Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Best DraftKings DFS Plays for NFL Week 11

Week 11 DraftKings Plays - AJ Dillon and Michael Gallup should have fantastic outings in DFS and should lead to a hefty payout.
Week 11 DraftKings Plays

Week 10 is in the books and it’s on to the next one. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at the best Week 11 DraftKings plays.

Week 11 DraftKings Plays: AJ Dillon, Michael Gallup, and More

Week 10 Recap

It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.

Looking back at Week 10, it was much better than Week 9. This week 48% of the recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the running back group led the way with an 85.7% success rate. Meanwhile, the wide receiver group brought up the rear this week with a 12.5% success rate. It was another week in the negative, unfortunately. The cash build won all seven of the double-ups and went 14-0 in H2H’s. We’ll look to do even better with the picks and keep making money in the Week 11 DraftKings plays.

  • Week 10 – $366 → $864 ($498 PROFIT)
  • Year Total – $3,243 → $3,787 ($544 PROFIT)

Week 11 DraftKings Plays

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – $7,600 v DAL

Remember that time when everyone was so worried that the league had figured out Patrick Mahomes and that he wasn’t a great quarterback? Yeah, that was cute. After struggling for three weeks in a row, Mahomes reminded everyone why he’s one of the best quarterbacks to ever do it. Last week he put up 406 yards and five touchdowns on his way to 39.2 DraftKings points. This week could be more of the same as the Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Dallas Cowboys in the premier matchup of the week. This game has by far the highest combined total at 56.5 points. Everyone and their brother is expecting a high-scoring shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL. Assuming that comes to fruition, Mahomes will likely be heavily involved in the scoring and could be in line for another monster game.

Cam Newton (CAR) – $5,100 v WFT

He’s Back! Cam Newton hadn’t played in a football game all year and came right in to score on his first two snaps. The first was a classic Newton rushing touchdown on the goal line. The next score was a passing touchdown to Robby Anderson also along the goal line. The goal line is where Newton does most of his damage and should be able to do well again this weekend against a banged-up Washington Football Team defense. Washington will be without both Chase Young and Montez Sweat and has already allowed the most DraftKings points to quarterbacks so far this year. There are definitely questions about Newton’s ability as a passer at this point in his career considering how he played last year, but this time he has much better weapons to help him out. Additionally, he’s still a big threat on the ground and at this price, he doesn’t need to do much to return great value.

Others to Consider: Lamar Jackson (BAL) – $8,000 @ CHI, Derek Carr (LV) – $5,900 v CIN, Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – $5,500 @ NYJ

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – $8,900 v WFT

Anytime Christian McCaffrey is under $10,000 he’s a great play. The price is starting to creep back up again but it’s nowhere near where it should be. Last week McCaffrey scored 26.1 DraftKings points. The amazing thing is that he did so without scoring a touchdown or getting either of the yardage bonuses. Even more amazing was that he also only played 59% of the snaps. Part of that was because the Carolina Panthers were blowing out the Arizona Cardinals but he’s also only a couple of weeks removed from a hamstring issue that caused him to miss five games. As mentioned previously, Washington’s defense is extremely banged up and wasn’t playing well to begin with. They’ve allowed more through the air than on the ground but McCaffrey is also heavily involved in the passing game. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Newton rely on a familiar face and lean on McCaffrey in the passing game as well. If he sees another jump in snap share again this week, he should have no problem having a great game.

AJ Dillon (GB) – $6,200 @ MIN

There’s certainly a fascination in daily fantasy sports with playing the backup running backs after the starter goes down with an injury. It makes sense too, especially when the nominal “backup” is very good. That’s the case this week with AJ Dillon. Running back is a largely replaceable position and more volume-dependent than any other position. Therefore if the starter goes down, the backup is likely to step into a massive role and their salary on DraftKings is going to be lower than it should. Dillon is a bit pricier than most backups usually are but he is also better than most as well. The matchup is nice in this one. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been in the bottom-third against running backs this year. The combined total currently sits at 47.5 and the Green Bay Packers are one-point favorites. Dillon should also be involved in the passing game as well and will likely be one of the most popular running backs this week.

David Montgomery (CHI) – $5,500 v BAL

Last week was David Montgomery’s first week back from a knee injury and the Chicago Bears had no issues throwing him back in there as a true workhorse. He played 85% of the snaps and saw 13 carries and two targets. Montgomery was able to rack up 80 scoreless yards on that workload. While the 10 DraftKings points were nothing to write home about, it was extremely encouraging to see that type of workload in his first game back. This week’s matchup against the Baltimore Ravens isn’t anything special but it’s better than last week’s matchup. The Ravens also aren’t a defense to avoid either. This 44.5-point combined total isn’t anything special either but this one is all about that sweet volume. Montgomery should see at least 15 touches again in this one and that’s hard to pass up at this price.

Others to Consider: D’Andre Swift (DET) – $7,000 @ CLE, James Conner (ARI) – 6,100 @ SEA, Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) – $5,100 @ JAX, Mark Ingram (NO) – $5,400 @ PHI

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams (GB) – $8,400 @ MIN

Davante Adams has become the Christian McCaffrey of wide receivers. There’s generally not any other player at their position that you feel safer about the workload each week. This season Adams has an absurd 34.6% target share. He’s also averaging 19.8 DraftKings points per game and hasn’t had a game below 10 points yet. Adams is the definition of a wide receiver with both a high floor and a high ceiling. This week he gets an amazing matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings secondary has been atrocious this season. They’ve allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to wide receivers this year. This game also has one of the higher combined totals on the slate at 47.5 points. Aaron Jones is out so there’s the possibility they lean on the pass a bit more, although AJ Dillon is more than capable of handling a massive workload. This one is also being played in Minnesota, which is nice because it will be played in a dome, giving a boost to the passing games. When paying up at wide receiver, Adams looks like a great choice.

Tee Higgins (CIN) – $5,400 @ LV

It feels like Tee Higgins has been a great play all season and has been consistently underpriced. Ja’Marr Chase has stolen all the spotlight, and rightfully so, but Higgins has been quietly consistent all year for the Cincinnati Bengals. On the season he has a 24.6% target share. Higgins has seen at least six targets in every game except the season opener. He’s also scored between 10 and 17 DraftKings points in every game except one as well. The Bengals started out the season extremely run-heavy but have transitioned to more pass-heavy lately. This week’s matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders may not seem great at first glance but there’s a lot to like. This game has the second-highest combined total on the slate at 50.5 points. The Raiders have been very fast-paced and pass-heavy, especially lately, so this is a nice pace-up spot for the Bengals. This game is also being played in a dome as well which should boost the passing games a bit. Higgins looks like he could be one of the best values once again this week.

Michael Gallup (DAL) – $4,200 @ KC

Early on in the week, Michael Gallup was a very good play at this price. As the week progressed, Gallup became an incredible play at this price. Amari Cooper was ruled out due to COVID which should help Gallup see a few extra targets in this one. As mentioned before, this game has the best game environment of any game on the slate. It has by far the highest combined total and should also be a fast-paced game as well. Last week was Gallup’s first week back from injury. He only played 53% of the snaps and still saw five targets. In the season opener, he played 60% of the snaps and saw seven targets. This week he should see a much larger snap and target share. The Chiefs defense has not been good either so Gallup should be able to take advantage of the matchup and extra playing time.

Others to Consider: Tyreek Hill (KC) – $8,200 v DAL, Tyler Lockett (SEA) –  $6,000 v ARI, Jaylen Waddle (MIA) – $5,600 @ NYJ, Rashod Bateman (BAL) – $4,500 @ CHI, Marcus Johnson (TEN) – $3,500 v HOU

Tight Ends

Darren Waller (LV) – $6,100 v CIN

After a very strong season opener, Darren Waller has been somewhat of a disappointment throughout the rest of the year so far. He topped out at 16.2 DraftKings points and scored single-digits twice. It hasn’t been for a lack of usage though. Waller has seen at least seven targets in every game this year except one. His 24.6% target share and 71 targets both rank second among all tight ends this year. Waller also has 44 receptions for 494 yards which rank fourth and fifth respectively among all tight ends. The biggest hindrance has been a lack of touchdowns. He scored one in the season opener but only one since that point. Touchdown variance can swing any given game so the underlying usage is still there for him to be a truly elite tight end. As mentioned before, this is one of the best game environments on the slate since it’s being played in a dome and has the second-highest combined total. Waller should be involved early and often in this one.

Cole Kmet (CHI) – $3,400 v BAL

Don’t look now but over the last few weeks, Cole Kmet has been coming on strong. In that span, he’s seen 20 targets total with at least six in all three games. It hasn’t translated into a ton of production so far but it’s clear that Kmet has become a trusted option in this Bears offense for rookie quarterback Justin Fields. On the season he played over 80% of snaps and ran a route on over 70% of dropbacks so far, both of which are very encouraging signs moving forward. This week’s matchup against the Ravens is a nice one. The Ravens have been getting beat up by opposing tight ends this year. They’ve allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to tight ends so far this season. If Kmet keeps up his current trend and sees at least six targets in this one, he has a great chance of returning great value this week.

Others to Consider: Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,100 v DAL, Dan Arnold (JAX) – $4,100 v SF, Adam Trautman (NO) – $3,300 @ PHI

Defense/Special Teams

In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favored teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.

My Tentative Cash Game Lineup

  • QB – Derek Carr
  • RB – Mark Ingram
  • RB – AJ Dillon
  • WR – Davante Adams
  • WR – Tee Higgins
  • WR – Michael Gallup
  • TE – Darren Waller
  • Flex – Jeff Wilson
  • DST – Cleveland Browns

Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 11 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 12. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!

[pickup_prop id=”15369″]

Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images

Post Views: 25

Share:

More Posts

Send Us A Message