions is a great one as they are giving up plenty of yards and points. This game is also in a dome. It also has the second-highest combined total on the slate at 52.5 points. This game has everything we look for in a potential shootout and Smith Jr. is such a great value option given the game environment and how involved he is.
#Vikings TE Irv Smith (finger) was eased in Week 1. Back to better role Week 2:
* 34-of-61 snaps (56%)
* 14 inline, 12 slot, 8 wide
* 30 routes on 50 Kirk Cousins dropbacks (60%)
* 8 targets for a 17.3% share
* 5-36-1 result
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 20, 2022
Others to Consider: Kyle Pitts (ATL) – $4,800 @ SEA, Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,900 @ IND, Tyler Higbee (LAR) – $4,500 @ ARI
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I aim to target the heavily favored teams as they usually play with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Matt Ryan
- RB – David Montgomery
- RB – Joe Mixon
- WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR – Michael Pittman Jr.
- WR – Jakobi Meyers
- TE – Irv Smith Jr.
- Flex – Leonard Fournette
- DST – Carolina Panthers
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 3 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 4. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
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