Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson is one of the most interesting players in fantasy football. Based on expected usage, the former third-round pick should have been one of the most successful players in the league last year. However, drops, injuries, and poor quarterback play limited his overall finish. With Ben Roethlisberger coming back for one more year, can the Toledo product put together a top-12 finish?
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2021 Fantasy Football Outlook: Diontae Johnson
2020 Recap
Diontae Johnson had a good-but-not-great sophomore season. Appearing in 15 games, the wide receiver finished the year with 88 receptions for 923 yards and seven touchdowns. This made him the WR21 in PPR leagues, although he easily could have had a much better finish.
Over the offseason, I have built a model that predicts expected fantasy points based on air yards, red zone looks, and overall targets. According to my data, Diontae Johnson was the WR8 in expected fantasy points per game. Overall finishes can be a little misleading, as one or two big games can skew the average (see: Lockett, Tyler).
Consistency matters, and there weren’t many players more consistent than Johnson. By my calculations, Johnson was second in the league with 54% of games producing an expected WR1 finish. Keep in mind that this data is somewhat skewed against Johnson, as he left two games early to injury.
While Johnson wasn’t quite able to perform up to expectation, it wasn’t due to a lack of talent. The wide receiver was one of the best in the league at getting open. According to Reception Perception, Johnson finished in the 95th percentile for success rate against man coverage and the 86th percentile for success rate against press. This shows that Johnson is a great wide receiver and has the talent to put up a better finish.
Johnson’s biggest issue last year was drops, but drops aren’t that big of a deal in fantasy football. Surprisingly enough, Johnson’s 18 drops since 2019 are tied with Tyreek Hill for third-most in the league. Drops are going to happen when you get targeted at a high rate, and it’s no reason to fade a talented player.
Most drops since 2019 (including playoffs, PFF)
D.K. Metcalf 20
Michael Gallup 20
Diontae Johnson 18
Tyreek Hill 18
Stefon Diggs 17
Mike Evans 16If you don't hold drops against DK, Gallup, Hill, Diggs and Evans in fantasy football land (you shouldn't), don't do so for Johnson
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 28, 2021
2021 Projection
Johnson should have been great in 2020, and that success should come to some sort of fruition in 2021. Year-to-year consistency is key in fantasy football, as eliminating unknown variables makes it a lot easier to predict what will happen in any given season.
The most important components to any passing attack are the quarterback, coaching staff, and offensive weapons. Ben Roethlisberger is back for (presumably) one last season, which means he should continue to target Johnson at a very high rate. Mike Tomlin is still the head coach, and the supporting cast of Chase Claypool and Juju Smith-Schuster are both back in 2021. Claypool will probably earn a larger target share in his second year, but everything else should be exactly as it was in 2020.
This identical situation is both good and bad for Johnson. We know that Ben Roethlisberger loves to target Johnson, and there is no reason to expect that to change in 2021. However, Roethlisberger clearly isn’t the player he once was and isn’t capable of getting the ball to Johnson as efficiently as some other quarterbacks.
https://twitter.com/DLPatsThoughts/status/1374674108160561152?s=20
Roethlisberger’s decline does put a ceiling on Johnson’s potential, but the fact remains that volume alone should ensure a high finish. As of this posting, FantasyData.com currently has Johnson as the 22nd receiver off the board. This puts him right in the same range as guys like Kenny Golladay and Tyler Lockett, making Johnson one of the biggest values in fantasy football. The combination of volume and talent is rare to come across, and he should be an auto-pick in the fourth round. Look for Johnson to finish the year as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2.
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