The Carolina Panthers have their answer at quarterback after giving up three pics to acquire Sam Darnold from the New York Jets. Donald hasn’t played all that well in the NFL, but he’s had to suffer through arguably the worst situation in the league. Now armed with D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey, does Sam Darnold have what it takes to make some fantasy football magic in a new environment?
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Fantasy Football: How Sam Darnold Affects D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Christian McCaffrey
Sam Darnold’s Tendencies
Before we talk about weapons, we need to talk about the quarterback. Scheme and receiving talent obviously play a role in determining output, and we’ll get there in a second. However, everything goes through the quarterback, so he should be the first thing we look at.
Throughout the course of his career, Sam Darnold has actually been able to provide some sustained fantasy success for his top receivers. In 2020, Jamison Crowder was the WR25 on a per-game basis, and that includes games where he left early due to injury.
Darnold battled through mono in the first half of 2019 and wasn’t really himself until week 10. However, from that point forward, Crowder was the WR 17 and Robby Anderson was the WR 24. While these obviously aren’t superstar numbers by any stretch of the imagination, they show that Darnold isn’t going to actively sabotage a season.
Historically speaking, Darnold prefers targeting the slot receiver in his office. Jamison Crowder served that role over the past two seasons, and the former fourth round pick averaged 106 targets per 16 games. Again, that includes multiple games were Crowder left early due to injury, thus negatively skewing the average. Anderson exclusively played on the outside during his time in New York and only averaged 95 targets per season. By comparison, the former undrafted free agent had 136 targets last year and 114 during his time with the New York Jets in 2017.
Darnold prefers throwing to receivers, but he’s not afraid to target a talented running back. The Jets didn’t have one of those in 2020 but they did in 2019. Running back Le’Veon Bell finish the 2019 season with 78 targets and was on a 16 game pace of 62 targets during weeks 10 to 17. Again, nothing fantastic, but it’s serviceable.
Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football Outlook
Now that we know what Darnold likes to do as a quarterback, let’s take a look at the weapons. When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is easily the most dominant force in fantasy football. The former first round pick had one of the best seasons in recent memory in 2019, and averaged a staggering 30.1 PPR points in his three games played last year. He’s a bona fide stud, and it’s hard to see Sam Darnold changing that.
Even with a new quarterback, this offense is still going to go through Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey proved that he’s an elite option with a wide variety of quarterbacks, As he is produced fantastic results with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Teddy Bridgewater. Stylistically, it’s hard to think of a more diverse trio than that, yet McCaffrey remained elite throughout all of those quarterback changes.
Running back targets tend to have more to do with the quarterback than the actual running back, and we know Darnold will target guys out of the backfield. Even if he didn’t, McCaffrey is the exception to the rule. Cam Newton never targeted running backs before McCaffrey showed up yet McCaffrey still saw 113 targets as a rookie.
There are very few quarterback-proof players in fantasy football, and Christian McCaffrey is one of them. He should still be the first overall pick and re-draft formats and one of the most valuable assets and all of your dynasty leagues.
D.J. Moore Fantasy Football Outlook
This is where things get interesting. D.J. Moore spent the majority of his first two seasons working is Karolina’s primary slot receiver. While the former first round pick a line out wide and when his roots, Ron Rivera preferred to use him in the short and intermediate passing game.
However, first your head coach Matt Rhule had a different philosophy. According to player profiler, Moore only spent 15.9% of his snaps in the slot in size average depth of target jump all the way to 13.4 yards. In many ways, he became what Robby Anderson was in New York. Moore succeeded in this role, but one could easily argue that it didn’t play to his strengths.
Even with Curtis Samuel out of the picture, it’s hard to see Moore‘s role changing all that much. Robby Anderson had a higher slot snap percentage, and McCaffrey will definitely see you sometime in the slot as well. However that doesn’t say that Moore is going to have a bad season. Sam Darnold is probably a better deep thrower than Teddy Bridgewater, and Darnold has been able to give some sustained success to talented players in this role. Moore finished as the WR 25 in 15 games last year and will probably be able to beat that. Assuming health, look for him to finish in the WR 15-20 range with Darnold.
Robby Anderson Fantasy Football Outlook
Robby Anderson is probably the biggest beneficiary of this move. Obviously, he has already developed chemistry with Sam Darnold, and that’s definitely going to help us overall production. However, a deeper dive shows that there is even more reason to be excited about his upcoming year.
As previously mentioned, Curtis Samuel served as Carolina’s primary slot receiver last year. Samuel is currently with the Washington Football Team, meaning that all of his snaps and targets need to go somewhere. Anderson is the best bet to receive these targets as he spent 26.5% of his snaps in the slot.
This is the making of a perfect storm for Robby Anderson. Quarterbacks in the new system tend to fall into old tendencies, which is fantastic news for the former undrafted free agent. Darnold love slot receivers, and he has a proven report with Anderson. Robby Anderson isn’t a sexy name in fantasy football, but he did finish his 2020s WR 19 and PPR. With Samuel gone and Darnold around, you should be able to beat out his previous season. Even though I don’t believe he’s as talented as Moore, the volume alone will put him in the WR 13 to 18 range.
