Trevor Lawrence is the cause of a new hope for Jacksonville Jaguars fans. He is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. But Lawrence has his work cut out for him in 2021. The Jaguars were 1-15 last season and did not have any 1000 yard receivers. Luckily, the team added Marvin Jones as a reliable veteran free agent. Lawrence’s success will depend in part on the mostly young receiving corps’ ability to step up this year. Lawrence ending his rookie campaign as a top 10 fantasy quarterback is not an outrageous assertion. Justin Herbert was the ninth ranked fantasy quarterback last year. Though Lawrence has a young receiving arsenal, it is a diverse group, which should help the rookie make the transition to the NFL.
2021 Fantasy Football Outlook: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence’s Arsenal
It will be important for Lawrence to have reliable receiving options as a rookie. Although the team does not have a true number one receiver such as a DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams, there are some intriguing and reliable options.
D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault are all virtual locks to make the 53 man roster and to be the top three wideouts. Jones is the longest tenured in the NFL of the three and has had nine touchdowns each of the past two seasons. Chark is coming off of a down year (due to injuries), but has the potential to be a number one receiver. While the word gadget has been associated with Shenault, he is more than that and should be a threat in the slot.
Jamal Agnew, Collin Johnson, Laquon Treadwell, Tavon Austin, and Phillip Dorsett are all fighting for the last three wide receiver spots. Many believe that Agnew will make the team due to his return abilities. That leaves two spots up for grabs. Johnson has done well in camp as well as Treadwell (a former first round pick), so they are likely to round out the top six receivers. The tight end position is less than stellar. However, James O’Shaughnessy should provide the biggest receiving threat from the tight end room.
2021 Projection
The Jaguars did their best to add to the receiving corps in the off-season. Jones was added in free agency and Travis Etienne was added in the draft. Although the new talent is not ‘star-studded’, Lawrence has a chance to quickly turn the offense around.
Lawrence is a rookie, so it is hard to project how his first season will go from a fantasy standpoint. Herbert may be a good blueprint for how Lawrence might do this season. Herbert threw for 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions as a rookie. That was good for 332.8 fantasy points and a top nine finish. Many believe Lawrence to be a generational talent, so the ceiling of his stats will be right up there with Herbert, who set the rookie touchdown pass record last year. Lawrence has the weapons to throw for over 4000 yards and above 25 touchdowns.
The biggest wild card in the equation is Lawrence’s offensive line. In week one of the preseason, the Jaguars first string line had trouble against Cleveland’s second string defense. If they can figure things out in the regular season, Lawrence will be dangerous.
Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Football Average Draft Position
As of 17 August, Fantasy Data has Trevor Lawrence as the 14th quarterback off the board with an average draft position of 113.3. This puts him right behind Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow and a few spots above Baker Mayfield and Trey Lance. While this is a little high for the average rookie, Lawrence is a number one overall pick and that comes with high expectations. Lawrence’s ceiling is surely high.
In a 1o or 12 team league, it would be smart to pick a solid veteran before picking Lawrence. He should produce, but there is no need to reach. In fact, Lawrence may need the first few weeks to get up to speed before he has a break out fantasy performance. Roster the number one pick, and be ready to play him if he has a hot start.
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