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Fantasy Football Values and Fades for Week 1

Identifying Fantasy Football Value and Possible Fades for Week 1: an assessment of starter/bench options for beginning your fantasy season.

The beginning of the 2021 NFL season is upon us! There are already so many questions of where one can find fantasy football value and when to avoid certain players. This piece endeavors to answer the question of which players you should lock into your starting lineups. It also aims to outline which players you should bench for the opening week of the season.

Identifying Fantasy Football Value and Possible Fades for Week 1

Fantasy Football Values

Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback — Tennessee Titans:

Ryan Tannehill is and has been continuously underrated since he left the Miami Dolphins back in 2019. Since his first start for the Tennessee Titans in Week 7 of 2019, he has been the overall QB7 in fantasy points. He threw for 55 touchdowns and added 11 touchdowns on the ground during this time. Tannehill was again a steal in fantasy drafts this year and should feature in Week 1 starting lineups everywhere. This game looks to be one of the highest scoring of the week.

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James Robinson, Running Back — Jacksonville Jaguars:

James Robinson was RB5 in half-PPR fantasy leagues last year. The undrafted rookie sensation on the league’s worst team was every fantasy manager’s waiver-wire dream. That said, after the Jaguars drafted star back Travis Etienne in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Robinson’s numbers were expected to significantly decline in this new-look offense. Combining an unfortunate season-ending injury in preseason with the woeful Houston Texans as Jacksonville’s Week 1 opponent, expect Robinson back to RB1 form (for this week at least). Even though regression is likely due to the way the Jaguars will divvy out their offensive touches this year, fire him up as a solid RB2 for the season opener.

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Michael Pittman, Wide Receiver — Indianapolis Colts:

Michael Pittman, Jr. is the current (and potentially season-long) WR1 for the Indianapolis Colts. Veteran receiver T.Y. Hilton is out for at least a few games with a neck injury. Expect the Indianapolis second-year receiver to soak up more of the target share than in his breakout-adjacent rookie year. Start him for a game in which the Colts need to open up the field against a powerful Seattle aerial attack.

Tyler Higbee, Tight End — Los Angeles Rams:

After Gerald Everett joined L.A.’s division rival, the Seattle Seahawks, Tyler Higbee became the undisputed TE1 of the Los Angeles Rams. This comes at a time where he expects to see the best quarterback play of his career. Their opponents, the Bears, ranked second-worst in fantasy points allowed against tight ends last year. Since the Rams will come out of the gate with many questions at the running back position, expect Higbee to receive some attention, particularly down in the red zone. This attention should bolster his fantasy football value in Week 1.

Fantasy Football Fades

Justin Herbert, Quarterback — Los Angeles Chargers:

While Justin Herbert was drafted as QB1 for most fantasy managers, the regular-season opener against a stout Washington Football Team defense isn’t shaping up to be the best of circumstances for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Entering the season ranked number-one overall against the pass, Washington is a tough matchup for Herbert, who will have his work cut out for him on Sunday.

As good as Herbert was last year (and he was very good), when Austin Ekeler returned from a month-and-a-half absence due to a hamstring injury is when Herbert’s overall fantasy production dropped. The Chargers were in far more competitive games when allowing the offense to run through Ekeler. With Ekeler again battling a hamstring injury heading into Sunday, no one knows what to expect out of opening day from Herbert. They’ll have to figure all of this out against Chase Young’s crew to start the season.

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Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, Running Backs — Buffalo Bills:

The two primary running backs for the Buffalo Bills are virtually guaranteed to receive touches in one of the league’s top offenses. They were selected in most fantasy drafts to fill the FLEX role in many formats. As was shown last season with Josh Allen’s mobility, the quarterback is the primary back in the red zone. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary combined for only six rushing touchdowns in all of 2020 and did little through the air to complement their lack of rushing upside. Avoid them both in a game against a top-rated Pittsburgh Steelers rush defense in Week 1. They will likely be touchdown-dependent, which is difficult to count on.

DeVante Parker, Wide Receiver — Miami Dolphins:

Another player who wasn’t at the top of everyone’s radar but at a quick glance seems like a smart start on paper is the receiver for the Miami Dolphins , DeVante Parker. Will Fuller V faces a suspension in Week 1, while rookie Jaylen Waddle is not expected to receive the lion’s share of attention in his debut. Nonetheless, Waddle reuniting with his former Alabama signal caller makes the veteran seem like a safe bet. However, between the incredibly difficult matchup with the New England Patriots secondary and the lack of expected overall points, this is a projected Week 1 WR1 you should leave on the bench.

Dallas Goedert, Tight End — Philadelphia Eagles:

Dallas Goedert appeared as if he would become an up-and-coming fantasy tight end throughout the off-season. This was before the return of Zach Ertz. Even though the matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is mouthwatering, it’s too much of a guess this first week to try to figure out the roles the two tight ends will have in this brand new offense.

Season Opener Bonus: Deep Value and Fade Options

Value: Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback — Pittsburgh Steelers:

Admittedly, this probably isn’t the quarterback most people are excited about in this game. Roethlisberger does not appear poised for a big fantasy year this season. He is currently on waivers in more than 60 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues.

Rookie running back Najee Harris looks to explode onto the scene to help the Steelers become more balanced in 2021, but expect the veteran signal-caller to air out the ball to his trio of exceptional receivers in this matchup with the Bills. He has great fantasy football value if you are looking for upside right out of the gate.

Fade: James Conner, Running Back — Arizona Cardinals:

Similar to the situation with the Buffalo running attack, there are two potential fantasy threats in the Arizona Cardinals backfield. Chase Edmonds, who has been a pass-catching, change-of-pace back for his entire career, looks to have stepped into the starting role. Former Pittsburgh workhorse James Conner was then brought on board, throwing a wrench in things. Can Edmonds be an every-down back? Does Arizona want that? Will Conner take over Kenyan Drake’s role from the previous season? At the very least, will he receive the goal-line runs to cap Edmonds’s fantasy football value?

The answers to these questions are yet unknown. Nonetheless, Edmonds is the one in this backfield who provides the most upside with his pass-catching ability. This is particularly true in the red zone, where he had identical numbers to Alvin Kamara in 2020 (10 receptions and four touchdowns). Keep Conner on the bench until his role is more established, especially in this matchup with the high-octane Titans.

Fade: Colts D/ST:

This is a weird one. Not necessarily a specific player, this is still one of the most popular fantasy defenses in drafts this season. While they are an astounding unit, expect the likes of Russell Wilson and company to keep that in check on opening weekend.

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