Week 13 is right around the corner and, just like always, it’s time to look at Underdog Fantasy for all the top prop bets of the week. As usual, most of the listed bets could go either way, but there are a few that stand out as must-bets.
Top NFL Week 13 Prop Bets
Alexander Mattison: UNDER 103.5 Rush+Receiving Yards
Dalvin Cook will not play in Week 13, but that doesn’t mean that Alexander Mattison is going to be a 1:1 replacement. Historically, Mattison has handled that role, but that had a lot to do with the underwhelming depth chart. The Vikings now have a reliable third-stringer in Kene Ngwangwu, and he will take away a few of Mattison’s opportunities.
Ngwangwu had a great profile coming out of college, but his draft stock plummeted due to his torn Achilles. Running backs historically struggle to recapture their burst after such a setback, but we’ve already seen plenty of proof that Ngwangwu has the explosiveness required to handle life in the NFL. You basically need complete control of your backfield to hit over 100 rushing and receiving yards, and Ngwangwu’s presence probably means that Mattison falls short of that goal.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 3, 2021
Jaylen Waddle: OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle has been one of the most productive rookie wide receivers in the league. The Alabama product has recorded more than 67 receiving yards in four of his last seven contests, and two of those misses came by a combined seven yards.
These aren’t just fluky performances either, as Waddle has the volume to make you believe this production is sustainable. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the starting lineup, Waddle has averaged a staggering 9.5 targets per game. With Will Fuller gone and DeVante Parker questionable, Waddle should continue to be the focal point of this passing attack.
Laviska Shenault: UNDER 48.5 Receiving Yards
Stop trying to make Laviska Shenault happen. It’s not going to happen. No matter how many injuries strike, Urban Meyer continuously finds reasons for Laviska Shenault to not get the football. Last week, the former second-round pick ran fewer routes than Laquon Treadwell, and it’s hard to see that changing any time soon. Meyer said that receivers were running the wrong routes in Week 12 and, while he didn’t mention him by name, it’s safe to assume he was talking about Shenault.
I’m convinced the more I watch it, Laviska ran the wrong route on final Jags play today. Could be wrong. I also think he ran wrong route earlier in game. I think he’s done that a handful of times the last month. It’s really hard to know for sure but appears that way.
— Brent Martineau (@BrentASJax) November 29, 2021
Rob Gronkowski: OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have arguably the deepest group of weapons in the league, but Tom Brady has a clear favorite. When fully healthy, Rob Gronkowski is the go-to option in this passing attack. After a mediocre 2020, Gronkowski is back to looking like his 2017 self, and the results speak for themselves. He’s hit the over in three of his four healthy games (he left the Rams game early, so I’m not including that) and his target share is second to none. This is one of the safest Week 13 prop bets on the slate and should be included in any betting.
Rob Gronkowski is targeted more than any other tight end in the NFL on a per route basis (min 150 routes):
26% — Rob Gronkowski
24% — Darren Waller
22% — Mark Andrews
22% — George Kittle
21% — Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Noah Fant, Pat Freiermuth, T.J. Hockenson
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 29, 2021
Mike Williams: UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards
After a hot start to the season, Mike Williams is back to being his usual self, which means you should bet the under. With his current usage, Williams is nothing more than a low volume, boom-or-bust play that needs to make the most of his limited targets to hit the over. Williams has recorded fewer than 57 receiving yards in four of his last six, and he finished one of those games with exactly 58 yards. Maybe he finds a new team in free agency and breaks out then, but for now, he just doesn’t have the volume to justify betting the over.
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